Friday, November 19, 2010
Augean stables getting cleaned? What a stink...
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
There's something about them...
Monday, November 08, 2010
Goa!



Tuesday, November 02, 2010
New York, New York
Weird rules spoil the game
Saturday, October 30, 2010
HOMP
The court should ask Manmohan Singh this question...
"You (CBI) have not done anything. The matter is serious. The same minister is still continuing today. Is that the way the government functions?
Do you follow the same standards in respect of everyone? One year has (already) gone by," a bench comprising Justices G S Singhvi and A K Ganguly said. The remarks of the bench came as soon as Additional Solicitor General (ASG) Haren Raval began responding to the submissions made by the counsel for an NGO which has brought the issue before the apex court.
The ASG said the enormity, complexity and volume of the documents involved in the issue required some more time to complete the investigation. "We have so many phone calls to examine," Raval said.
However, his submission was cut short by the Bench which said "it's only slipshod. You are dragging your feet". Raval then resumed his submission and said the complex nature of the issue was the reason the investigations into the scam has taken some time. He said that to maintain continuity, the investigation is being carried out in right earnest and senior officials of competence are conducting the investigations into all aspects of the matter.
At this point, the bench shot back "will it take another 10 years?"
A Case of Exploding Mangoes
Saturday, October 09, 2010
They don't make 'em like the old times anymore
On a super short and totally unnecessary trip to the US, which involved a total of 32 hours of flying time (and 10 hours of transit time) in a total period of 94 hours, I have seen 7 movies so far. I’m typing this on the aircraft, trying to relieve my mental inertia, and I have 5 more hours of flying time to go. I may watch some more. The list so far includes Iron Man 2, Shrek Forever After, Wall Street (the old one), Robin Hood (the new one), Badmash Company, The Untouchables and Clash of the Titans.
Most of these movies are just a pile of junk. Iron Man 2 is so juvenile that its funny. Robin Hood (and I had great expectations from Russel Crowe) is no Gladiator – it is just dull and dreary. Irony - the merry men are somber and depressed. Badmash Company is puerile and Shrek is just repetitive and boring. The less said about Clash of the Titans the better – it is a shoddy attempt to make a Lord of the Rings type movie – it just falls flat. The only two worthwhile movies are the golden oldies. Wall Street, which I’ve seen umpteen times but which still captivates with its voyeuristic glimpses into the world of glamour and serious money, though the events in the movie seem quaint now in this age of derivatives and algorithmic trading. The pick of the lot is certainly Brian De Palma’s The Untouchables. It tells the story of the capture of Al Capone. It also tells me why America is a great nation, and will remain the foremost nation in our generation, never mind recessions, double-dips or Sarah Palin. Power packed with Kevin Costner, Sean Connery, Robert De Niro and Andy Garcia (the pick of the lot, I thought), it depicts the power of the individual over the system. I cannot see such a thing happening in India (nor any other country).
I wonder why new movies are just not in the same league as the old classics. Is it because we have moved away from the dramatic core, powerful scripts and simple ideas into animated wizardry? The top grosser of all time – Avatar – was so bereft of any emotional core that I was left wondering if I really saw the original. Give me Casablanca any day!
Now for number eight – perhaps Juno for the 2nd time? Or Rocket Singh?
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
An eventful week
Friday, September 17, 2010
Bravo!
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Rich (and nasty)?
There is something surprising about a private banker warning his colleagues about the rich. It would be like a director ofVolkswagen AG casting doubt on motorists, or the boss ofMcDonald’s Corp. distancing himself from people who eat fast food. Rather like valets, the main aim of the private banker is to court the wealthy.
At a conference in Zurich last week, the head of Barclays Wealth Management’s private-banking unit, Gerard Aquilina, appeared to issue a red alert about the richest of clients.
“Beware of the complexities of dealing with ultra high net worths,” Aquilina told his audience. “Demanding and often unreasonable” requests from them may create “impossible demands on the organization.”
Such as? Help with getting children into the right school, securing credit to buy property, or obtaining last-minute concert tickets, for example. Even worse, the richest of the rich turn out to be pretty stingy as well. They don’t even want to pay the full fee for all the services they demand.
It was strong stuff. But it was also an insight into the way the rich have changed over the past decade. They are, it turns out, a nasty bunch of people who are only getting nastier. And the banking industry only has itself to blame.
Customer Demands
To some degree, Aquilina’s warning can be seen as the kind of observation you find in every industry. Executives in any business tend to feel the real trouble always comes from the customer, who is often stupid, unreasonable and annoying, and sometimes all of the above.
No doubt, the software engineers at Microsoft Corp. fume about all those blockheads who don’t know how to partition their hard drive, or re-configure the registry file. There must be countless airline executives who occasionally dream about how smoothly their planes would circle the globe if only they didn’t have to fill them up with stupid tourists, their snotty children, and their overstuffed bags.
It’s always the case that people are going to be irritated by those they have to serve. There’s no reason that even super- smooth private bankers should be exempt from that. But Aquilina makes an interesting point.
There is an increasing amount of evidence that the rich are a vicious tribe of people. One study last year from the University of California, Berkeley, found that the rich are ruder than others. Another piece of research, conducted at the same institution, concluded they were less likely togive to charity than poorer people were. A third study, carried out at the Humboldt University in Berlin, concluded they were “nastier,” in the sense of being keener to punish others.
Top of Tree
Nothing is shocking about that. You don’t get to be rich without being difficult and demanding. You need some sharp elbows to get to the top of the tree, and there is no point in being squeamish about treading on a few toes along the way. And the rich have a lot more to protect than other people: They have to be fierce to hang on to all that wealth.
They have probably been vicious ever since one caveman used a bigger club to take control of the grandest cave on the hill.
In the past, most fortunes were built in association with ordinary people. Factory owners were aware of the shop-floor workers on whom their wealth depended, and that shaped the view of themselves. Carmaker Henry Ford doubled his workers’ average pay to $5 a day in 1913 and shortened their working hours. The Cadbury family of chocolate makers in the U.K. built a small town for many of the company’s workers in Bournville, near Birmingham, in the 19th century. That made them more human.
The growth of the financial-services industry and the bonus culture has changed that. The investment bankers and hedge-fund managers who make up most of the new rich elite don’t have much contact with ordinary people. They assume their wealth is entirely the result of their own brilliance. And they cut themselves off from normal life.
It is an industry that mints billionaires and also breeds arrogance, selfishness and snobbishness.
Aquilina has put a spotlight on an industry that only has itself to blame. Maybe that’s why he’s warning others.
(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of “Bust,” a forthcoming book on the Greek debt crisis. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Is this guy for real?
Oil Should Be Around $10 a Barrel: Analyst
The price of a barrel of oil would be closer to $10 if the commodity wasn't traded as an investment instrument, given the record-high levels of U.S. oil inventories, Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, told CNBC Monday.
"I honestly think that if there were no investors using oil as an asset that the price of oil right now would be $10 or $15 or $18, but it wouldn't be anywhere near where it is," Beutel said.
"We have so much oil right now, more than we've had in 27 years. Why is it 27 years? Because that's how far our records go back. It's probably the most in 50 or 100 years," he added.
Part of the reason the price of oil is currently above $74 (BIS: US@CL.1) a barrel is because of a belief in the economic recovery, Beutel said.
Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke over the weekend gave the commodity a boost as he signalled a willingness to support the fragile economic recovery with additional policy measures.
From a historical perspective, Beutel pointed out that the current level of inventories is even higher than when the price of oil was below $20 a barrel.
"We've got 50 million barrels of crude more than we had two years ago. We have 176 million of distillate," Beutel said. "When I started in the business back in 1980 we used to think to ourselves: "Gee, we would love it if we had 140 million barrels of distillates to start the winter."
Not all market watchers agree that the price of oil should or will go lower. Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services, told CNBC that he thinks oil will rise to between $82 and $85 a barrel.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Investment thoughts
- Oil marketing companies - in the next 1 week, all the 3 oil marketing companies (IOC, HPCL, BPCL) will pay out 2-3.3% of their current market value as dividends. This will be tax free in the hands of the shareholder. If one has spare money lying around in the bank, one can earn the equivalent of interest for the whole year in 1 week. And the best part is that it is going to be tax free! Of course the stock price will get adjusted downwards for the payout, but here the bet is on a continuing weak global economy and consequent weak oil prices. If crude oil prices remain below $73 per barrel, I think the oil marketing companies will rise in value at least 5-10% from here. It is a big IF, but I am comfortable with the risk / reward here.
- Tata Motors - sales of the Jaguar and Land Rover are picking up. The domestic business is going great guns - commercial vehicles are on a roll, the Nano is ramping up volumes, and demand for the Indica / Indigo are robust. If Jaguar and Land Rover sales sustain at the current trajectory, it will a) magnify earnings per share because of the highly leveraged capital structure of the company b) allow quick de-levering (high leverage has been a major overhang on the stock) and c) lead to a re-rating in the p/e or ev / ebitda multiples. The multiplicative effect of these 3 drivers could lead to $$$ returns! The rewards should more than compensate for the risk of downside.
- Tata Steel - a sentimental favourite for me. Currently trading at lower than 5 year average valuations due to fears about Corus performance. The brain likes it because a) the India operations are superb (lowest cost producer in the world), b) most of Corus' losses stemmed from the fixed costs at a particular plant, which has since been shuttered and put on the block and c) the Tata group have managed to turn around all of their global acquisitions - Tetley a decade ago to Jaguar Land Rover a couple of years ago. The heart likes it for reasons unknown! Overall risk / reward seems quite favourable.
- Sell or short Suzlon. Loads of debt (approx 10x EBITDA), negative EBITDA (high fixed costs), no new orders internationally in the last 3-4 quarters and general poor perception of quality (broken blades being a big issue with its windmills). The company does not have enough cash to even service its debt, let alone pay the principal back. As of now, seems like a candidate for bankruptcy. Again, I dislike this stock sentimentally for reasons unknown.
- Reliance Industries - because this is the big daddy of Indian stocks and has underperformed the Index by 30% this year. This cannot continue - either RIL should rise or the Nifty must fall. Long RIL - Short Nifty is one trade that suggests itself
Pyaar ke side effects
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Disillusioned
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Did you know?
Sunday, August 01, 2010
Completing the troika
Answering these questions is "The Greatest Trade Ever" by The Wall Street Journal's reporter Greg Zuckerman. The book traces the history, demeanor and turning points in John Paulson's life, as well as the thoughts behind the trade that led to a $4 billion payout in 2008.Thursday, July 15, 2010
Road trip to Shimla








