The end of a dream?

Today I spotted a Toyota Fortuner on the road - the first time I saw the car outside of a picture or a website.

Unfortunately for me, it was quite a disappointment! I first mistook it for some version of the Innova, then double checked the name, and finally figured that the damn thing does not remotely resemble a power-packed animal. No doubt it is very efficient and indeed powerful, it just does not look so! I think the key factor is the ground clearance - our desi cars have high clearance and a higher back, while the firang cars (while more elegant) have lower centers of gravity and rounded backs. A bit of crudeness is missing!

Give me the Scorpio or the Safari anyday (till then I can dream about the Land Rover and the Audi Q7)!

Some photographs:

Fortuner:

Land Rover:

Q7:

Scorpio:

Tata Safari:

How much is too much?

A question that a lot of people have asked me, and I many! How much is enough? What is the magic 'x' amount of money/assets/material stuff that if one owns, one does not desire anymore?

Clearly, unlike the ultimate answer to the question of life, the universe and everything, the answer is not 'forty two' or any other number. It cannot be, is my personal experience. When I was an engineering student, I used to think a salary of 40k per month was the end-all of most dreams. Then the investment banks came in and spoiled us with dreams of many zeros at the end of some obscene number of dollars in annual compensation. The bar kept rising higher and higher (as indeed did inflation - of houses, cars, food, everything else).

My buddy, who probably earns in fractions of millions of USD in Hong Kong, has also undergone the same phenomena. Last when we spoke of such things, he said he would be happy with something that gave him risk free income of some x amount. Needless to say, he has surpassed that target quite some time ago, but is still on the hunt for more mammon. He sometimes feels unhappy at his pace of life, but on the whole the feeling of being on-the-move energizes him.

Of course, money is not the only thing most people desire. I always like to read the stupid celebrity interviews where the subject is asked to rate by order of priority - fame, money and power. Invariably fame and power get higher billings than money. This is true for a lot of us as well. Money is just a way of keeping score!

The answer to the question therefore, in my mind, is truly what you limit yourself to - and also what you can aspire to. It is a bit like Maslow's heirarchy - when one target is met, one automatically moves to the next one, because without targets there is only boredom. Rare (and very lucky) is the person who has enough! How does this mythical dude entertain himself??

The big bear turns positive on India

Nouriel Roubini shot to fame thanks to the global financial meltdown of 2008. He didn't make too much money out of being right (unlike John Paulson or George Soros), but certainly earned name and fame!

Since his heyday at the height (depth?) of the armageddon in October 2008, he has been as vocal as before, but not quite so prescient, as markets everywhere have ignored his calls of doom, and have rallied massively. It is interesting to see what the big bear says about Indian markets now...

And surprise surprise! The guy predicts new highs for us next year. The reasons he gives are: 1) The USD carry trade and 2) the fact that India is the top pick in the emerging economy universe and is relatively scarce (i.e. foreign investment can come into India only in the equity market, not through debt, real estate or other investment classes). Both points are well taken.

But I start getting sceptical when the sceptics start becoming believers!! Will Mr. Roubini be right this time? That is the trillion INR question :-)

More on politics

Thanks DD for this pic - check out the gold on this 'social worker'!

This is what we have become

Politics always repulsed me. But our politicians every single day plumb new depths, and still retain their ability to deeply wound and trouble me. Today I am ashamed to be part of this venal, hypocritical and spineless country. It has a doomed future.

The immediate provocation - a common thug, whose only claim to fame is that he is related to so-and-so, with a very very calculated and cynical eye to a vote bank, commands a diktat which is illegal, unconstitutional and immoral. He says that new MLAs to the Maharashtra assembly should only take their oath in Marathi. While this in itself should be reason enough to put the guy in jail for the rest of his sorry life, what actually happens is that one particular person takes the oath in Hindi, and 4 MLAs from the thug's gang actually beat up this person in the assembly in full view of cameras, security and the country. These people are elected representatives who are supposed to frame our laws.

But what gets my goat is this - I quote verbatim: Eknath Khadse, the BJP group leader, called for a sympathetic view of the entire incident. "Nobody supports what happened today. But, there is nothing wrong in checking the footage again to verify the MNS claim that it was Azmi who had provoked them through his body language," he said. Khadse said since it was the first day of the new house, a lenient view should be taken.

Indeed. Punish the victim. This is what we have become. This is what we stand for. We have lost all humanity, dignity, and morality. We are doomed.

Alliterative flights

Mom: You need to lose all that unwanted ungainly weight

Me: Verily wanton weight

Unwelcome unwholesome weight

Ultimately ululating weight

and then later (staring ahead on an airplane):

Me: Verisimilitudinally vituperative weight
Finally my favourite: Vacuously vaccilating weight!!!

Art.. and a new vocation :-)

The wife is very artistic, and spiritual to boot. She has demonstrated an aptitude for a dazzling new career :-) Meet Mata Gayatri Devi (drumbeat roll....).

The following pics say it all...

Old email folders

I happened to look through some old email folders recently (the kind that you file away while you were a young student and never look at again), and I was amazed to see that I had worked with some really great people!

Even when I was just a (supposedly lowly) intern, in a (supposedly parochial) country where I did not speak the language, there were these guys who were super friendly, considerate and helpful! While I did not value all this at the time, I really am quite touched to read those emails again as the memories come flooding back! Really, there is so much more to life than the pursuit of money and constant compromises to achieve this pursuit. Work is something we all do, and a enabling work environment really does wonders for productivity and efficiency. In my earlier avatar as a management consultant, I was (ironically!) very cynical about this mythical beast called the 'culture' of an organization. I now think it matters tremendously more than I thought. And that it exists in a good form very very rarely!

Note to self: Try to spend the rest of my days in the pursuit of happiness, and not moolah!

Amazing what some old emails can do!

Wise and Otherwise

The wife picked up this book by Sudha Murty last week. I've been reading it, and its contents make me wonder a bit at how removed I am from the pulse of the our country. For those who do not know, Sudha Murty is the wife of one of Infosys' founders and runs the Infosys Foundation, a charitable and social organization.

The book itself is very easy reading, with short 'stories' each commenting upon some idiosyncratic aspect of life in the real India. It is easy to get moved by the plight in these stories of the common person in India, grappling with poverty, social pressures and ills and yet maintaining a stoic and dignified attitude. That said, the book is not heavy at all (something I had feared) and has a liberal dose of light moments.

For me the real story was the kind of transformational work being done by the foundation and the amazingly simple and direct approach of the author. It is easy to see after reading this book why Infosys is a real revolution, and why it (and its founding philosophy) will survive forever. It is easy to throw money at charity or social work (something I've been guilty of) but difficult to devote all one's time, efforts and skills at it. This is the real greatness of the author and the foundation.

I'm going to stop shorting Infosys as a mark of respect. The company has a wonderful future!

I'm very pissed...

...with my bank (hypothetical situation). What do I do?

I ask the bank for compensation for my ire.

How much? One lakh? Ten lakhs? One crore? Hundred crore? One million crore?

Or a sextillion? (i.e one followed by 21 zeros)?

Not enough? How about ten sextillion?

Yeah! that sounds good! Ten sextillion then, is what this gentleman decided!

To call this absurd is akin to saying that Mallika Sherawat is ugly. i.e. highly understated!!!

When melancholy strikes...

...one remembers some old time poignant movies. E.g.

1. Ijaazat: The story of a couple and how they discover each other when its too late. For the story click here
2. Parinda: The story of two brothers and how fate intervenes to tear them apart. For story, click here
3. One of the all time greats: The English Patient. Lyrical, forbidden love which is doomed. How humanity transcends nationality. Story here
4. On the Waterfront. I could'a been a contender. I could'a been somebody! Story here

The common theme running in these classics is that of loneliness. Terrifying, slow loneliness. Attractive, alluring loneliness.

Very good interview

To complete the troika of bad, good and best, here is the final quote from the same website (but a different analyst):

Q: What do you do now for someone who has been left out in this rally for the past couple of months?

A: Conventional wisdom would suggest that as more and more people who have been left out get frustrated, they get sucked into the market and when the last of them gets sucked in that is when this market will break. Having said that, for me it has been a period of frustration, we are now less in cash than we were earlier much against my better judgement. We are clearly not looking at new ideas, at new stocks but adding a little bit to existing stocks in the midcap space which were looking cheap earlier, which are still looking cheap. My fundamental sense still tells me that there are too many dichotomies in this market, in this purely liquidity led. On the one hand you have consumer price inflation running away with itself but nobody believes that interest rates will go up. Commodity prices are heading higher but nobody believes that global economic recovery will suffer. The world has been through its worst economic crisis over the last twelve to fifteen months but everyone believes that the worst is over. The party is now well and truly on. I don’t think we are going to find too many people coming onto your channel and saying the next band is down. Everyone is saying that the next band is up and rightfully so because a lot of levels have been taken out. But this is a dichotomy. China is another huge imponderable here, three or four months ago, everyone was saying that Chinese growth will bailout the global economy but today China seems to be slowing down. But the view of the world has not changed. It is like one should not worry about China, everything will be fine. It is like the question you asked about the monsoon a little while earlier. The monsoon has not recovered but one should not worry, everything is fine, this market will go up. So that is the mood and it is the liquidity that is driving this mood and who are you or I to buck that trend.

And this is how it should be done...

This is a different guy on the same question:

Q: What about Tata Motors, can the current price be justified? Are you revising your price targets there?

A: Fundamentally, it’s difficult to recommend buying Tata Motors at these levels. First of all the biggest chunk of revenue at about 65-70% still comes from JLR which is geared to the US and Western European markets. That revenue and earnings stream remains quite unpredictable so there is this huge degree of variability in the earnings forecast for Tata Motors. With that kind of a risk I think, these valuations may not be justified at the current levels. In the auto’s side, there are far better opportunities which have a far steadier earnings stream and a lesser degree of risk associated with the business which one can buy. It’s difficult to recommend a risky earnings stream at high valuations at this point in time.

This is a decent answer - the guy talks about headwinds for the company, says that financial performance is difficult to predict, and that a risky earnings stream trading at high valuations is not to be recommended. Anyone who buys after this knows that she is taking a pure punt. This is what a good analyst should do.

What is bullsh***ing 'analyst'

Just read this 'expert' on business channel CNBC's website. I quote:

Tata Motors a good buy?

Betadpur said, it was difficult to figure out a valuation for Tata Motors. “We have looked at the street estimates. It is all over the place as far as earnings per share (EPS) for 2011, our own numbers are around Rs 20 and we can give it a 30 multiple and that gives you Rs 600 - 30 multiple seems a little too much but that is where we are. If we say everything goes well for the stock, Jaguar-LandRover picks up by 2011, that is generating a lot of cash flow for the company and the EPS goes from our current estimates 20 to 30 and then you give it a 30 multiple, you get to Rs 900-1,000 target. That is what some people on the street are saying that Tata Motors can get to Rs 1,000. That is how we believe on the numbers but I don’t think everything is going to go positive for this company. “

What a jerk!!

1) He is not saying anything

2) He is not even providing any justification for his dumbass arguments - why should it trade at 30 times? What will make EPS increase 50%? Cash flow does not equate EPS. So what specifically will make EPS rise? What about the debt overhang? What about historical valuations?

Jokers like this really get my goat. And what business does CNBC have putting such brain-dead pretenders on air? The irony is that about 20,000 people would have read this and will call their brokers tomorrow with orders to buy Tata Motors, saying they have heard (on authority) that it will soon touch Rs 1000!!

They deserve the slaughtering they are going to get!

PS: I have nothing against Tata Motors. I think they make damn good SUVs!!

Mo' on co-bro

Suggestions from Icon-o-blast:

Coveted brother

Colossal brother

Concocted brother

Convoluted brother

Constipated brother

Conundrum-like brother

Follow up from me:

Contrarian brother

Copulating brother

Desi English?

Heard today - "He is my co-brother".

wtf??

What is a co-brother? Is it a shortened version of cousin brother? In that case why no co-bro? Or is it colleague who is thick as a brother? I was bursting to ask, but politely nodded in sage understanding instead.

Ah, the eternal mystery of life!

To no purpose...

Bored and missing the wife (she is off to her parents for a few days), I sit brooding about the general direction of my life. Office occupies roughly 70% of my weekdays, but I find work and office trivial and trite - it strikes me as funny to see other people make the same mistakes as I did and not get penalized even a tenth. I no longer feel rage at the unfairness of it all. I just look at it as a chore that I must finish - the results do not interest me.

Movies and entertainment bore me. Of the dozen or so movie channels that I see on my overpriced DTH satellite service, I can find exactly zero that are playing movies of any interest. The less I say about the trash broadcast on the general entertainment channels the better - if I were dictator for a day I would just ban the whole lot of them (and throw their content directors into dungeons to boot). Ekta Kapoor would be tortured and then exiled forever.

I have finished reading the Perry Mason that I've put off for close to a week, and I dont feel like getting started on George Soros' new book. It looks ponderous and preachy, and I'm not in the mood for that.

I dont feel like researching any stocks. I have run out of money to bung into the market.

I cannot do household chores - it is not efficient for me to do so now. I cannot run the washing machine since the clothes line is full of wet clothes. I cannot run the dishwasher since it does not have a 100% load. I have heated and eaten dinner, made and drunk tea. I have had a couple of chocolates. Nothing more for me to do.

I dont feel like browsing the internet. I will visit the same sites again and again.

I feel like speaking to a few friends - but they are probably asleep at this hour.

Life certainly seems pretty empty right now! I need a hobby.

(I enjoy writing this blog though! Finally!!)

You scratch my back I'll scratch yours

The Business Standard carried this op-ed piece yesterday. It brought to the fore what one already feels in one's bones - we are a nation of insidious insiders. We operate on the philosophy of you-scratch-my-back-i'll-scratch-yours; justice, national interest and fair play be damned. Sample this
- we have 55 billionaires for every trillion $ of gdp (more than the US, approx. 3 times Germany and approximately 3.5 times Brazil). The only country that exceeds us is Russia, and we all know that that country is run by crooks.
- the fact that most (27, to be exact) of our elected 'youth' politicians are the sons / daughters / nephews or brothers-in-law of other politicos.

The article in question raises some probing questions into the national soap opera being played out right now - the ugly saga of the 2 brothers - and its repercussions on national energy security. Had it not been for the younger brother being peeved (and rightfully so, in my opinion!) with not getting what was promised to him, no one would have raised some pertinent questions on the way the gas - a national resource - is being priced.

The way the contract works is quite simple - the gas belongs to India, and the contractor (RIL in this case) is compensated for the capital expenditure incurred and operating expenses in extracting the gas via a revenue share on the gas sold. Obviously, the contractor has an incentive to pad capital costs, since this enables recovery of more revenues from the government. This conflict is supposed to be contained via a review mechanism where a 4 member committee approves the capex. Now, the fact is that the capex per cc of gas DOUBLED in 2 years (from 2004 to 2006) . The 4 wise men who stamped this were found to be related (indirectly, of course) to RIL and sister concerns. The government's independent verifying arm, the CAG, has publicly said that it has not been given access to the contractor's data for the last 18 months, despite asking for it repeatedly!

If this is not bad enough, the oil ministry is siding quite openly in the legal process with one side of the litigants. While there is nothing wrong in this, the rub comes here - it is also openly hurting the interests of NTPC, another national company and our largest power producer. The country’s top law officials, the Attorney General and the Solicitor General have openly criticised Deora’s ministry for having hobbled the public NTPC from pursuing its legal battle against RIL.

It is not my case to take sides in the gas dispute - legality aside, it seems to me that the national interest would be served better by NOT honouring the contract between RIL and RNRL. However, I do think that we need a lot more scrutiny and a lot more transparency to prevent India from turning into another oligarchic banana republic.

Ferozeshah Kotla

Early one morning, a few of us landed up at the ruins of the citadel of Ferozeshah in New Delhi. Some pics (courtesy Anjaani Manzil):

Excerpts from Poe

`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! -
Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted -
On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore -
Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil!
By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore -
Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn,
It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

Probably true! This is as good as it gets.