Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Karthik calling Karthik

is a good movie. Not romantic, not horror, not even very thrilling. Dark, foreboding and realistic. And very very spooky - I've been having nightmares last two nights on account of this movie.

Farhan acts well, especially in the climax, when the mystery gets revealed. Deepika looks lovely as usual, and the few other characters are all quite real. The movie is probably one that wont be remembered for long as anything special, but I kind of admire the people who made it, since it represents something different from the run of the mill kind of stuff we are accustomed to seeing. The songs are also good, and do not jar in the least.

Recommended as a watch for a taste of something different.

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Dork

Finished reading Dork (authored by Domain Maximus) over the weekend.

Immensely entertaining for the first 85% of the book. While I thought the last 15% was a bit abrupt, I think overall it is a fantastic effort.

By the way, inner sources say the book is derived from largely true life incidents in the author's short year at a "leading mid-market consulting firm". I can totally identify with it :-)

Someone is finally talking sense

I have a young cousin who wants to get into IIM. She believes that an MBA (or PGDM, to be precise) from any of the IIMs will set her up for multi$$$ moolah.

This is obviously not true. Who is to blame? Fair and square, I think our popular media is the culprit. They print grotesque, inaccurate and non-comparable salaries year after year after year on the front pages of newspapers. It has become a given, a vulgar and obscene race to bigger and bigger material scores - speak to a layperson, and they will ask "Beta, you are from IIM? Oh you must be earning crores". If one tries to talk sense to this person, and explain how things really are, the reaction most likely is "Hmmm. This dude was probably near the bottom of his class. The Economic Times / Times of India / Jhumri Talaiya Khabrein cannot be wrong"

Anyhow, I was mightily pleased to read the following article. I hope it encourages other institutes to speak up and let the truth be known:

IIM-A has denied a front-page report in The Economic Times which said a recruiter made a Rs 1.44 crore-plus salary offer at final placements currently on at the school.

“Sure, no one’s talking yet. But ET has learnt that Deutsche Bank, which had set the upper ceiling in 2008 by offering a Rs 1.44-crore package, has broken that record this year”, said the ET report.

In a blog link sent by student media co-ordinator Rohan Desai, the school said (Desai also urged that we put-up the link on our blog to reach a wider audience):

“We would like to clarify in interest of the entire community that this is incorrect. Also, converting dollar salaries to rupee terms does not portray the correct picture and hence we provide the average dollar salary separately in our press releases.

We felt compelled to communicate this clarification because we believe it has the potential of driving aspiring students into making misinformed decisions and also gives incorrect signals about the economy.

IIMA over the last few years has chosen not to disclose the highest salary offered as we believe salaries are just one component of the jobs offered and also because the highest salary is in no way representative of the recruitment scenario.”

While the purpose of this blog is not to run-down competition, and we have never done that,Mint understands why students, and teachers, wish to project b-schools as more than just places where students turn into crorepatis. While salary figures are indicative of the economy, we stick to the official version released at the end of the placement season.

Placements can be covered in other ways. This is one of the reasons why the writer of this blog was allowed to live on-campus during placement week in 2007 at a time when there was a media black-out.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Pronab Da zindabad!!

In my humble opinion, the Union budget 2010-11 has its head and heart firmly in place.

For one, the budget does the right thing by reducing direct taxation and increasing indirect taxation. This increases compliance, because the poor overtaxed salaried guy (aside - this is not anecdotal - India has one of the highest personal and corporate tax regimes globally. Scandinavian and developed countries have higher overall tax rates, but they more than compensate in the form of social security benefits. Most Asian countries have tax rates closer to 16-20%. Not surprisingly, compliance is abysmal - close to a pathetic 12-15% from the figures I remember seeing most recently) gets relief; and the smirking tax-stealing business guy pays up more indirectly for all the conspicuous consumption. Reduced direct taxation also stimulates the economy by incentivizing greater consumption - we are a unique country which does not depend on exports for growth, and we should try our damnedest to keep it that way.

Secondly, the budget signals a return to fiscal prudence by targeting a lower fiscal deficit (through lower 'non-productive' non-plan expenditure) and makes a case for transparent and proper reporting of the deficit. No more hiding subsidies 'below the line' by issuing oil bonds and all other kinds of instruments designed to win votes today but burden our children and grandchildren for all time. Additionally, the budget firmly puts disinvestment as a revenue source. Less government is good government.
For all the hoo-haa the short sighted scaremongers in the BJP and the perennially stick-up-my-ass communists are making about petrol price hikes, I think it is a good thing. Petrol prices need to be deregulated - normal laws of economics (demand drops on rising prices) need to be allowed to work. For the economy as well as for the environment.

If anything, the budget should have firmly introduced fuel price decontrol, the direct tax code as well as the GST tax regime. But overall, I look at the budget as a glass slightly more than half-full.

And the hypocritical opposition can shout themselves hoarse.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Kenyes versus ... (err... who is on the other side?)

While our day to day lives are relatively humdrum and routine, we are in the midst of a ferocious worldwide war. The (small) problem is that there is no other side in the war.

The war against the biggest recession globally in the last 60 odd years is being fought as per the principles of John Maynard Keynes, who famously advocated massive deficit spending to work one's way out of a recession. In tandem, central banks globally are printing massive amounts of currency, increasing government spending and increasing government roles in business. The general theory is that debt will be inflated away, savers will be punished, currencies depreciated, and consumers incentivised to 'shop till they drop'.

I'm no expert, but somehow I don't see why this should work. The reason for the recession (as I see it) was too much debt and excessive leverage, leading to asset price inflation in US residential homes. When the bubble burst, people's wealth (equity in their homes) was wiped out, leading to reduced spending, de-growth, mass unemployment, and further wealth erosion - a vicious cycle started. The risk in Keynesian medicine is that it stokes the very fires that led to the problem - artificial floors to asset prices could lead to massive stagflation if consumption does not respond to fiscal stimulus.

Maybe I am old fashioned, but I think it is better to take the bitter medicine today (like Paul Volcker advocated in 1971-72 by massively raising inflation rates. The economy staggered for 3-4 years, but inflation was gone for good, and the next 20 years of excellent growth followed in the US). The problem is that everyone these days is a Keynesian. Where are the monetarists, the Volckers? How will we know who wins this fight if there is no other example to counter the recession? Where is the alter-ego to 'helicopter' Ben Bernanke?

I think (fear) we will keep seeing events like Dubai / Greece / Portugal for the next few years, where nations with excessive debt will keep being unable to pay off their dues. And the Keynesians will declare themselves winners, whether they win or lose.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Increase GDP - buy alarm time pieces!!

I am generally sceptical of the numbers our esteemed government churns out. Having served a large government entity in my previous career avatar, I can imagine how un-robust the data collection process in a large and totally un-automated organization must be.

Even so, this news article takes the cake - the headlines scream that the index of industrial production index (IIP) in December was up almost 17%, or the most in more than a decade. The truth is that 7% (or approximately 40% of this growth comes from (believe it or not!!) 'alarm time pieces'!!!! These esteemed articles, which in my considered opinion no one uses anymore, have a weightage of ~0.3% in the IIP index, and the government would have us believe that growth in this category was 2500% (25x of production a year ago). The mind boggles at this stupendous statistic.

So I know now how India can overtake China in the economic growth sweepstakes! Every urban person just needs to buy a ruddy alarm clock!!!

Saturday, February 06, 2010

Addendum

Speaking of Ishqiya, here is another part of the movie I loved... this song plays in the background when Babban is 'having fun'

I agree totally with Calvin






I demand euphoria!!

Friday, February 05, 2010

Ishiqiya

Saw the movie today, and liked it quite a lot. The wife hated it, though. No matter - she did not like The Dark Knight either (shudder....)

Good timepass movie, very grounded. Fantastic performances (esp Khalujaan and Mushtaq Bhai), fantastic songs and music, but best of all:

1) Ch**ium sulphate! I can almost see myself scream this from my car window the next time someone honks needlessly or cuts into my lane
2) Nandu (and his bantering with Babban): worth many many smiles

$104 million! For this!!!! Gulp...

This thing (I can not think of a better word for it) sold for $104 million today! I'm speechless...





Thursday, February 04, 2010

What do bankers really do to earn their millions???

Now we know :-) The action starts 1 minute into the video - a must see!!

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Power and Beauty

Ever wondered why high heels exist? Why the most common lipstick colour is red? Why women prefer (guys with) cars to (guys with) motorbikes? Most of all, does size REALLY matter? The answers are all simple. Explained in this article (courtesy Mint Lounge)...

Pretty interesting, I thought! Though at the end of it all, I had just one question - what is a pudenda??

I have a game I have been trying out at parties for a decade. I ask women to give it a thought, and then choose the order in which they would be attracted to the following types of men as their partner: a) Good-looking b) Powerful c) Stable.

No other quality in these three men is defined, and they are what those words mean. Almost invariably, women choose the powerful man as the one they are most attracted to. This is followed by the stable man and last, the good-looking one. I cannot remember more than a couple of women, and I have polled dozens, who did not choose power as the thing they were drawn to most.
I ask men to choose from the following:
a) Beautiful
b) Rich
c) Homely
Men always choose beautiful first; most pick homely second and rich last.
We are uncomfortable with accepting the extent to which our instinct, formed over tens of thousands of years as hunters-gatherers, dominates our intellect. But it is true that our sexual instinct is not entirely in our control, and women are drawn towards the powerful male.

A wealthy man, no matter how ugly—Aristotle Onassis—will bed the most desirable women in the world: Jacqueline Kennedy, Maria Callas. Given that fact, powerful men often practise what is called serial monogamy, monopolizing a beautiful woman for the best years of her beauty and then moving on to the next woman. That’s why rich men often have many divorces—Larry King is on his eighth wife, Johnny Carson had four, Mickey Rooney eight.
Other powerful men have a different model, a stable family life but constant sexual relationships on the side: Tiger Woods, David Beckham and Bill Clinton.
Evolutionary psychologists attribute this behaviour not to sex addiction but the instinct to spread genes. Man has an unlimited number of potential offsprings because of his ability to generate sperm. And so the most important aspect of whether or not he will mate with a woman is not love or even attraction, but opportunity. Most males will accept this if asked, and any number of studies show it to be true.
One study, a few years ago, had a beautiful woman on a college campus approaching strangers to have sex with her. Every single man she approached agreed. When an attractive man did the same with the campus women, not one agreed. Again, the reason for this is thought to be primal, and it is this. A woman will have three or four and a maximum of perhaps a dozen or so children (Mumtaz Mahal was rewarded with the Taj Mahal for producing 14). So, in a species where man is provider, she must be more careful in selecting her mate because she has to ensure he is capable of protecting her limited offspring. This explains the female attraction to power.
Gujarati women find Narendra Modi very attractive sexually and, even more than the man, it is the urban Gujarati woman who has made Modi a heroic figure in that state. An ageing woman does not have appeal in society because man is instinctively trained to see that her utility is low. This is why women hide their age more than men. It is because of her declining fecundity that age is unattractive on a woman though it’s irrelevant in the rich man. This is not to preclude that a man might find a beautiful woman of older age sexually attractive: He will (remember the opportunity rule). But this will be a relationship of casual sex, because man is first drawn to the nubile woman. Exactly how nubile? The male preference for shaved pudenda offers an indication.
The idea that women are drawn to power opens up doors that many men would rather be left shut. The myth in health literature that penis size does not matter is subscribed to primarily by men. Women would actually have been attracted genetically to the large organ before the use of clothing, which is quite recent. This is because a larger organ is more efficient at depositing sperm, thus ensuring fertilization.
We know that organ size matters because it conditions the unusual behaviour of males in the toilet. In the men’s room, when a urinal is open between two standing men, a third man entering will avoid the spot in the middle and head for the fifth urinal so as to keep one open space between him and the next man. This is because he is conscious of his neighbour sizing him up.
Indian men are particularly insecure and toilets here have a wall—often as high as a standing man’s head—between each urinal.
Incidentally, this competition among men for women is a clear indicator that the anti-homosexual sentiment of Christians and Muslims is Old Testament prejudice. Instinctively, all heterosexual men should like homosexuals because they are not a threat. Often we send out sexual signals that we think are effective, but are actually meaningless. The man who colours his hair black does so without understanding that his youth isn’t what women primarily find attractive in him. It is important, however, for a woman to colour her hair, and the defiant woman who doesn’t, finds it difficult to get men to view her in a sexually attractive light.
Despite the male obsession with large motorcycles, and the advertising that suggests that women find them alluring, an expensive car, say a Mercedes-Benz, is much more effective at communicating a man’s quality. Money power being the key here, and not mechanical power. Similarly, the female predilection for handbags is unfathomable to men, though wearing stilettos is a good idea. Women should wear high-heeled shoes. They make a woman physically vulnerable, teetering, and that makes her attractive to a man, because he likes to think of domination. The heels reform her posture forwards, and that also has its appeals.
Nail polish and lipstick are most appealing to men when red, because it indicates health and vitality, and that was the original purpose of cosmetics. Brown, blue and black and such other colours are quite useless in attracting men.
So can we escape our instinct? Yes, but only episodically. It keeps coming back and it’s always lurking in our head if we observe it. Our prejudice is quite marked and women who are both gorgeous and intelligent are remembered for their beauty. A man who is striking-looking and intelligent is noted for his brains, even by women.
It’s banal but true: To improve their odds in the love market, men need to focus on making more money and women on looking more beautiful.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Unadulterated BS

I have nothing against Mr. Bejan Daruvala. The dude writes a weekly zodiac horoscope in the Sunday Times of India, which I'm sure a lot of people read and forget in a jiffy. However, these days Mr. Daruvala is beginning to bug me a bit - the guy has become a financial expert!!! He advises people on what to buy, sell or trade!! So much so, that he gets star billing on CNBC (dunno if he actually appears on the channel, but certainly on the website!)

I found this mildly amusing initially, but now the trend seems to be really propagating. I was stunned to find that a well educated (MBA, no less!!) acquaintance checked Mr. Daruvala's prophesies daily. Call it superstition or looking for divine guidance, but I call it sheer idiocy. Investing is tough enough as it is - but using these kind of 'astrological' guideposts is a guaranteed recipe for disaster. Check out some specific examples of divine guidance:

05-02-2010 to 18-02-2010 Repeatedly make entries and exit. The time is not good. If you follow the above rule you will make money in atleast 7 out of 10 deals.
19-03-2010 to 01-04-2010 Sell off shares that you purchased at low pricesas they will fetch good prices. Wait for the prices to fall prior to purchasing.
02-05-2010 to 19-05-2010 Not a very good time. Don't trade unidirectionally. During bullish time trade bullishly and in bearish trends trade bearish. Stick to the trends and don't act reverse to avoid risk, advises Ganesha.

Wah!! This last one really is very useful :-) I just wish to offer the poor suckers who trade according to the wishes of this dude a bit of unwanted advice - if this guy could really predict the market, would he be wasting his time telling you how to trade?

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Idiot? Certainly not...

I read this article and felt a bit confused - is this good or bad? Then I figured that this is really really bad - in fact a guaranteed fact that shows just how massively screwed up our education system is!

Nobel laureate Ramakrishnan failed IIT, medical entrance tests
5 Jan 2010, 2138 hrs IST, PTI

BANGALORE: Venkataraman Ramakrishnan won the Nobel prize in Chemistry in 2009 but decades ago he failed to clear entrance tests for both the IITs
and a reputed medical college.

At a public lecture at the Indian Institute of Science campus here, he recalled his journey from Baroda where he went to school and college before moving to Ohio University for his Ph.D. He shifted to Baroda from Chidambaram in Tamil Nadu when he was three.

He noted that he appeared for the IIT entrance test but "did not get a single seat in IIT".

"My parents were somewhat old-fashioned; they did not believe in coaching classes (in preparation for entrance test)," Ramakrishnan told a packed J N Tata Auditorium, where many could not even enter because it was crowded. They (his parents) thought coaching classes were "nonsense".

He also appeared in the entrance test for a seat in the reputed Christian Medical College in Vellore in Tamil Nadu but was unsuccessful. Giving an explanation, he said that those days, there were only a small number of seats for men.

The (really sad) takeaways I have after reading this stupendous article is
  1. Getting into IIT (and other prestigious institutes of higher education) is a function of what kind of coaching class you have been to
  2. There are no avenues within the country for potentially brilliant scientists or other skilled professionals if they do not conform to the rat race (IIT / SRCC / AIIMS / NLS etc etc)
  3. Now that I try to think hard, I cannot recall any Nobel prize winner who is from IIT. I can think of many people in finance though (self included!). To me, this is a travesty of IIT's purpose

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Thoughts in a New Year

A New Year, and a new day, week, month, and if you so believe, even new decade. A time to sit back, relax and count the innumerable pleasures of life. A time to feel the privilege, bask in joy and burst with happiness :-)

Worries on the horizon? I can not recall a single day when I was not worried about something or the other. One year out, I don't even remember 95% of the things I was worried about - feels funny that such trivial inanities should fill 95% of my waking thoughts. When I count my joys, my reasons to be happy, I find I discount them very quickly. Life moves on instantaneously towards the next goal, the next struggle, the next trivial pursuit. How much of this do I really care about? How much of this do I desire? How much can I do without? Mostly all.

The fundamental bedrock of needs - health, safety, family, friends, freedom - are all present in abundance and for free. It is up to me to savour these or take them for granted. I hope I can make the right choice!

Happy new year :-)

Monday, December 21, 2009

Tis the season to be merry...

1) Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day

2) If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you

3) It is darkest before dawn. That's the best time to steal your neighbour's newspaper

4) Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you are a mile away and you have their shoes!

5) Warning sign on a Japanese food processor: Not to be used for the other use

6) Instructions on a Chinese product used to relieve painful haemorrhoids: LIE DOWN ON BED AND SLOWLY INSERT POSCOOL UP TO THE PROJECTED PORTION LIKE A SWORD-GUARD INTO ANAL DUCT. WHILE INSERTING POSCOOL FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES, KEEP QUIET

7) Market definition: Bear market: a 6-8 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewellery and the husband gets no sex

8) Market correction: the day after you buy stocks

9) Institutional investor: someone who sells a stock big time a day or two after you have bought it, for no apparent reason

10) From an engineering exam:

Thursday, December 17, 2009

What does this mean?

If this is marketing strategy, then I'm really glad that I didn't major in marketing. This is the sign put up by Haagen Dazs in a posh south Delhi mall.


Not only do I not understand what this means, I don't think anyone else does, either!
Are they trying to stress how premium their ice-cream is? So premium that only foreigners can eat it? Well, perhaps. But then, why are you launching in India???

In my opinion, this is a really stupid and 'guaranteed to fail' method for launching any new brand. In fact, it is probably downright illegal. If I were sitting in the head office of Haagen Dazs, I would fire the top management.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

The biggest paycheck in history

There is probably a lot of happiness in becoming rich. However, there is almost certainly more happiness in being right. And its best to become very very rich by being right about something that others didn't agree with! To my mind, no one captures the essence of being right more than John Paulson. Boy, he was right. And how!

This article from the tech ticker is worth a read:

The bursting of the housing bubble cost the American economy trillions of dollars and brought Wall Street to its knees. But a few savvy investors, most notably hedge fund manager John Paulson, made fortunes betting against housing and related securities.

In The Greatest Trade Ever, Wall Street Journal columnist Gregory Zuckerman details how Paulson pocketed $6 billion as his firm made $20 billion betting against the boom from mid-2006 through early 2009. These returns included $4 billion for Paulson personally in 2007, which Zuckerman describes as the single-most lucrative payout in history.

While few, if any, will ever approach Paulson's staggering accumulation of wealth, Zuckerman says there are some timeless lessons for the rest of us, including:

Have the courage of your convictions: Paulson stuck by his thesis even as the trades didn't initially pay off in 2006, myriad housing "experts" told him he was on the road to ruin, and seemingly all of Wall Street's machinery was working against him. And when the bets starting paying off in 2007, Paulson didn't book profits and run as many advised -- and some clients begged. After shorting subprime in 2007, Paulson effectively doubled down in 2008, shifting some of his firepower to bets against Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street firms knee-deep in the MBS market.

See the forest for the trees: As an outsider to the mortgage world, Paulson was able to see the carnage coming that those on the inside missed. The ability to think independently and see beyond what the "experts" are saying is critical for individual investors because more financial bubbles are likely, Zuckerman says.Hindsight being 20-20, it's clear the housing market was a bubble and Paulson's strategy of buying cheap insurance against subprime mortgages - in the form of credit default swaps - seems like a no-brainer.

But as Zuckerman details in the book, getting the trade right wasn't easy; others tried but failed to match Paulson's stellar returns because they were either too early, had the wrong trading strategy or didn't see the bet through to its ultimate conclusion.

Furthermore, Paulson struggled in early 2006 to raise money for a fund dedicated to betting against housing securities, Zuckerman reports; Paulson was viewed as an "outsider" in the mortgage market at the time and didn't reached legendary status until after the mega-profits had been booked.

I'm a rightist libertarian!

I read a blog post about the political compass today. Nothing spectacular about it, just a simple questionnaire that lets you know a bit more about yourself. I took the test, and found no surprises :-( It was as I always suspected - I'm a boring kind of centrist guy - leaning towards libertarianism (i.e. laissez faire, live and let live etc etc) as well as economically rightist (the market may not know best, but it sure as hell knows much more than the smartest planner in the world)

Here is my map:



No politicians are like me :-(
Milton Friedman is the closest match. Does that mean I should have been an academician? I think, very very deep down, that I was cut out to be an academician or a researcher!!!



I love such games :-)

Friday, November 27, 2009

The end of a dream?

Today I spotted a Toyota Fortuner on the road - the first time I saw the car outside of a picture or a website.

Unfortunately for me, it was quite a disappointment! I first mistook it for some version of the Innova, then double checked the name, and finally figured that the damn thing does not remotely resemble a power-packed animal. No doubt it is very efficient and indeed powerful, it just does not look so! I think the key factor is the ground clearance - our desi cars have high clearance and a higher back, while the firang cars (while more elegant) have lower centers of gravity and rounded backs. A bit of crudeness is missing!

Give me the Scorpio or the Safari anyday (till then I can dream about the Land Rover and the Audi Q7)!

Some photographs:
Fortuner:

Land Rover:
Q7:
Scorpio:
Tata Safari: