The Business Standard carried this op-ed piece yesterday. It brought to the fore what one already feels in one's bones - we are a nation of insidious insiders. We operate on the philosophy of you-scratch-my-back-i'll-scratch-yours; justice, national interest and fair play be damned. Sample this
- we have 55 billionaires for every trillion $ of gdp (more than the US, approx. 3 times Germany and approximately 3.5 times Brazil). The only country that exceeds us is Russia, and we all know that that country is run by crooks.
- the fact that most (27, to be exact) of our elected 'youth' politicians are the sons / daughters / nephews or brothers-in-law of other politicos.
The article in question raises some probing questions into the national soap opera being played out right now - the ugly saga of the 2 brothers - and its repercussions on national energy security. Had it not been for the younger brother being peeved (and rightfully so, in my opinion!) with not getting what was promised to him, no one would have raised some pertinent questions on the way the gas - a national resource - is being priced.
The way the contract works is quite simple - the gas belongs to India, and the contractor (RIL in this case) is compensated for the capital expenditure incurred and operating expenses in extracting the gas via a revenue share on the gas sold. Obviously, the contractor has an incentive to pad capital costs, since this enables recovery of more revenues from the government. This conflict is supposed to be contained via a review mechanism where a 4 member committee approves the capex. Now, the fact is that the capex per cc of gas DOUBLED in 2 years (from 2004 to 2006) . The 4 wise men who stamped this were found to be related (indirectly, of course) to RIL and sister concerns. The government's independent verifying arm, the CAG, has publicly said that it has not been given access to the contractor's data for the last 18 months, despite asking for it repeatedly!
If this is not bad enough, the oil ministry is siding quite openly in the legal process with one side of the litigants. While there is nothing wrong in this, the rub comes here - it is also openly hurting the interests of NTPC, another national company and our largest power producer. The country’s top law officials, the Attorney General and the Solicitor General have openly criticised Deora’s ministry for having hobbled the public NTPC from pursuing its legal battle against RIL.
It is not my case to take sides in the gas dispute - legality aside, it seems to me that the national interest would be served better by NOT honouring the contract between RIL and RNRL. However, I do think that we need a lot more scrutiny and a lot more transparency to prevent India from turning into another oligarchic banana republic.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Ferozeshah Kotla
Early one morning, a few of us landed up at the ruins of the citadel of Ferozeshah in New Delhi. Some pics (courtesy Anjaani Manzil):
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Excerpts from Poe
`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! -
Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted -
On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore -
Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'
`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil!
By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore -
Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn,
It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'
Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted -
On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore -
Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'
`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil!
By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore -
Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn,
It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'
Probably true! This is as good as it gets.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Bashing Goldman Sachs Is Simply a Game for Fools: Michael Lewis
From the moment I left Yale and started working for Goldman Sachs, I’ve felt uneasy interacting with those who don’t.
It’s not that I think less of Goldman outsiders than I did while I remained among you. It’s just that I feel your envy, and know that nothing I can do or say will ever persuade you that I am no more than human.
Thus, like many of my colleagues, I have adopted a strategy of never leaving Goldman Sachs, apart from a few brief, spasmodic attempts to make what you outsiders call “love” or “the beast with two backs.” Goldman recognizes how important it is for its people to replicate themselves. We bill no performance fees for the service.
Today, the sheer volume of irresponsible media commentary has forced us to reconsider our public-relations strategy. With every uptick in our share price it’s grown clearer that we who are inside Goldman Sachs must open a dialogue with you who are not. Not for our benefit, but for yours.
America stands at a crossroads, and Goldman Sachs now owns both of them. In choosing which road to take, ordinary Americans must not be distracted by unproductive resentment toward the toll-takers. To that end we at Goldman Sachs would like to dispel several false and insidious rumors.
Rumor No. 1: “Goldman Sachs controls the U.S. government.”
Every time we hear the phrase “the United States of Goldman Sachs” we shake our heads in wonder. Every ninth-grader knows that the U.S. government consists of three branches. Goldman owns just one of these outright; the second we simply rent, and the third we have no interest in at all. (Note there isn’t a single former Goldman employee on the Supreme Court.)
What small interest we maintain in the U.S. government is, we feel, in the public interest. Our current financial crisis has its roots in a single easily identifiable source: the envy others felt toward Goldman Sachs.
The bozos at Merrill Lynch, the dimwits at Citigroup, the nimrods at Lehman Brothers, the louts at Bear Stearns, even that momentarily useful lunatic Joe Cassano at AIG -- all of these people took risks that no non-Goldman person should ever take, in a pathetic attempt to replicate Goldman’s financial returns.
For too long we have allowed others to emulate us. Now we are working productively with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and the Congress to ensure that we alone are allowed to take the sort of risks that might destroy the financial system.
Rumor No. 2: “When the U.S. government bailed out AIG, and paid off its gambling debts, it saved not AIG but Goldman Sachs.”
The charge isn’t merely insulting but ignorant. Less responsible journalists continue to bring up the $12.9 billion we received from AIG, as if that was some kind of big deal to us. But as our CFO David Viniar explained back in March, we were hedged. Our profits from AIG “rounded to zero.”
People who don’t work at Goldman Sachs, of course, find this implausible: How could $12.9 billion round to zero? Easy, but you just need to understand the mathematics.
Let’s assume AIG transferred $12,880,560,250.34 of taxpayer money to Goldman Sachs. A Goldman outsider, asked to round this number, might call it $12,880,560,250.00. That’s not how we look at it; at Goldman we always round to the nearest $50 billion, so anything less than $50 billion rounds to zero.
Think of it that way and you can see that $12,880,560,250.34 isn’t even close to not rounding to zero.
Rumor No. 3: “As the U.S. government will eat the losses if Goldman Sachs goes bust, Goldman Sachs shouldn’t be allowed to keep making these massive financial bets. At the very least the $11.4 billion Goldman Sachs already has set aside for employees in 2009 -- $386,429 a head, just for the first six months -- is unfair, as the U.S. taxpayer has borne so much of the risk of the wagers that generated the profits.”
Really, we don’t know where to begin with this one. It is wrong-headed in so many different ways!
Let’s begin with the idea that the taxpayer is running a bigger risk than we are. The billions he stands to lose are trivial; after all, they round to zero.
The real risk, when you think about it even for a minute, is the risk we take ourselves: that Goldman will cease to exist and we will cease to be Goldman employees. To flirt with such tragedy we obviously need to be paid.
Rumor No. 4: “Goldman employees all look alike.”
Several recent newspaper photos have revealed that a surprising number of Goldman Sachs workers are white, male and bald. That non-Goldman people glance at such photos and think “Holy crap, they even look alike!” just shows how deeply anti- Goldman bigotry runs in American life.
We at Goldman represent unique clusters of DNA; if we bear some faint surface resemblance to one another, and to creatures from the 24th century, it is only because our superior powers of reasoning lead us to hold in our minds exactly the same thoughts, at exactly the same time.
A shared disinterest in growing hair, for instance, isn’t a coincidence of nature but an expression of healthy like- mindedness.
“The world is a pool table,” our naked-headed CEO likes to tell us. “And all the people in it are either stripes or solids. You alone are the cue balls.”
Rumor No. 5: Goldman Sachs is “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
Those words are of course taken from a recent issue of Rolling Stone magazine and they are transparently false.
For starters, the vampire squid doesn’t feed on human flesh. Ergo, no vampire squid would ever wrap itself around the face of humanity, except by accident. And nothing that happens at Goldman Sachs -- nothing that Goldman Sachs thinks, nothing that Goldman Sachs feels, nothing that Goldman Sachs does --ever happens by accident.
(Michael Lewis is a columnist for Bloomberg News and the author of “Liar’s Poker,” “Moneyball” and “The Blind Side,” soon to be a major motion picture. The opinions expressed are his own.)
It’s not that I think less of Goldman outsiders than I did while I remained among you. It’s just that I feel your envy, and know that nothing I can do or say will ever persuade you that I am no more than human.
Thus, like many of my colleagues, I have adopted a strategy of never leaving Goldman Sachs, apart from a few brief, spasmodic attempts to make what you outsiders call “love” or “the beast with two backs.” Goldman recognizes how important it is for its people to replicate themselves. We bill no performance fees for the service.
Today, the sheer volume of irresponsible media commentary has forced us to reconsider our public-relations strategy. With every uptick in our share price it’s grown clearer that we who are inside Goldman Sachs must open a dialogue with you who are not. Not for our benefit, but for yours.
America stands at a crossroads, and Goldman Sachs now owns both of them. In choosing which road to take, ordinary Americans must not be distracted by unproductive resentment toward the toll-takers. To that end we at Goldman Sachs would like to dispel several false and insidious rumors.
Rumor No. 1: “Goldman Sachs controls the U.S. government.”
Every time we hear the phrase “the United States of Goldman Sachs” we shake our heads in wonder. Every ninth-grader knows that the U.S. government consists of three branches. Goldman owns just one of these outright; the second we simply rent, and the third we have no interest in at all. (Note there isn’t a single former Goldman employee on the Supreme Court.)
What small interest we maintain in the U.S. government is, we feel, in the public interest. Our current financial crisis has its roots in a single easily identifiable source: the envy others felt toward Goldman Sachs.
The bozos at Merrill Lynch, the dimwits at Citigroup, the nimrods at Lehman Brothers, the louts at Bear Stearns, even that momentarily useful lunatic Joe Cassano at AIG -- all of these people took risks that no non-Goldman person should ever take, in a pathetic attempt to replicate Goldman’s financial returns.
For too long we have allowed others to emulate us. Now we are working productively with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and the Congress to ensure that we alone are allowed to take the sort of risks that might destroy the financial system.
Rumor No. 2: “When the U.S. government bailed out AIG, and paid off its gambling debts, it saved not AIG but Goldman Sachs.”
The charge isn’t merely insulting but ignorant. Less responsible journalists continue to bring up the $12.9 billion we received from AIG, as if that was some kind of big deal to us. But as our CFO David Viniar explained back in March, we were hedged. Our profits from AIG “rounded to zero.”
People who don’t work at Goldman Sachs, of course, find this implausible: How could $12.9 billion round to zero? Easy, but you just need to understand the mathematics.
Let’s assume AIG transferred $12,880,560,250.34 of taxpayer money to Goldman Sachs. A Goldman outsider, asked to round this number, might call it $12,880,560,250.00. That’s not how we look at it; at Goldman we always round to the nearest $50 billion, so anything less than $50 billion rounds to zero.
Think of it that way and you can see that $12,880,560,250.34 isn’t even close to not rounding to zero.
Rumor No. 3: “As the U.S. government will eat the losses if Goldman Sachs goes bust, Goldman Sachs shouldn’t be allowed to keep making these massive financial bets. At the very least the $11.4 billion Goldman Sachs already has set aside for employees in 2009 -- $386,429 a head, just for the first six months -- is unfair, as the U.S. taxpayer has borne so much of the risk of the wagers that generated the profits.”
Really, we don’t know where to begin with this one. It is wrong-headed in so many different ways!
Let’s begin with the idea that the taxpayer is running a bigger risk than we are. The billions he stands to lose are trivial; after all, they round to zero.
The real risk, when you think about it even for a minute, is the risk we take ourselves: that Goldman will cease to exist and we will cease to be Goldman employees. To flirt with such tragedy we obviously need to be paid.
Rumor No. 4: “Goldman employees all look alike.”
Several recent newspaper photos have revealed that a surprising number of Goldman Sachs workers are white, male and bald. That non-Goldman people glance at such photos and think “Holy crap, they even look alike!” just shows how deeply anti- Goldman bigotry runs in American life.
We at Goldman represent unique clusters of DNA; if we bear some faint surface resemblance to one another, and to creatures from the 24th century, it is only because our superior powers of reasoning lead us to hold in our minds exactly the same thoughts, at exactly the same time.
A shared disinterest in growing hair, for instance, isn’t a coincidence of nature but an expression of healthy like- mindedness.
“The world is a pool table,” our naked-headed CEO likes to tell us. “And all the people in it are either stripes or solids. You alone are the cue balls.”
Rumor No. 5: Goldman Sachs is “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
Those words are of course taken from a recent issue of Rolling Stone magazine and they are transparently false.
For starters, the vampire squid doesn’t feed on human flesh. Ergo, no vampire squid would ever wrap itself around the face of humanity, except by accident. And nothing that happens at Goldman Sachs -- nothing that Goldman Sachs thinks, nothing that Goldman Sachs feels, nothing that Goldman Sachs does --ever happens by accident.
(Michael Lewis is a columnist for Bloomberg News and the author of “Liar’s Poker,” “Moneyball” and “The Blind Side,” soon to be a major motion picture. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Sona
Was randomly surfing youtube, when I chanced upon an old favourite. One thing led to another, and I figured that this is a very talented and cute chick:
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
80% pass
Everyone and their uncle in the media are running around hoops on how the budget is a 'missed opportunity', not so good etc. etc. I do not agree with this.
For one, the budget is what it was meant to be - a bald recital of the Government's accounts over the next year. It is not the place to make grandiose policy announcements, or to give punters a chance to pump up some stocks and dump others.
Secondly, it prescribes the right dose for India's ailing economy - fiscal stimulus (albeit directly in the hands of the consumer). I felt the removal of the tax surcharge was a really good thing (since the section affected by this is never part of any traditional vote-bank and thus easy pickings for all grasping politicos). It also removed another regressive tax - the FBT. And it committed to introduction of the most efficient goods and sales tax (the GST) from next year.
Third, the budget does not sugar coat any of the hard messages - fiscal deficit is going to be high at 6.8% of GDP (much higher if one accounts for the deficit properly), tax revenues are going to be down, and disinvestment is going to be a slow and tortuous affair, large doses of government spending is going to be required to shore up the rural economy. Were the manic punters bidding up our markets hoping any different? If so, they deserve what they got from the market.
For one, the budget is what it was meant to be - a bald recital of the Government's accounts over the next year. It is not the place to make grandiose policy announcements, or to give punters a chance to pump up some stocks and dump others.
Secondly, it prescribes the right dose for India's ailing economy - fiscal stimulus (albeit directly in the hands of the consumer). I felt the removal of the tax surcharge was a really good thing (since the section affected by this is never part of any traditional vote-bank and thus easy pickings for all grasping politicos). It also removed another regressive tax - the FBT. And it committed to introduction of the most efficient goods and sales tax (the GST) from next year.
Third, the budget does not sugar coat any of the hard messages - fiscal deficit is going to be high at 6.8% of GDP (much higher if one accounts for the deficit properly), tax revenues are going to be down, and disinvestment is going to be a slow and tortuous affair, large doses of government spending is going to be required to shore up the rural economy. Were the manic punters bidding up our markets hoping any different? If so, they deserve what they got from the market.
A study in contrasts
Last week, I saw 2 movies - The Hangover and (I am ashamed to admit) Kambakht Ishq.
The Hangover is a really good movie - oddball, corny and really good for guffaws. The perfect weekend fare, intelligently written, well acted and perfectly paced. Kambakht Ishq, on the other hand, made me cringe in disbelief and embarassment.
How could anyone have
The Hangover is a really good movie - oddball, corny and really good for guffaws. The perfect weekend fare, intelligently written, well acted and perfectly paced. Kambakht Ishq, on the other hand, made me cringe in disbelief and embarassment.
How could anyone have
- written this unadulteratedly regressive, stupid and intelligence-insulting script (if one can call it a script)
- acted in such a vehicle and
- spent millions producing it
These are true mysteries. There are no songs to speak of, the 'special appearances' are especially dumb, and this movie is a walking talking advertisement for how not to waste time. The movie is full of caveman cliches (the hero shuts up the heroine by smooching her, he can sleep with all and sundry but she has to be pristine, the 'friend' runs her life and marriage on the whims of her friend, the heroine's mother is at fault for her stuck up and tight arsed behaviour, the heroine realizes the folly of her wicked ways in the end - I could just go on and on!) that I just hated.
In fact, by writing about it, I feel I am somehow denigrating this blog. Rather extreme!!
Monday, July 06, 2009
Neemrana
Neemrana is a nice weekend getaway from Delhi - just a hundred kilometers away and good for a break in routine. It is essentially an old fort, which has now been restored and enhanced into a heritage resort. Some pictures from a mobile phone camera:
Friday, June 26, 2009
Ambiguity as sin
I read John Le Carre's most recent novel, A Most Wanted Man, entirely in a book store. As often before, I was enraptured by its tight plot, totally believeable characters and most of all by its sense of innate morality. It also had the old Le Carre characteristic - the good guys never win (unless it is Smiley - but then Smiley was such a loser in life that he could be forgiven his wins).
As with his other truly memorable books, the story also disturbed me. Because it was so real, and because it probably happens so many times in this world we live in. I looked, perhaps for the first time, upon this world of ours from the point of view of a devout follower of Islam. And did not find it to be a safe or even reassuring world. Innocence is a sin, might is right and morality is a liability. The cruel logic of Guantanamo Bay overrides the human virtues of compassion and justice. We live in a world of justice by strength, justice of the winner, justice as fiat.
Usually I find Le Carre books morally ambiguous - everyone has a point of view which can be understood, Smiley or Karla. But not in A Most Wanted Man. Sometimes ambiguity has to be recognized as what it is - a sin. Something is right, and another thing is wrong. And one has to do the right thing. The right thing is humanity and compassion.
As a character in the book says - five percent of him was bad. But if I look at myself, can I say the same? For me, its probably closer to fifteen. Or even twenty. This is as true for me or you as it is for the character. Recognizing this, and making allowance for it - this is what will make life better for all of us.
As with his other truly memorable books, the story also disturbed me. Because it was so real, and because it probably happens so many times in this world we live in. I looked, perhaps for the first time, upon this world of ours from the point of view of a devout follower of Islam. And did not find it to be a safe or even reassuring world. Innocence is a sin, might is right and morality is a liability. The cruel logic of Guantanamo Bay overrides the human virtues of compassion and justice. We live in a world of justice by strength, justice of the winner, justice as fiat.
Usually I find Le Carre books morally ambiguous - everyone has a point of view which can be understood, Smiley or Karla. But not in A Most Wanted Man. Sometimes ambiguity has to be recognized as what it is - a sin. Something is right, and another thing is wrong. And one has to do the right thing. The right thing is humanity and compassion.
As a character in the book says - five percent of him was bad. But if I look at myself, can I say the same? For me, its probably closer to fifteen. Or even twenty. This is as true for me or you as it is for the character. Recognizing this, and making allowance for it - this is what will make life better for all of us.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Interesting analysis
This post comes from material posted on Yahoo! finance
Professors Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity) have produced a great series of charts that compare the progress of this worldwide recession with the Great Depression of 1929.
Effects on world industrial output and world trade volumes are worse than the Great Depression of 1929!
The good news, however, is that equity markets the world over have been quick to price all this in, perhaps protecting us from the slow painful slide seen last time around (fast and painful, or slow and painful? i prefer the former!)
And add to that the massive (I mean MASSIVE) monetary and fiscal stimulus laid on by governments and central banks. Raises the hope that today's green shoots are really the oaks of tomorrow!!
The good news, however, is that equity markets the world over have been quick to price all this in, perhaps protecting us from the slow painful slide seen last time around (fast and painful, or slow and painful? i prefer the former!)And add to that the massive (I mean MASSIVE) monetary and fiscal stimulus laid on by governments and central banks. Raises the hope that today's green shoots are really the oaks of tomorrow!!Service economy? Ha ha
There are no two ways about it - our service economy sucks! Getting a broadband connection at home (this is the most premium plan, and with the 'best' operator) is proving to be a headache. This is after my earlier broadband connection would provide such terrible connectivity that I would find it quicker to use a data card on my computer!
This is not just about broadband, or even telecom. I don't understand why we do not have a good, professional service economy. Where if I am told that xyz will happen on a certain day, it does happen on that day (or even that week)! This is true even of the largest retailer in India, who commits delivery on a certain day but actually delivers on some other day.
Earlier, this was a given - because everything was Govt. (or should I say bureaucracy) owned, and the Govt. certainly does not care about service. It is much more difficult to understand now - we have private companies with a profit motive, we have differential pricing, we have pretty much all elements in place for great service. But do we get it? Unfortunately, the answer is no!
My hypothesis is that this stems from 2 key factors - a) the chaos and unpredictability of daily life in our cities. I cannot predict to within 30 minutes the time it will take me to get from place A to place B, or whether I will find parking there, or whether the guy I'm supposed to meet or the item I'm supposed to collect will be there at all! In such an environment, even a small variable can effect output tremendously. Therefore service providers are unable to predict things themselves b) we are horrible at communication and are very short term thinkers. We think saying something conveniently now (Yes surely I will deliver today / Guaranteed madam, kaam aaj ho jayega) is enough to satisfy the customer, rather than say something not so pleasing, but then keep the promise. Ergo, we are short term optimizers rather than long term strategics.
Whatever the reason, our service economy sucks!
Thursday, May 21, 2009
99
I recently came across the following (true) facts:
- Statistically speaking, all girls in Delhi are called either a) Pooja or b) Neha
- All taxi drivers in Delhi are thieves
- Bhojpuri movies' 'dashing young heroes' are usually middle aged, balding and paunchy men
- There is a thriving satta bazaar in Delhi
- Mumbai goons have no chance against a) Delhi police and b) the Delhi chill
- Cyrus Broacha is funnier in real life than in a funny role
All these were gleaned from a watching of the latest (and only in a long long time!) Bollywood noveau middle house cinema offering - to wit - 99.
The movie is a good timepass watch, entertaining in parts, and with good, believeable characters (except Soha Ali Khan as the eponymous Pooja, in a role so wooden that environmental enthusiasts will embrace her as worth preservation!). Mahesh Manjarekar, Vinod Khanna, Boman Irani and a really good guy called 'Kuber' provide solid performances. The scripting is good, and the situations (while over the top) are believeable.
Definitely worth a dekko.
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Gaga over Yaga
Yaga Venugopal Reddy, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2003-2008 is being credited as being the 'saviour of the Indian financial system' from the impact of the global meltdown (a newspaper articles' words, not mine!). The dude sure seems pretty prescient in hindsight, since he moved swiftly (and with little regard to the netas in the government, it must be noted) to quell what seems now to be an obvious bubble in real estate prices and unsecured credit by raising interest rates. No wonder the guy is in great demand as a speaker at various international fora on financial system stability and the role of central banks.
What Reddy did during his tenure seems all the more amazing now since at that time, it seemed quite a contrarian and rather obstinate thing to do. Indeed, if Greenspan had done what Reddy did, perhaps we would not have this catastrophe of a credit crunch on our hands and perhaps many millions of jobs would not be lost. It is therefore instructive to see what Reddy thinks now.
Interestingly enough, in an interview with Mint, he says: "that the underlying inflationary pressure in India is very high" and that "one should take into account the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and not the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) while taking monetary and fiscal measures. In contrast to WPI, the country’s most widely tracked weekly inflation index, CPI reflects the price of goods at the retail level. For the week ended 25 April, WPI inflation was 0.70%, but CPI for industrial workers continued to be high at 9.63%, for February 2009 (the latest available number)." Bang on!! I always laugh when I hear strange numbers each week on CNBC: Inflation is now 0.2%, now 0.5%!! Huh?? Nothing seems to be becoming cheaper (except petrol, the price of which was reduced in February), so how can this be?
He goes on to say "the challenge before the authorities is unwinding the packages in due course. Otherwise, vested interests (will) develop in some stimulus packages and that will add to the inflationary pressures." Further: "You cannot do recovery at any cost. Your recovery has to be at an appropriate price.” The guy is still being farsighted and rightly indentifies that the focus on blind copying of 'stimulus' by our government (for populist reasons perhaps? or for bailing out property 'developers' who really deserve to be bankrupt) could be sowing the seeds of future pain and degrowth in India.
I wish we had more courageous (and sensible!) people like Yaga at the helm of economic policymaking!
What Reddy did during his tenure seems all the more amazing now since at that time, it seemed quite a contrarian and rather obstinate thing to do. Indeed, if Greenspan had done what Reddy did, perhaps we would not have this catastrophe of a credit crunch on our hands and perhaps many millions of jobs would not be lost. It is therefore instructive to see what Reddy thinks now.
Interestingly enough, in an interview with Mint, he says: "that the underlying inflationary pressure in India is very high" and that "one should take into account the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and not the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) while taking monetary and fiscal measures. In contrast to WPI, the country’s most widely tracked weekly inflation index, CPI reflects the price of goods at the retail level. For the week ended 25 April, WPI inflation was 0.70%, but CPI for industrial workers continued to be high at 9.63%, for February 2009 (the latest available number)." Bang on!! I always laugh when I hear strange numbers each week on CNBC: Inflation is now 0.2%, now 0.5%!! Huh?? Nothing seems to be becoming cheaper (except petrol, the price of which was reduced in February), so how can this be?
He goes on to say "the challenge before the authorities is unwinding the packages in due course. Otherwise, vested interests (will) develop in some stimulus packages and that will add to the inflationary pressures." Further: "You cannot do recovery at any cost. Your recovery has to be at an appropriate price.” The guy is still being farsighted and rightly indentifies that the focus on blind copying of 'stimulus' by our government (for populist reasons perhaps? or for bailing out property 'developers' who really deserve to be bankrupt) could be sowing the seeds of future pain and degrowth in India.
I wish we had more courageous (and sensible!) people like Yaga at the helm of economic policymaking!
Friday, May 01, 2009
Celebration!! and a new beginning...
This is the 200th post on nothing-spectacular! When I started, I had no idea that this blog would become such a natural and integral part of my life. I hope this journey continues...
This post is special for another reason. The beta version of the Five X Capital website is launched! Please visit http://www.fivexcapital.in and send in your comments / suggestions / brickbats. The site is till date the only thing I have to show for 7 years of education and 3 degrees (BTech, MTech in Computer Science and MBA)!!!! A humbling experience...
This post is special for another reason. The beta version of the Five X Capital website is launched! Please visit http://www.fivexcapital.in and send in your comments / suggestions / brickbats. The site is till date the only thing I have to show for 7 years of education and 3 degrees (BTech, MTech in Computer Science and MBA)!!!! A humbling experience...
Green shoots notwithstanding...
Not wanting to be a party pooper, I can't help but feel uneasy while publishing the following pictures (obtained from The Business Insider). While this may of course not happen, it would hurt no one to be cautious! 
Next, a really long term chart of the S&P Composite - note that all bottoms are formed when the index moves substantially below the long term trend line. Will it defy history and stop at the line, or will it go below, as it always has?
Points to ponder! Is cash going to be king?
First up, a chart showing that a 30% rise does not mean that the tide has turned: such rallies were common in other long term downtrending markets (Nasdaq 2000, Nikkei 1990s, Dow Great Depression, and current credit crisis). Of course, this argument falls flat if one argues that the current credit crisis is not as severe as the others - but it seems to me that it should definitely be more severe than the tech bust of 2000-01?
Next, a really long term chart of the S&P Composite - note that all bottoms are formed when the index moves substantially below the long term trend line. Will it defy history and stop at the line, or will it go below, as it always has?Points to ponder! Is cash going to be king?Reverie of a hazy afternoon
Its really hot outside - the hottest April in Delhi in 50 years, the media would have me believe. It is torture to do anything in such heat - anything but sip a cool drink, that is. The telly bleebs on while I listlessly check the time and trawl web pages on enabling the login/password feature on the wife's company's website.
On comes a corny song from the rustically named 'Singh is Kingg'. Neha Dhupia lights up the screen. I flip channels to IPL II (private thought: what a disaster!). The mind lingers still on 'Singh is Kingg'. I think - hey! I rather like Neha Dhupia. I wonder why this is so. I dont really like Katrina Kaif. Nor Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. I positively detest Shilpa Shetty. Sonam Kapoor is ok. Vidya Balan is embarrassing. Why do I like Neha Dhupia?? I think its for the same reason I like Gul Panag.
I think I like her because of her roles - Mithya. 12:30 ki last local. Some shady Kareena Kapoor movie where she is the elder sister. I like her (as I do Gul Panag) because she seems to be able to hold her own in a tough world. Able to give back as good as she gets. Able to stand out, and not blend in with the crowd. A strong lady. Trying to be different (in weird ways though - by undressing and making provocative statements). But hey, still different. Still unique.
The mind slowly focuses back on reality. The login/password feature beckons. I trawl more pages. The heat gets worse.
On comes a corny song from the rustically named 'Singh is Kingg'. Neha Dhupia lights up the screen. I flip channels to IPL II (private thought: what a disaster!). The mind lingers still on 'Singh is Kingg'. I think - hey! I rather like Neha Dhupia. I wonder why this is so. I dont really like Katrina Kaif. Nor Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. I positively detest Shilpa Shetty. Sonam Kapoor is ok. Vidya Balan is embarrassing. Why do I like Neha Dhupia?? I think its for the same reason I like Gul Panag.
I think I like her because of her roles - Mithya. 12:30 ki last local. Some shady Kareena Kapoor movie where she is the elder sister. I like her (as I do Gul Panag) because she seems to be able to hold her own in a tough world. Able to give back as good as she gets. Able to stand out, and not blend in with the crowd. A strong lady. Trying to be different (in weird ways though - by undressing and making provocative statements). But hey, still different. Still unique.
The mind slowly focuses back on reality. The login/password feature beckons. I trawl more pages. The heat gets worse.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Traders, Guns and Money
Although I read this delighful book a few months ago, I was reminded of it today as the author (Satyajit Das) wrote a long article on the whole 'green shoots' business in the Mint today.
The book is a side splitting and very very accurate take on life in the daring world of derivatives. The author, thanks to his massively varied experiences (true or apocryphal, I know not!) paints a rollicking picture of banks vs. clients (sophisticated companies, ignorant companies, MNCs, small noodle makers - the only thing they have in common is that they get shafted :-). Replete with incidents like the 'big swinging dick' trader farting (and more... its so gross its quite funny) loudly to make his point on the trading floor, or an English lawyer turning the tables on the big bad bankers from Goldman or the hookers used by the sales guys for their Indonesian clients, the book keeps one laughing most of the time. Add to that the fact that our dude author talks very intelligently about derivatives, and you have a winner on your hands.
Some excerpts (from this interview of the author):
Story 1
A trader I know thought that it might be useful to have his business cards translated into Japanese. His official title was “Trader- Fixed Income”. The Japanese translation was “Trader on Fixed Salary”. The card brought strange looks from the bemused Japanese clients. It seemed more than a little was lost in translation.
Story 2
Around 1999, I met an ERM (Enterprise Risk Management) advocate,. Dudley , the head of risk for an investment bank. He wanted to meet me. I had no idea why. I soon discovered that Dudley had reached ERM. It was the “new”, best-est thing. It was revolutionary. Dudley was at the forefront. He would give me an example of the problems he was trying to model.
“Let’s say our head trader has a complex trading strategy only he understands, yes”. I nodded. I didn’t think any strategy could be that complex, at least if a trader had put it on. But it was quite likely that no one knew about it. The trader may have not told anyone. “Let’s say the trader bicycles to work”. I did not think this likely. Traders prefer Porsches. Not wishing to prolong the discussion, I did not disagree.
“On the way to work, he is hit by a bus. His mobile phone is knocked away from him and damaged. He is unconscious. Assume that simultaneously market prices move due to surprise news. This news is vital to the trader’s position. He does not know. Nobody knows what to do with his position”. I nodded. “That’s not all. Assume simultaneously, there is fraud in another bank”. I nodded in real agreement. That was very likely. “This bank goes into bankruptcy. It creates a financial crisis. This of course affects the trader’s position. He doesn’t know of course. He’s unconscious”. I was hoping he would get to the point soon.
“At the same time, assume there is an accident at a power plant. There is a blackout. The bank’s back-up generator fails. The mechanic forgot to check the fuel tank. The bank’s computer system goes down. The trader can’t get prices or model the risk on his position”. I reminded Dudley that the trader was unconscious, maybe deceased. “Exactly”, he replied cheerily. It went on.
Eventually after a tragedy of biblical proportions had been outlined, Dudley reached the end. “I am modeling the probability that such an event could occur”. For me, it was one step too far in the search for “holistic risk”. Risk management seemed to have completed its transformation into pure entertainment. Dudley seemed the epitome of a risk manager who would drown crossing a river that was 12 inches in depth on average.
Story 3
Nero and I marketed together a fair bit. I provided the technical bits. He smoozed the clients. Nero and I were making a pitch for a new structured product with a portfolio manager from an overseas fund over dinner. Dinner was a 3 martini, 2 bottles of French red wine and cigar and brandy affair. I kept looking for a moment to interject and explain the structure and benefits of the trade. I didn’t get a chance.
Towards the end of the evening, the fund manager turned to Nero and said: “The girls are coming up to my room, right?” I looked at Nero surprised. “You didn’t forget the stuff, it drives the girls wild?” Nero muttered something and carefully steered the conversation in a different direction. After dinner, Nero and I left the hotel. Nero stopped and drew his hand in a cutting motion across his throat. “Remember IBGYBG,” he said. “I be gone, you be gone. Got it kid.” A week later the portfolio manager was on the phone. “Been thinking about your deal. Like it a lot. Send me a term sheet. I think we can do something there.” We closed a juicy trade for $200 million booking profits of over $2 million.
Years later, one of Nero’s boys was pitching a deal to a client. Coincidentally, I happened to be a consultant to the customer. During the presentation, I asked some questions. Nothing personal, I was doing my job. The presentation wasn’t going to plan. Eventually, the salesman stood up and said: “The product is unsuitable for you. It is intended for someone less sophisticated.” I rang and told Nero. He killed himself laughing. True lies, all of them.
I think I'll read it again this weekend!
The book is a side splitting and very very accurate take on life in the daring world of derivatives. The author, thanks to his massively varied experiences (true or apocryphal, I know not!) paints a rollicking picture of banks vs. clients (sophisticated companies, ignorant companies, MNCs, small noodle makers - the only thing they have in common is that they get shafted :-). Replete with incidents like the 'big swinging dick' trader farting (and more... its so gross its quite funny) loudly to make his point on the trading floor, or an English lawyer turning the tables on the big bad bankers from Goldman or the hookers used by the sales guys for their Indonesian clients, the book keeps one laughing most of the time. Add to that the fact that our dude author talks very intelligently about derivatives, and you have a winner on your hands.
Some excerpts (from this interview of the author):
Story 1
A trader I know thought that it might be useful to have his business cards translated into Japanese. His official title was “Trader- Fixed Income”. The Japanese translation was “Trader on Fixed Salary”. The card brought strange looks from the bemused Japanese clients. It seemed more than a little was lost in translation.
Story 2
Around 1999, I met an ERM (Enterprise Risk Management) advocate,. Dudley , the head of risk for an investment bank. He wanted to meet me. I had no idea why. I soon discovered that Dudley had reached ERM. It was the “new”, best-est thing. It was revolutionary. Dudley was at the forefront. He would give me an example of the problems he was trying to model.
“Let’s say our head trader has a complex trading strategy only he understands, yes”. I nodded. I didn’t think any strategy could be that complex, at least if a trader had put it on. But it was quite likely that no one knew about it. The trader may have not told anyone. “Let’s say the trader bicycles to work”. I did not think this likely. Traders prefer Porsches. Not wishing to prolong the discussion, I did not disagree.
“On the way to work, he is hit by a bus. His mobile phone is knocked away from him and damaged. He is unconscious. Assume that simultaneously market prices move due to surprise news. This news is vital to the trader’s position. He does not know. Nobody knows what to do with his position”. I nodded. “That’s not all. Assume simultaneously, there is fraud in another bank”. I nodded in real agreement. That was very likely. “This bank goes into bankruptcy. It creates a financial crisis. This of course affects the trader’s position. He doesn’t know of course. He’s unconscious”. I was hoping he would get to the point soon.
“At the same time, assume there is an accident at a power plant. There is a blackout. The bank’s back-up generator fails. The mechanic forgot to check the fuel tank. The bank’s computer system goes down. The trader can’t get prices or model the risk on his position”. I reminded Dudley that the trader was unconscious, maybe deceased. “Exactly”, he replied cheerily. It went on.
Eventually after a tragedy of biblical proportions had been outlined, Dudley reached the end. “I am modeling the probability that such an event could occur”. For me, it was one step too far in the search for “holistic risk”. Risk management seemed to have completed its transformation into pure entertainment. Dudley seemed the epitome of a risk manager who would drown crossing a river that was 12 inches in depth on average.
Story 3
Nero and I marketed together a fair bit. I provided the technical bits. He smoozed the clients. Nero and I were making a pitch for a new structured product with a portfolio manager from an overseas fund over dinner. Dinner was a 3 martini, 2 bottles of French red wine and cigar and brandy affair. I kept looking for a moment to interject and explain the structure and benefits of the trade. I didn’t get a chance.
Towards the end of the evening, the fund manager turned to Nero and said: “The girls are coming up to my room, right?” I looked at Nero surprised. “You didn’t forget the stuff, it drives the girls wild?” Nero muttered something and carefully steered the conversation in a different direction. After dinner, Nero and I left the hotel. Nero stopped and drew his hand in a cutting motion across his throat. “Remember IBGYBG,” he said. “I be gone, you be gone. Got it kid.” A week later the portfolio manager was on the phone. “Been thinking about your deal. Like it a lot. Send me a term sheet. I think we can do something there.” We closed a juicy trade for $200 million booking profits of over $2 million.
Years later, one of Nero’s boys was pitching a deal to a client. Coincidentally, I happened to be a consultant to the customer. During the presentation, I asked some questions. Nothing personal, I was doing my job. The presentation wasn’t going to plan. Eventually, the salesman stood up and said: “The product is unsuitable for you. It is intended for someone less sophisticated.” I rang and told Nero. He killed himself laughing. True lies, all of them.
I think I'll read it again this weekend!
Monday, April 27, 2009
Eaten alive
Last week the wife and I decided to try something off the beaten track. We tried an experiment where we were fodder from some creatures called 'doctor fish' (garra rufa for the scientifically inclined) flown all the way from Turkey. The concept is quite simple - the fish are supposed to eat up dead skin, giving the person a natural derm-abrasion, and leaving behind only healthy skin. While one can get a full body treatment, we were only adventurous enough for a feet therapy session. Some pictures (not very clear since taken from a phone camera): 
The biggest problem in the entire 20 minute experiment was keeping ourselves from laughing uncontrollably from all the tickling. The verdict - only good for experimenting, definitely nothing that dramatically improves the feet or your skin. Will I go again? No, unless I'm in a blue funk and need a lot of giggling to get me out of it!
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
'Black Swan' author talks sense
in this article from FT...
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Published: April 7 2009 20:02 Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.
In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.
The writer is a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Published: April 7 2009 20:02 Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.
In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.
The writer is a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Intriguing
These creative advertising types certainly can be innovative.
Courtesy (of all places!!): marketbhavishya.com
Courtesy (of all places!!): marketbhavishya.com
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
How to become a millionaire in a few easy steps
Here it is finally - the secret of George Soros's $$$$$:
Market turning points are strongly correlated to the sales of backache medicine. Track sales of the latter, and you will get the perfect indicator for the former. Easy step to much moolah!!
If you dont believe me, hear it here from the man himself (courtesy: The Times London)
“It’s as if you’re a jungle animal, and you see another animal facing you. You have to make a decision: fight or flight? Your hair stands up and you growl and you decide, ‘Am I going to attack because I’m stronger or am I going to run away because otherwise he’s going to eat me?’ You are very tense. And that’s the tension that gives you the backache."
Market turning points are strongly correlated to the sales of backache medicine. Track sales of the latter, and you will get the perfect indicator for the former. Easy step to much moolah!!
If you dont believe me, hear it here from the man himself (courtesy: The Times London)
“It’s as if you’re a jungle animal, and you see another animal facing you. You have to make a decision: fight or flight? Your hair stands up and you growl and you decide, ‘Am I going to attack because I’m stronger or am I going to run away because otherwise he’s going to eat me?’ You are very tense. And that’s the tension that gives you the backache."
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Foot in mouth
Equity markets across the world seem to be on steroids. Almost all of them have risen about 20% in the last 2 weeks. The US Dow Jones has just recorded its best 10 days since 1938. The Indian Nifty has risen 500 points from 2525 to 3025 in exactly 11 days. Is there something cooking? Are the bad times over, and will everything else be back to the good old days? I fear not (note that I am speaking specifically for the Indian markets). Reasons follow:
For one, I dont think the real economy has really bottomed out. Indian FY09 Q3 GDP growth was 5.3%, but looking at monthly statistics on exports, IIP or bank credit, it does not seem as if this is the end of economic deceleration. True, the markets discount everything around 6 months in advance, but it seems to me that we have not really suffered yet for the sins of our government (12%+ fiscal deficit!! a dubious record)
Secondly, 2 weeks ago, I distinctly recall multiple investment banks and brokerage firms (CLSA, Kotak, ML, Morgan Stanley, self styled 'experts' on CNBC TV18 etc etc) shouting from the rooftops about an imminent fall to 1800-2000 on the Nifty (ie a 20-25%) fall in the market. In 2 weeks, the world has not suddenly changed. The fact that these dudes are now saying the worst is over is perhaps the best indicator that its not
Thirdly, mature markets in the US and Europe are trading at lower valuations (many companies at bankruptcy valuations) than those in India. The governments there are inviting private investors to partake in the upsides while limiting the risk substantially (this is essentially the $1 trillion 'bad assets plan'). So there are better investing opportunities in mature markets, thus automatically limiting fund flows to emerging markets like India
Fourth, and perhaps most temporarily, there is a huge overhang of potentially disastrous electoral results in India very soon. Who wants to bet money on an uncertain outcome?
Predicting the markets' direction is akin to putting your foot in your mouth. For all these reasons, the markets may still run up substantially from here. But I'm not betting on it!
For one, I dont think the real economy has really bottomed out. Indian FY09 Q3 GDP growth was 5.3%, but looking at monthly statistics on exports, IIP or bank credit, it does not seem as if this is the end of economic deceleration. True, the markets discount everything around 6 months in advance, but it seems to me that we have not really suffered yet for the sins of our government (12%+ fiscal deficit!! a dubious record)
Secondly, 2 weeks ago, I distinctly recall multiple investment banks and brokerage firms (CLSA, Kotak, ML, Morgan Stanley, self styled 'experts' on CNBC TV18 etc etc) shouting from the rooftops about an imminent fall to 1800-2000 on the Nifty (ie a 20-25%) fall in the market. In 2 weeks, the world has not suddenly changed. The fact that these dudes are now saying the worst is over is perhaps the best indicator that its not
Thirdly, mature markets in the US and Europe are trading at lower valuations (many companies at bankruptcy valuations) than those in India. The governments there are inviting private investors to partake in the upsides while limiting the risk substantially (this is essentially the $1 trillion 'bad assets plan'). So there are better investing opportunities in mature markets, thus automatically limiting fund flows to emerging markets like India
Fourth, and perhaps most temporarily, there is a huge overhang of potentially disastrous electoral results in India very soon. Who wants to bet money on an uncertain outcome?
Predicting the markets' direction is akin to putting your foot in your mouth. For all these reasons, the markets may still run up substantially from here. But I'm not betting on it!
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Top 5 careers
While on the road trip, at Pushkar I had an intriguing thought. What if I could choose any alternate career. What would I like doing best? Initial thoughts run to the following:
5. Travel writer - a no brainer. Travel all over the world (preferably luxury resorts :-) and write about the experience. Will need to guard against getting jaded with new places
4. Book cafe owner - chill out with lots of books and coffee, hopefully meet interesting people. Will need to guard against lack of physical activity and potential boredom
3. Trekking guide - beautiful scenery, good physique which will develop (hopefully!) with all the huffing and puffing. Will need to keep finding new routes
2. Professional footballer - the beautiful game, adulating (female :-) fans, tons of money. Will need to maintain fitness obsessively
1. Trader - never a dull moment, use of brain as well as emotion, potential big payoff. Need to have ample capital to start with
Would be good to hear other ideas!
A dangerous recipe
On a recent road trip, I learnt a deadly new way of knocking back vodka: vodka pops.
Recipe courtesy Kholu (aka Juicy Bytes):
Recipe courtesy Kholu (aka Juicy Bytes):
- Mix one peg of vodka with equal amount of lime flavoured areated drink (Mirinda Lime or Limca recommended) in a glass
- Vacuum seal with palm of hand
- Shake violently till mixture is frothy
- Pop back immediately in single gulp
- Repeat after 10 minutes
After 3 such pops, life becomes very beautiful. Emperical (personal) evidence says that upto 6 pops cause no grevious bodily injury.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Mark-to-market: necessary evil?
Your house is burning. It is causing destruction of value. Because of your burning house, neighbourhood houses are also burning. There is a lot of destruction of public property - telephone wires, electric poles, roads, water pipelines etc. etc. The local municipal fire tender is fighting the blaze, but is losing the battle. Then, in one fell swoop, the mayor of your town manages to solve the problem of value destruction. How? She mandates - the burning of a few buildings is no longer is classified as fire. No fire, no destruction of value. Simple!
This is of course an exaggerated example, but to me it seems fairly analogous to what the US Congress is trying to do by forcing the Securities Commission and the Accounting Board to change conservative rules for carrying the value of assets on the balance sheet. Agreed, mark-to-market accounting rules are causing banks to take massive write downs, therefore requiring equity infusions. But changing the rule just because it is no longer convenient seems to me to be a travesty of facts. As an investor, I would want to know exactly what value my assets currently have, if they were to be liquidated today. I should not be able to hide behind illiquid or opaque markets. Because if this loophole is created, there is no way of knowing where it will end. Who is to say that a few more Enrons / Satyams / Hexawares would not continue thriving? Today these rules are causing taxpayer funding of tottering institutions. But the absense of these very rules may not even allow the rot to show any symptoms. In the absense of symptoms, the patient (or the institution) could just roll over and die suddenly, with little warning.
The truth, however bitter, is infinitely more palatable than falsehood! I hope sense prevails all around and politicians do not create a bigger mess of the already humongous mess that is the credit crisis.
This is of course an exaggerated example, but to me it seems fairly analogous to what the US Congress is trying to do by forcing the Securities Commission and the Accounting Board to change conservative rules for carrying the value of assets on the balance sheet. Agreed, mark-to-market accounting rules are causing banks to take massive write downs, therefore requiring equity infusions. But changing the rule just because it is no longer convenient seems to me to be a travesty of facts. As an investor, I would want to know exactly what value my assets currently have, if they were to be liquidated today. I should not be able to hide behind illiquid or opaque markets. Because if this loophole is created, there is no way of knowing where it will end. Who is to say that a few more Enrons / Satyams / Hexawares would not continue thriving? Today these rules are causing taxpayer funding of tottering institutions. But the absense of these very rules may not even allow the rot to show any symptoms. In the absense of symptoms, the patient (or the institution) could just roll over and die suddenly, with little warning.
The truth, however bitter, is infinitely more palatable than falsehood! I hope sense prevails all around and politicians do not create a bigger mess of the already humongous mess that is the credit crisis.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The ugly side of media
B-school placement season has just ended in India, and the media is full of ugly and inane stories on the fall in salaries on campus and the dramatic cut in the number of zillion dollar salaries. To me, this seems intrusive, misinformative and vouyeurism of the worst kind.
Firstly, there is something obscene in the media's obsession with salaries of freshly minted b-school grads. Speaking strictly from my experience, there is very little correlation between first campus jobs and eventual success in life. The placement process is so screwed up that the biggest factor in the decision making of a student is peer pressure and posturing. There is really no focus on area of interest, skills matching or and other long term parameter. I really think that b-schools should stop publicizing salacious details of pay packets, if only to stop the media's attention on short term and meaningless metrics of success.
Secondly, the poor students who are graduating this year are most likely under tremendous stress as it is - from family, friends, former colleagues and most of all their own expectations. Why gloat on their agony for this kind of stupid journalism? I just dont get it.
Firstly, there is something obscene in the media's obsession with salaries of freshly minted b-school grads. Speaking strictly from my experience, there is very little correlation between first campus jobs and eventual success in life. The placement process is so screwed up that the biggest factor in the decision making of a student is peer pressure and posturing. There is really no focus on area of interest, skills matching or and other long term parameter. I really think that b-schools should stop publicizing salacious details of pay packets, if only to stop the media's attention on short term and meaningless metrics of success.
Secondly, the poor students who are graduating this year are most likely under tremendous stress as it is - from family, friends, former colleagues and most of all their own expectations. Why gloat on their agony for this kind of stupid journalism? I just dont get it.
Chaman-e-bahar
My cute cousin (born and brought up in the US) primarily uses English as a medium of communication. On a recent visit to Hindi speaking relatives, she mentioned politely - "Aap ka chaman bahut accha hai". This had me in splits for quite some time. Technically, of course, she is absolutely right - literally translated, it means that your garden is very pretty. But having spent a substantial part of life in the hostel of an engineering college, I usually associate the word chaman with either 'ujda chaman' or 'chaman charlie' or the not-to-be-mentioned-on-a-family-blog 'chaman ch****a'.
There are quite a few Urdu words that are quite poetic and beautiful in their meaning (or even saying). 'Junoon' is one of my favourites. The English version (viz. passion) somehow just does not capture the madness or the obsession of junoon. Another quaint phrase is 'nosh farmayein' (try /sample it). One of the abiding memories I have of Ustad Bismillah Khan (on an interview on TV) was his use of 'Ama miyan', which somehow captured a lot of warmth and grace in it.
BTW - I did not know till some nifty searches on wikipedia that Urdu itself has its roots in the Turkish word 'Ordu', which means army encampment. The language started in the encampments off the Red Fort in Delhi c.1500 AD and was called Zabaan-e-Ordu (the language of the Urdu bazaar), soon to be shortened to just Urdu. Strange that something so poetic and charming has its origins in the violence of the military!
Friday, February 20, 2009
The Billion Perspective
With fiscal stimuli and bailout packages running into many hundred billions of dollars, the following perspective helps (courtesy Business Standard):
1) One billion seconds ago, it was 1959!
2) One billion minutes ago, Jesus Christ was alive!
3) One billion hours ago, humankind did not exist!
If you become a billionaire, and spend Rs. 50 every second of your life, and not earn anything on it at all, you will not run out of money for 50 years.
Amazing!
1) One billion seconds ago, it was 1959!
2) One billion minutes ago, Jesus Christ was alive!
3) One billion hours ago, humankind did not exist!
If you become a billionaire, and spend Rs. 50 every second of your life, and not earn anything on it at all, you will not run out of money for 50 years.
Amazing!
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The stimulus panacea
Going by conventional 'wisdom' (an oxymoron if I ever saw one!), there is an easy solution to the world's current ills. 'Stimulus' and 'Bailout'. To me, this looks analogous to an easy cure for alcoholism: whisky and vodka.
Real estate 'developers' in India have been very busy developing their (undeclared) bank accounts at the public's cost. Having dealt with a number of them myself, they seem to me to be cheats to the last guy - exorbitant pricing, late construction, totally unethical behavior are not just rampant, they are even expected by the consumer. They live by the maxim - what's mine is mine and what's yours is also mine. Their demand, therefore, that the government break laws and allow them to build more crappy and super expensive stuff (as a 'stimulus' you see), strikes me as the pinnacle of venality. Or look at the media industry. When the times were good, they were raking in the advertising dollars. Now that the economy is slowing down, they run to the government asking for 'stimulus'. Or infrastructure players (a certain airport developer comes to mind) who have asked for (and got!) higher consumer cesses in a manner which is illegal (according to the original contracts), unethical, and against business principles (oh, people not flying? simple way to get them to fly more - charge them heavily to use the airport!! Duh???)
This is a happy marriage of capitalism and socialism: capitalise all profits and socialise all risks. The fact that there is a huge moral hazard at play seems to escape everyone. Hello? I thought that risk was an essential cost for getting return. Business cycles were an undeniable part of life. But suddenly I find a slew of 'expert economists', abetted in no small measure by the media, sprouting out of the woodwork, expounding on their interpretations of Lord Keynes' theories.
To me, this is nothing but avarice, pure and simple. It is not my case that genuine government intervention is not required in industries which are suffering for factors outside their control. Export oriented industries for example (textile, gems and jewellery, fisheries) are having to lay off thousands and thousands due to events in other geographies. Help in the form of temporary loans, tax relief etc. is very much in order. But please, let us not allow all kinds of fly by night operators to pile on and grab taxpayers' monies in the name of 'stimulus'.
What we need is more accountability, and an ability to take the rough with the smooth. Not 'Bailout'.
Real estate 'developers' in India have been very busy developing their (undeclared) bank accounts at the public's cost. Having dealt with a number of them myself, they seem to me to be cheats to the last guy - exorbitant pricing, late construction, totally unethical behavior are not just rampant, they are even expected by the consumer. They live by the maxim - what's mine is mine and what's yours is also mine. Their demand, therefore, that the government break laws and allow them to build more crappy and super expensive stuff (as a 'stimulus' you see), strikes me as the pinnacle of venality. Or look at the media industry. When the times were good, they were raking in the advertising dollars. Now that the economy is slowing down, they run to the government asking for 'stimulus'. Or infrastructure players (a certain airport developer comes to mind) who have asked for (and got!) higher consumer cesses in a manner which is illegal (according to the original contracts), unethical, and against business principles (oh, people not flying? simple way to get them to fly more - charge them heavily to use the airport!! Duh???)
This is a happy marriage of capitalism and socialism: capitalise all profits and socialise all risks. The fact that there is a huge moral hazard at play seems to escape everyone. Hello? I thought that risk was an essential cost for getting return. Business cycles were an undeniable part of life. But suddenly I find a slew of 'expert economists', abetted in no small measure by the media, sprouting out of the woodwork, expounding on their interpretations of Lord Keynes' theories.
To me, this is nothing but avarice, pure and simple. It is not my case that genuine government intervention is not required in industries which are suffering for factors outside their control. Export oriented industries for example (textile, gems and jewellery, fisheries) are having to lay off thousands and thousands due to events in other geographies. Help in the form of temporary loans, tax relief etc. is very much in order. But please, let us not allow all kinds of fly by night operators to pile on and grab taxpayers' monies in the name of 'stimulus'.
What we need is more accountability, and an ability to take the rough with the smooth. Not 'Bailout'.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Joker in the Pack
I finished reading 'Joker in the Pack' today (actually that is a mis-statement). I began and ended within 3 hours.
This is a book jointly written by two very recent IIM alumni, and since a) I got a lot of mixed comments about my earlier post on the shoddy quality of IIM life books and b) since this is a half decent book, I humbly recommend this book.
Please dont expect any fundamental insights about life, or any masterpiece of literature. Instead, this is a brutally unvarnished, picture perfect mirror of daily life at IIM Bangalore. The book is entirely like its protagonist, a 'fighter' who comes out ok in the end. It is so accurate in its descriptions of places, people, processes and (above all) placements, that it brought back bouts of nostalgia :-). Long live IIM Bangalore!! (and its survivors)
This is a book jointly written by two very recent IIM alumni, and since a) I got a lot of mixed comments about my earlier post on the shoddy quality of IIM life books and b) since this is a half decent book, I humbly recommend this book.
Please dont expect any fundamental insights about life, or any masterpiece of literature. Instead, this is a brutally unvarnished, picture perfect mirror of daily life at IIM Bangalore. The book is entirely like its protagonist, a 'fighter' who comes out ok in the end. It is so accurate in its descriptions of places, people, processes and (above all) placements, that it brought back bouts of nostalgia :-). Long live IIM Bangalore!! (and its survivors)
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Chappal maro campaign
I am scarcely able to keep my temper when I hear of the latest shenanigans of the Sri Ram Sene. Their utterly logic-less, cowardly (and probably impotent) chief has become a talking head and a spouter of 'wisdom'. I do not want to give the a**h*** any publicity whatsoever. Even taking a cynical view of things, I think this guy is the prime example of the virus that will eat this country away. He (and his ilk) needs to be eradicated quickly, clinically and remorselessly.
I would love to personally throw my dirt smeared chappals at this guy, but since I am not in his vicinity, I can do my bit by supporting this campaign. Long live pubgoing, 'loose' and 'forward' women!!
I would love to personally throw my dirt smeared chappals at this guy, but since I am not in his vicinity, I can do my bit by supporting this campaign. Long live pubgoing, 'loose' and 'forward' women!!
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Beautiful Kashmir III
The last instalment of Gulmarg photos (courtesy Economic Times)
The cable car, general scenery and a sunken truck:
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Caught in the middle
Statutory warning: the thoughts in this post are a bit muddled.
Today we part fired our car cleaner. The guy was taking life very easy despite earlier warnings, and today the wife asked him to stop cleaning (or pretending to clean) her car. The guy protested a fair bit, and in his ramblings, mentioned that he was cleaning only our cars, that he had a job which gave him holiday on Friday, and that he should be given advance warning.
It so happens that the latest Perry Mason mystery that I've finished reading had a character who became rich by being a prospector in the Klondike. He lived a hard life till he struck it rich by the sweat of his brow. It kind of brought alive the passion of life in the early history of America - a true meritocracy where one made it (or did not make it) depending on their own skill / luck / hard work.
These happenings set off a chain of thought in my head - the car cleaner will now look for something else to make up for his lost income. And then I thought, this is what most people in our country actually do - try to figure out what will make them more money. Whether you take the bottom-of-pyramid guys like the aforementioned car cleaner, or scions of rich businessmen. Of course, it is a bit unfortunate that the former do this to fulfil their basic needs for food and shelter, but the point remains that a very very small percentage of people actually really care about holding down their jobs (which they may or may not like in the least).
Having observed various acquaintances in tier II towns, I find the same trend. No guy from any rich family, or a family that is not historically highly educated, that I have met ever spends time thinking about which job to try and get - they spend their time thinking which business they should be doing - how can they create wealth. In a perverse way, this is true for the very poor also. Only the middle class dude builds his entire life around, and indeed even defines herself, by the job they are holding.
The removal of this mental restriction from the educated middle class minds, in my humble opinion, will set the stage for a truly booming and inclusive economy. It will also possibly lead to more satisfying lives for all of us.
Today we part fired our car cleaner. The guy was taking life very easy despite earlier warnings, and today the wife asked him to stop cleaning (or pretending to clean) her car. The guy protested a fair bit, and in his ramblings, mentioned that he was cleaning only our cars, that he had a job which gave him holiday on Friday, and that he should be given advance warning.
It so happens that the latest Perry Mason mystery that I've finished reading had a character who became rich by being a prospector in the Klondike. He lived a hard life till he struck it rich by the sweat of his brow. It kind of brought alive the passion of life in the early history of America - a true meritocracy where one made it (or did not make it) depending on their own skill / luck / hard work.
These happenings set off a chain of thought in my head - the car cleaner will now look for something else to make up for his lost income. And then I thought, this is what most people in our country actually do - try to figure out what will make them more money. Whether you take the bottom-of-pyramid guys like the aforementioned car cleaner, or scions of rich businessmen. Of course, it is a bit unfortunate that the former do this to fulfil their basic needs for food and shelter, but the point remains that a very very small percentage of people actually really care about holding down their jobs (which they may or may not like in the least).
Having observed various acquaintances in tier II towns, I find the same trend. No guy from any rich family, or a family that is not historically highly educated, that I have met ever spends time thinking about which job to try and get - they spend their time thinking which business they should be doing - how can they create wealth. In a perverse way, this is true for the very poor also. Only the middle class dude builds his entire life around, and indeed even defines herself, by the job they are holding.
The removal of this mental restriction from the educated middle class minds, in my humble opinion, will set the stage for a truly booming and inclusive economy. It will also possibly lead to more satisfying lives for all of us.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Beautiful Kashmir II
More pictures (from our camera this time).
Alam's dad's home - we really basked in the warm hospitality
Dragon tree next to the house
Multiple layers of clothing - brrrrr
Chai stop
Enroute to Gulmarg
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Beautiful Kashmir
Photos from a trip at the end of 2008 (courtesy Juhi and Alam)
Mr. and Ms. Pathan:
What doesn't kill me makes me stronger :-)
The snow was thicker than 4 feet!
The beautiful Dal lake:
Mr. and Ms. Pathan:What doesn't kill me makes me stronger :-)The snow was thicker than 4 feet! Saturday, January 24, 2009
Thought on mortality
Suppose my epitaph says: He did nothing spectacular
Would it be complimentary (ie for this blog) or derogatory (ie the literal meaning)?
Would it be complimentary (ie for this blog) or derogatory (ie the literal meaning)?
Watching the watchmen (or commenting on the commenters)
One thing I have perused religiously is the 'discussion forum' at the end of each article on rediff.com. These learned fora for knowledgeable, measured and gentlemanly debate and discussion never fail to either make me guffaw or cringe in disbelieveing irritation.
Here is an interesting read on the phenomenon: http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2007/oct/24sidin.htm
Here is an interesting read on the phenomenon: http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2007/oct/24sidin.htm
Names that delight
I love Russian names. They allow me to rollllll my tongue over each syllable, and enjoy the sound to the fullest.
Example: I would love to live in Vladivostok. Vladddd - veeee - vostokkkkk
Or be friends with Anastasia Myskina. Mysssss-keee-na. Or Kouuuur-neee-ko-vaaaa
How about Oleg Deripaska? Dereeeeee-passss-kaaaa
And best of all: Yelena Schvelenko
Other suggestions welcome
Example: I would love to live in Vladivostok. Vladddd - veeee - vostokkkkk
Or be friends with Anastasia Myskina. Mysssss-keee-na. Or Kouuuur-neee-ko-vaaaa
How about Oleg Deripaska? Dereeeeee-passss-kaaaa
And best of all: Yelena Schvelenko
Other suggestions welcome
Tiger
My first post in the-year-of-redemption-that-never-came aka 2009 is thankfully about a good thing. White Tiger.
I must confess at the outset that from the broad outline of the story, I expected this to be a preachy, bleeding heart kind of book. It won a Booker? Oh, it must be reaching out to the Slumdog kind of audience. How bad is India, how miserable its people (disclaimer: I have read Q&A but haven't seen the movie, so this is an immature and potentially baseless comment). Thinking so, I had all but given this book a miss.
Till I was handed over a copy by Mom, with a must read recommendation. The wife read it, and was all praises for it. So I started reading it too. And I was hooked!!
I could not put it down and had to finish it very very late at night. It is not preachy in the least. It is an interesting account of potentially millions of true stories that happen in front of, ahead of, even all around me. It makes me sympathise with the totally amoral protagonist. I root for him. I even identify with him.
I am ashamed about the totally true description of society as a chicken coop. I admire the author for getting into the head of the protagonist and writing what seems like a fantastically authentic account of his life. The best part about the book is that it is essentially a happy story. It fills me with disgust, and also with hope. Aravind Adiga fully deserves his award. May he win many more.
In real life, I hope my generation sees many White Tigers.
I must confess at the outset that from the broad outline of the story, I expected this to be a preachy, bleeding heart kind of book. It won a Booker? Oh, it must be reaching out to the Slumdog kind of audience. How bad is India, how miserable its people (disclaimer: I have read Q&A but haven't seen the movie, so this is an immature and potentially baseless comment). Thinking so, I had all but given this book a miss.
Till I was handed over a copy by Mom, with a must read recommendation. The wife read it, and was all praises for it. So I started reading it too. And I was hooked!!
I could not put it down and had to finish it very very late at night. It is not preachy in the least. It is an interesting account of potentially millions of true stories that happen in front of, ahead of, even all around me. It makes me sympathise with the totally amoral protagonist. I root for him. I even identify with him.
I am ashamed about the totally true description of society as a chicken coop. I admire the author for getting into the head of the protagonist and writing what seems like a fantastically authentic account of his life. The best part about the book is that it is essentially a happy story. It fills me with disgust, and also with hope. Aravind Adiga fully deserves his award. May he win many more.
In real life, I hope my generation sees many White Tigers.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Misfortune
On annus horribilis, again: While I am happy to see 2008 go away, I try to put myself into the shoes of these gentlemen, and realize that I should be much happier than I am.
Consider Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, former chairman of Landbanki and prominent Icelander. He was worth $1.1bn 9 months ago. Today? Zilch. Or Oleg Deripaska. Net loss in 9 months? More than $18 billion. To put this number in perspective requires a lotttttt of zeros.
And who takes the cake? None other than Mr. Ambani Jr. He has lost $30 billion in 2008 (perhaps more precisely, the losers are the poor twits that invested in the Reliance Power IPO or his other grandiose schemes!)
But as always, Indians are top of the list. Together, Messrs. Ambani (Jr. and Sr.), Lakshmi Mittal and KP Singh of DLF have lost $100 billion this year. That is equivalent to more than 10% of India's GDP. So how petty my troubles!
Check out the entire list here for some vicarious thrills
Consider Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, former chairman of Landbanki and prominent Icelander. He was worth $1.1bn 9 months ago. Today? Zilch. Or Oleg Deripaska. Net loss in 9 months? More than $18 billion. To put this number in perspective requires a lotttttt of zeros.
And who takes the cake? None other than Mr. Ambani Jr. He has lost $30 billion in 2008 (perhaps more precisely, the losers are the poor twits that invested in the Reliance Power IPO or his other grandiose schemes!)
But as always, Indians are top of the list. Together, Messrs. Ambani (Jr. and Sr.), Lakshmi Mittal and KP Singh of DLF have lost $100 billion this year. That is equivalent to more than 10% of India's GDP. So how petty my troubles!
Check out the entire list here for some vicarious thrills
Finito
Finally today, 2008 comes to an end. A spectacular annus horribilis for many, just the ending of which brings a spring of hope in the heart.
I for one, am quite pleased to see the year end, and I fervently hope 2009 is much better. Perhaps it is futile to think that the completion of one revolution of the Earth around the Sun (from an arbitrary starting point, to boot!) will change anything. But a new year is always a good time for cleaning up the slate, making new beginnings, and letting go old misfortunes.
I dislike 2008 for many reasons, but primarily because I wasted it. I just went through routine the entire year, and truth be told, was happy to be swept by inertia. No new beginnings, no exciting plans made, just plain humdrum existence. At the end of it, I have nothing to remember - except bad memories, perhaps. Work, family, fitness, finances, self awareness, social activity - 2008 saw all these aspects of my life deteriorate.
I hope to change all this in 2009. Setting myself 3 specific tasks, I will endeavour to make the year count, so that this time next year, I can look back and not feel lost.
I for one, am quite pleased to see the year end, and I fervently hope 2009 is much better. Perhaps it is futile to think that the completion of one revolution of the Earth around the Sun (from an arbitrary starting point, to boot!) will change anything. But a new year is always a good time for cleaning up the slate, making new beginnings, and letting go old misfortunes.
I dislike 2008 for many reasons, but primarily because I wasted it. I just went through routine the entire year, and truth be told, was happy to be swept by inertia. No new beginnings, no exciting plans made, just plain humdrum existence. At the end of it, I have nothing to remember - except bad memories, perhaps. Work, family, fitness, finances, self awareness, social activity - 2008 saw all these aspects of my life deteriorate.
I hope to change all this in 2009. Setting myself 3 specific tasks, I will endeavour to make the year count, so that this time next year, I can look back and not feel lost.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Prescription for an epiphany
1) Go for a picture perfect holiday to Gulmarg (with lots of snow everywhere) with great friends
2) Return to a precious few days of holidays still left
3) Sit in glorious sunshine
4) Down a (large) can of beer
5) Read a delightful book
Realization soon dawns that god is in his heaven, and all's right with the world!!
6) Spread the word (through your mobile device) without leaving the sunshine
2) Return to a precious few days of holidays still left
3) Sit in glorious sunshine
4) Down a (large) can of beer
5) Read a delightful book
Realization soon dawns that god is in his heaven, and all's right with the world!!
6) Spread the word (through your mobile device) without leaving the sunshine
Friday, December 12, 2008
Vindication
Ratings agencies these days are not credible at all. Still, it feels good to be vindicated!
Check out this and this
And now I quote:
NEW DELHI: Blaming RBI's earlier tight monetary policy for contraction in India's industrial growth, Moody's on Friday said deceleration in
manufacturing output is a concern for overall economic growth. "Despite global market turmoil, India's central bank continued to tighten monetary policy until July...the moderation in demand is a result of the tight monetary policy settings in the first nine months," said Moody's Economy.com, a subsidiary of Moody's group. Pointing out that loosening cycle of monetary policy by RBI began only in October, Moody's said, it might not have led to an immediate rebound in domestic consumption. "As such, manufacturing orders from the domestic sector likely remained modest in November and December," it said. However, the RBI had yesterday stated that monetary measures taken by it were "appropriate". Industrial growth turned negative in October for the first time in 15 years, as manufacturing, which comprises around 80 per cent of the industry, shrank to 1.2 per cent growth in October from a whopping 13.8 per cent a year ago.
Check out this and this
And now I quote:
NEW DELHI: Blaming RBI's earlier tight monetary policy for contraction in India's industrial growth, Moody's on Friday said deceleration in
manufacturing output is a concern for overall economic growth. "Despite global market turmoil, India's central bank continued to tighten monetary policy until July...the moderation in demand is a result of the tight monetary policy settings in the first nine months," said Moody's Economy.com, a subsidiary of Moody's group. Pointing out that loosening cycle of monetary policy by RBI began only in October, Moody's said, it might not have led to an immediate rebound in domestic consumption. "As such, manufacturing orders from the domestic sector likely remained modest in November and December," it said. However, the RBI had yesterday stated that monetary measures taken by it were "appropriate". Industrial growth turned negative in October for the first time in 15 years, as manufacturing, which comprises around 80 per cent of the industry, shrank to 1.2 per cent growth in October from a whopping 13.8 per cent a year ago.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Query
Enough has been written and said about the events of last week in Mumbai. I have only one bit to add - something that puzzles me quite often.
If India thinks most of the recent terrorist activities on its soil have been directed by Dawood Ibrahim from his location in Karachi, why does it not assassinate the guy? What will it take - a focussed, small contingent, similar to a rapid strike force. A lot of other countries armies have such targetted armies (heck, even the inhuman terrorists did). Kill him. Whose permission are we waiting for?
Frankly, I feel embarrassed every time our PM gets on national TV and bleats about 'Pakistan's complicity' or Dawood Ibrahim's hand in 'dastardly acts'. Perhaps he can learn a thing or two from George 'Dubya' Bush - never mind all the fun everyone likes to make of him, he was able to ensure that there was no terrorist strike on the US since September 11, 2001.
We can choose to continue living (actually dying) like we are, or we can do something about it.
If India thinks most of the recent terrorist activities on its soil have been directed by Dawood Ibrahim from his location in Karachi, why does it not assassinate the guy? What will it take - a focussed, small contingent, similar to a rapid strike force. A lot of other countries armies have such targetted armies (heck, even the inhuman terrorists did). Kill him. Whose permission are we waiting for?
Frankly, I feel embarrassed every time our PM gets on national TV and bleats about 'Pakistan's complicity' or Dawood Ibrahim's hand in 'dastardly acts'. Perhaps he can learn a thing or two from George 'Dubya' Bush - never mind all the fun everyone likes to make of him, he was able to ensure that there was no terrorist strike on the US since September 11, 2001.
We can choose to continue living (actually dying) like we are, or we can do something about it.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Teji ma time nathi, mandi ma mood nathi
Hilarious article in the Economic Times (trust the ToI group to find something titilating in the global recession)!
Also made me think - what a wonderful thing to be a researcher! And even more, a sexologist. I wonder what a sexologist does(Apart from researching such profound topics, that is)
Also made me think - what a wonderful thing to be a researcher! And even more, a sexologist. I wonder what a sexologist does(Apart from researching such profound topics, that is)
A Painful Comparison
For me, today's joke of the day was this: our esteemed Finance Minister thinks all is hunky dory with the Indian economy, and we will grow at 9% next year. This very same gentleman was, till a few days ago, parrotting the phrase that Indian GDP will grow at 8%+ in FY09. And we all know just how unlikely that is.
The small matter that his boss, the Prime Minister, publicly keeps saying that growth would be in the range of 7%-7.5% in FY09 did not deter him in the least. Nor the fact that industrial growth in the 1st half of FY09 has been HALF that of last year. Or that exports have actually DECLINED year on year in October, and this trend is not likely to change anytime soon. Or that tax collections have DIPPED from last year in October. Someone should explain to the esteemed Finance Minister of India that talking does not equal doing. Or that wasted opportunities / regressive policies DO come back to haunt the nation (but who cares - its the next government's problem, I can hear the FM smirk!!)
I cannot help but compare the painfully slow response of our policymakers to worldwide recession to that of US policymakers. The US Fed had been easing liquidity long before the current liquidity crunch, they had approved a fiscal stimulus before recession became a reality (the point is not that these measures were not enough - the point is that someone was trying to be ahead of the curve and trying to keep on top of things). Contrast that with our country where the FM behaves like an ostrich and the government takes action (or takes NO action) after the fact. Or compare this with China where policymakers used good times to build a vast treasure chest of cash, which they will now deploy for building more infrastructure (they are already much ahead of India in this aspect, and it certainly looks like they will get even further ahead).
Our government has frittered away strong tax collections of the last 5 years to a) increase wasteful subsidies - the farm loan waiver? b) increase wasteful expenditure - the Employment Guarantee Scheme? c) Implement regressive policies - administered pricing of petrol / cement / steel / etc etc. As a result, we are running a fiscal deficit close to 8% of GDP, and have been caught out when the times are turning bad. Our central bank actually INCREASED interest rates as recently as July, saying that growth is a given, and inflation must be contained.
Looks like our policymakers are indulging in rear-view driving. Painful!!
The small matter that his boss, the Prime Minister, publicly keeps saying that growth would be in the range of 7%-7.5% in FY09 did not deter him in the least. Nor the fact that industrial growth in the 1st half of FY09 has been HALF that of last year. Or that exports have actually DECLINED year on year in October, and this trend is not likely to change anytime soon. Or that tax collections have DIPPED from last year in October. Someone should explain to the esteemed Finance Minister of India that talking does not equal doing. Or that wasted opportunities / regressive policies DO come back to haunt the nation (but who cares - its the next government's problem, I can hear the FM smirk!!)
I cannot help but compare the painfully slow response of our policymakers to worldwide recession to that of US policymakers. The US Fed had been easing liquidity long before the current liquidity crunch, they had approved a fiscal stimulus before recession became a reality (the point is not that these measures were not enough - the point is that someone was trying to be ahead of the curve and trying to keep on top of things). Contrast that with our country where the FM behaves like an ostrich and the government takes action (or takes NO action) after the fact. Or compare this with China where policymakers used good times to build a vast treasure chest of cash, which they will now deploy for building more infrastructure (they are already much ahead of India in this aspect, and it certainly looks like they will get even further ahead).
Our government has frittered away strong tax collections of the last 5 years to a) increase wasteful subsidies - the farm loan waiver? b) increase wasteful expenditure - the Employment Guarantee Scheme? c) Implement regressive policies - administered pricing of petrol / cement / steel / etc etc. As a result, we are running a fiscal deficit close to 8% of GDP, and have been caught out when the times are turning bad. Our central bank actually INCREASED interest rates as recently as July, saying that growth is a given, and inflation must be contained.
Looks like our policymakers are indulging in rear-view driving. Painful!!
Monday, November 10, 2008
Catch 22
I knew I was truly affected by the fear in the capital markets when I found myself questioning the need for this!! Or this!!
ICICI Bank offering 11-12% yields on 1-2.5 year fixed deposits? Is their credit risk so high, that they are offering higher returns to compensate? Poor ICICI Bank - they are damned if they do, and damned if they dont!
Reminds me of Catch 22: A pilot could be excused from a suicide bombing mission only on grounds of unsound mind. However, the fact that the pilot wanted to be excused from the suicide mission proved that he could NOT be of unsound mind!! Joseph Heller lives on! (though I thought Closing Time - the sequel to Catch 22, was vastly inferior)
ICICI Bank offering 11-12% yields on 1-2.5 year fixed deposits? Is their credit risk so high, that they are offering higher returns to compensate? Poor ICICI Bank - they are damned if they do, and damned if they dont!
Reminds me of Catch 22: A pilot could be excused from a suicide bombing mission only on grounds of unsound mind. However, the fact that the pilot wanted to be excused from the suicide mission proved that he could NOT be of unsound mind!! Joseph Heller lives on! (though I thought Closing Time - the sequel to Catch 22, was vastly inferior)
Monday, November 03, 2008
Birds of a feather...
PS: Click on pictures to enlarge and make out details better!
The wife and I decided to give vent to the nature-loving beings hidden within each of us, and took off on a weekend trip to the Bharatpur bird sanctuary one cool October Saturday. The 190km drive from Delhi was a breeze, with the NH2 allowing us to cruise along at >100kmph quite easily.
The Bharatpur bird sanctuary is spread over an area of 29 sq km, most of it marshland. For the past 5 years, little rain had almost dried the place up, with the result that most migratory birds had given the place a miss, but good rain in June this year ensured a record turnout from our feathered friends (some of them flying in all the way from Egypt!). Aug-Oct is usually peak season for Indian birds in Bharatpur, and Oct-Jan for foreign birds, so October was witness to a happy confluence of both types.
We had booked ourselves into the ITDC resort within the sanctuary, and it was quite good, reasonable, clean and with good service. We set off at 6am sharp, armed somewhat inadequately with a toy binoculars that the wife had dug out from her childhood treasures, but with hardy cameras. One can walk, bike, boat or take an electric car within the sanctuary.
We saw a plethora of very very pretty birds (some of which can be seen in the photos here - check out captions for description). My personal favourites were the woodpecker (persistent and amazingly strong for its size), the kingfisher (extremely colorful and beautiful), the sarus crane (for its lifelong fidelity to its partner), the snake bird (for being an expert underwater swimmer), and the spotted owl (for being huge - over 4 feet large - and extremely owlish :-)
At the end of the visit, which took all of 2 days from beginning to end, we determined that we should do this much more often!
The wife and I decided to give vent to the nature-loving beings hidden within each of us, and took off on a weekend trip to the Bharatpur bird sanctuary one cool October Saturday. The 190km drive from Delhi was a breeze, with the NH2 allowing us to cruise along at >100kmph quite easily.
The Bharatpur bird sanctuary is spread over an area of 29 sq km, most of it marshland. For the past 5 years, little rain had almost dried the place up, with the result that most migratory birds had given the place a miss, but good rain in June this year ensured a record turnout from our feathered friends (some of them flying in all the way from Egypt!). Aug-Oct is usually peak season for Indian birds in Bharatpur, and Oct-Jan for foreign birds, so October was witness to a happy confluence of both types.
We had booked ourselves into the ITDC resort within the sanctuary, and it was quite good, reasonable, clean and with good service. We set off at 6am sharp, armed somewhat inadequately with a toy binoculars that the wife had dug out from her childhood treasures, but with hardy cameras. One can walk, bike, boat or take an electric car within the sanctuary.
We saw a plethora of very very pretty birds (some of which can be seen in the photos here - check out captions for description). My personal favourites were the woodpecker (persistent and amazingly strong for its size), the kingfisher (extremely colorful and beautiful), the sarus crane (for its lifelong fidelity to its partner), the snake bird (for being an expert underwater swimmer), and the spotted owl (for being huge - over 4 feet large - and extremely owlish :-)
At the end of the visit, which took all of 2 days from beginning to end, we determined that we should do this much more often!
Friday, October 24, 2008
Revision
I think my earlier post today was written in a bit of anger at the RBI's (in)actions. Later events have caused me to revise that opinion.
As we speak, trading in the Dow Jones and S&P futures has been halted since they have fallen to the maximum permittable limit. European markets are down by 9-10% (only). Asian markets have closed down 9-12%. The Indian Nifty 50 index has closed down 14%. Why? Because everywhere, everyone thinks the world economy is going into recession. Not so the esteemed RBI.
So now, in more measured tones, I can blandly state the following - the Indian Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India are crazy lunatics (I wish to use stronger words but propriety prevents me from saying f***ing idiots since this is, after all, a family blog :-)).
As we speak, trading in the Dow Jones and S&P futures has been halted since they have fallen to the maximum permittable limit. European markets are down by 9-10% (only). Asian markets have closed down 9-12%. The Indian Nifty 50 index has closed down 14%. Why? Because everywhere, everyone thinks the world economy is going into recession. Not so the esteemed RBI.
So now, in more measured tones, I can blandly state the following - the Indian Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India are crazy lunatics (I wish to use stronger words but propriety prevents me from saying f***ing idiots since this is, after all, a family blog :-)).
Wake up and smell the ...
Here is a quick quiz:
True or False?
True or False?
- The world is spinning rapidly into a period of deep recession
- Millions of jobs will be lost, in developed and developing economies
- Commodity prices (oil, metals, foodgrains) have crashed and are only going further south
- Consumption is declining (will decline even more) as people have less disposable incomes to spend
- India is not immune to the global slowdown (as seen by the 1.3% growth in the Index of Industrial Production for August) and is going to feel the shocks of a slowdown. Already Q2 results have been terrible and things are going to get worse before they get better.
If you answered True to any / all of the above questions, you are in disagreement with the esteemed Reserve Bank of India. In its mid year policy review, the honorable central bank has kept key rates unchanged (repo rate at 8%, CRR at 6.5%, reverse repo rate at 6%). It has not even cut the SLR. It thinks inflation will be at 7% for the year and GDP growth rate will be 8% (no, this is not a typo). At a time when Keynesian stimulus is the order of the day (this is not only my opinion, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Economics Prize winner for 2008 thinks so too), our central bankers prefer to be dyed-in-the-wool monetarists!
This attitude reminds me of the Indian economy in 1994-95 when similar bull-headedness (or should I call it bear-headedness?) in terms of interest rates cost India a full 4 years of lost growth. Anyone listening to history at the RBI?
One of you or the honourable RBI is smoking dope, and I dont think it is you!! By the time these esteemed gentlemen wake up and smell the shit, the economy will be in a shambles, credit growth will have crashed and investments would have been totally squeezed out of the system. But hey! who cares?? It will be time for a new election...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Alarming analysis
Something is wrong with my blog posts these days. The quantity is still chugging along, but something seems to be an issue with the quality. The following analysis says it all:
From this graph I can see that (before this post):
From this graph I can see that (before this post):- On average, I have posted exactly 5 entries per month in calendar year 2008
- Each of the 50 posts have received exactly 2.0 comments per post
- The quality of the blog (comments per post - right hand axis - used as proxy) has been steadily declining - from a high of almost 5 comments per post in April (with one particular post gathering a relatively massive 14 comments!), the number has come down to a pathetic 1 comment in 5 posts of October. (And if I discount comments from family, this number would total up to zilch!!)
Clearly I am not writing about the right things (or in the right way). Time to put on the thinking cap!!
Unheralded triumph
In the hoopla about India handing out Australia a decisive test loss, popular media almost missed on a greater achievement - Vishwanathan Anand has handed out Vladimir Kramnik 3 defeats in 6 games (out of a total possible of 12) in the playoff for the World Chess Championship.
Amazing feat, given that chess is truly a global sport, played in almost all countries in the world, and that this would be the 3rd time that Anand would be winning the global crown! Anand's win is testimony to the tremendous practice and impeccable preparation he has made for the match. After having defeated Kramnik in the 3rd game, it was always going to be easier for Anand (since Kramnik would have to keep trying to take risks to win a game), but the domination that Anand has shown over his rival has been unprecedented.
More power to Vishwanathan Anand!!
Read all about the exciting game 6 here (courtesy rediff)
Amazing feat, given that chess is truly a global sport, played in almost all countries in the world, and that this would be the 3rd time that Anand would be winning the global crown! Anand's win is testimony to the tremendous practice and impeccable preparation he has made for the match. After having defeated Kramnik in the 3rd game, it was always going to be easier for Anand (since Kramnik would have to keep trying to take risks to win a game), but the domination that Anand has shown over his rival has been unprecedented.
More power to Vishwanathan Anand!!
Read all about the exciting game 6 here (courtesy rediff)
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Time to go?
I feel a little embarrassed these days every time India plays test cricket. Not because of India winning or losing, but because of the excrutiating focus on the performance of Messrs. Dravid, Ganguly, Tendulkar, Laxman and Kumble. Every failure is dissed and taken apart, while successes (increasingly rare, it must be said!) are overlooked.
These gentlemen have served their country long and with dignity, passion and purpose. I am sure they feel the pain of failure much more than the contemptible 'critic' who has probably not enough skill to throw a cricket ball 5 feet. Why then do they still face the music?
Is it possible that their love for the game makes them want to keep playing on? I only need to look at Adam Gilchrist or Shane Warne, who retired at the top of their game. Did they not love cricket? Or is it their belief that they are best suited to help India win. I do not think this notion can be supported by facts. At least in the last few years, I think India has won whenever it has been ready to scrap it out, with aggressive, unafraid young blood. Whether the T20 World Cup, the One Day series in Australia and Sri Lanka, the architects of India's wins have not been these gentlemen.
Noting another day of test capitulation to Australia by these gents today, I think the time has come for them to make up their minds. I do not mind India losing to Australia or Sri Lanka with an inexperienced team. But I am not ready for it to lose with these towering talents playing. It is time for them to go gracefully.
Return of the plodder
The financial catastrophe that is engulfing us will benefit me (and perhaps the world) in some ways.
For one, it brings back into focus the value of 'real' things. Real assets vs. ephemeral paper profits, 'real' work vs. jugglery on an excel sheet, 'real' hard work vs. quick and easy money in a few blockbuster years. Think of it, my parents' generation worked long and hard years to achieve something in life. They were loyal to their employers, sincere in their work and willing to postpone immediate gratification for the benefit of their children. They had character. What makes me deserving of much more pelf than they did at my age? Certainly not maturity, not character and not ability.
For another, it will mark the return of sanity to huge discrepancies in compensation. What does a financial services employee do that is so important and unique that she gets paid 100x the normal Jane in equally (perhaps more) important functions like teaching, administration or manufacturing? Other than spending 23 hours a day, 6 days a week in office? In my humble opinion, not much. A bubble which was assuming gigantic proportions has been pricked.
Unfortunate that in the next few years a lot of people will pay for the mistakes of a few. People on the verge of retirement who are seeing their investments become worthless, ordinary taxpayers who will face higher tax regimes, ordinary producers who will see consumption drop, and ordinary consumers who will see inability to get leverage. But it will bring back into focus the basics that our parents taught us - save for a rainy day, work hard and do not worry about the fruit of your labour, live within your means. It will build 'real' character, not dollar filled notions of self worth.
It will bring back into focus the worth of the plodder. I look forward to learning my lessons!
Friday, October 10, 2008
In Bruges
Foreword: I seem to be blogging only about movies these days. Perhaps it shows my world view is getting narrow, or that I am not thinking enough!! (Note to self: no more movie reviews for the next 10 posts!)
A quick trip to the US saw me indulge in my favourite activity - watching lots of movies on the plane. While 'The Happening' (M Night Shyamalan's latest) was eerie, 'Wanted' (Angelina Jolie's take on the Matrix) a total waste of time, and 'What Happens in Vegas' (the movie with the highest paid amount to any actor - Cameron Diaz got $$$$50 million for this movie!!) entirely predictable and stupid, there was one movie that made the journey worthwhile. 'In Bruges' (pronounced Bruge) is a fantastic movie.
A dark comedy, it is in the same genre as 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels' and 'Snatch'. Stupendous acting from Colin Farell and Ralph Fiennes, a haunting background score, stupendously beautiful settings, a twisted plot and extremely quirky dialogue mark the high points of the movie. Highly recommended!!
It made me want to holiday in Bruges and soak in the surroundings.
A quick trip to the US saw me indulge in my favourite activity - watching lots of movies on the plane. While 'The Happening' (M Night Shyamalan's latest) was eerie, 'Wanted' (Angelina Jolie's take on the Matrix) a total waste of time, and 'What Happens in Vegas' (the movie with the highest paid amount to any actor - Cameron Diaz got $$$$50 million for this movie!!) entirely predictable and stupid, there was one movie that made the journey worthwhile. 'In Bruges' (pronounced Bruge) is a fantastic movie.
A dark comedy, it is in the same genre as 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels' and 'Snatch'. Stupendous acting from Colin Farell and Ralph Fiennes, a haunting background score, stupendously beautiful settings, a twisted plot and extremely quirky dialogue mark the high points of the movie. Highly recommended!!
It made me want to holiday in Bruges and soak in the surroundings.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
A Wednesday to remember
A Wednesday (despite the strange name) is a movie that blew me away. Seldom have I seen a real Bollywood thriller, but this one certainly qualifies as one. An extremely taut screenplay, reality dripping from most situations, with nary a dialogue or scene wasted, and powerful performances from almost all characters (Anupam Kher and Jimmy Shergill should win some awards for this movie, per me) make the movie a pleasure to watch. Watching the movie on my parents' home theatre system, with a nice cold beer, I was actually anxious to find out what happens next. Although the climax is artificially convenient, it makes one think and wish - what if? Highly recommended!
I think movies like this one (low budget, no unnecessary song and dances, author backed characters and strong scripts) herald a new wave of good Indian cinema. Aamir (reviewed earlier, somewhat gushingly :-) and A Wednesday, both coincidentally made by SpotBoy Films (UTV's low budget cinema division) make me lick my chops in anticipation of more of the good stuff.
I think movies like this one (low budget, no unnecessary song and dances, author backed characters and strong scripts) herald a new wave of good Indian cinema. Aamir (reviewed earlier, somewhat gushingly :-) and A Wednesday, both coincidentally made by SpotBoy Films (UTV's low budget cinema division) make me lick my chops in anticipation of more of the good stuff.
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