Wednesday, September 09, 2009

And this is how it should be done...

This is a different guy on the same question:

Q: What about Tata Motors, can the current price be justified? Are you revising your price targets there?

A: Fundamentally, it’s difficult to recommend buying Tata Motors at these levels. First of all the biggest chunk of revenue at about 65-70% still comes from JLR which is geared to the US and Western European markets. That revenue and earnings stream remains quite unpredictable so there is this huge degree of variability in the earnings forecast for Tata Motors. With that kind of a risk I think, these valuations may not be justified at the current levels. In the auto’s side, there are far better opportunities which have a far steadier earnings stream and a lesser degree of risk associated with the business which one can buy. It’s difficult to recommend a risky earnings stream at high valuations at this point in time.

This is a decent answer - the guy talks about headwinds for the company, says that financial performance is difficult to predict, and that a risky earnings stream trading at high valuations is not to be recommended. Anyone who buys after this knows that she is taking a pure punt. This is what a good analyst should do.

1 comment:

bluesky said...

will be at 1000 sonner than anyone believes!