Ambiguity as sin

I read John Le Carre's most recent novel, A Most Wanted Man, entirely in a book store. As often before, I was enraptured by its tight plot, totally believeable characters and most of all by its sense of innate morality. It also had the old Le Carre characteristic - the good guys never win (unless it is Smiley - but then Smiley was such a loser in life that he could be forgiven his wins).

As with his other truly memorable books, the story also disturbed me. Because it was so real, and because it probably happens so many times in this world we live in. I looked, perhaps for the first time, upon this world of ours from the point of view of a devout follower of Islam. And did not find it to be a safe or even reassuring world. Innocence is a sin, might is right and morality is a liability. The cruel logic of Guantanamo Bay overrides the human virtues of compassion and justice. We live in a world of justice by strength, justice of the winner, justice as fiat.

Usually I find Le Carre books morally ambiguous - everyone has a point of view which can be understood, Smiley or Karla. But not in A Most Wanted Man. Sometimes ambiguity has to be recognized as what it is - a sin. Something is right, and another thing is wrong. And one has to do the right thing. The right thing is humanity and compassion.

As a character in the book says - five percent of him was bad. But if I look at myself, can I say the same? For me, its probably closer to fifteen. Or even twenty. This is as true for me or you as it is for the character. Recognizing this, and making allowance for it - this is what will make life better for all of us.

Interesting analysis

This post comes from material posted on Yahoo! finance

Professors Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity) have produced a great series of charts that compare the progress of this worldwide recession with the Great Depression of 1929.

Effects on world industrial output and world trade volumes are worse than the Great Depression of 1929!
The good news, however, is that equity markets the world over have been quick to price all this in, perhaps protecting us from the slow painful slide seen last time around (fast and painful, or slow and painful? i prefer the former!)
And add to that the massive (I mean MASSIVE) monetary and fiscal stimulus laid on by governments and central banks. Raises the hope that today's green shoots are really the oaks of tomorrow!!

Service economy? Ha ha

There are no two ways about it - our service economy sucks! Getting a broadband connection at home (this is the most premium plan, and with the 'best' operator) is proving to be a headache. This is after my earlier broadband connection would provide such terrible connectivity that I would find it quicker to use a data card on my computer!

This is not just about broadband, or even telecom. I don't understand why we do not have a good, professional service economy. Where if I am told that xyz will happen on a certain day, it does happen on that day (or even that week)! This is true even of the largest retailer in India, who commits delivery on a certain day but actually delivers on some other day.

Earlier, this was a given - because everything was Govt. (or should I say bureaucracy) owned, and the Govt. certainly does not care about service. It is much more difficult to understand now - we have private companies with a profit motive, we have differential pricing, we have pretty much all elements in place for great service. But do we get it? Unfortunately, the answer is no!

My hypothesis is that this stems from 2 key factors - a) the chaos and unpredictability of daily life in our cities. I cannot predict to within 30 minutes the time it will take me to get from place A to place B, or whether I will find parking there, or whether the guy I'm supposed to meet or the item I'm supposed to collect will be there at all! In such an environment, even a small variable can effect output tremendously. Therefore service providers are unable to predict things themselves b) we are horrible at communication and are very short term thinkers. We think saying something conveniently now (Yes surely I will deliver today / Guaranteed madam, kaam aaj ho jayega) is enough to satisfy the customer, rather than say something not so pleasing, but then keep the promise. Ergo, we are short term optimizers rather than long term strategics.

Whatever the reason, our service economy sucks!

99

I recently came across the following (true) facts:

1. Statistically speaking, all girls in Delhi are called either a) Pooja or b) Neha
2. All taxi drivers in Delhi are thieves
3. Bhojpuri movies' 'dashing young heroes' are usually middle aged, balding and paunchy men
4. There is a thriving satta bazaar in Delhi
5. Mumbai goons have no chance against a) Delhi police and b) the Delhi chill
6. Cyrus Broacha is funnier in real life than in a funny role

All these were gleaned from a watching of the latest (and only in a long long time!) Bollywood noveau middle house cinema offering - to wit - 99.

The movie is a good timepass watch, entertaining in parts, and with good, believeable characters (except Soha Ali Khan as the eponymous Pooja, in a role so wooden that environmental enthusiasts will embrace her as worth preservation!). Mahesh Manjarekar, Vinod Khanna, Boman Irani and a really good guy called 'Kuber' provide solid performances. The scripting is good, and the situations (while over the top) are believeable.

Definitely worth a dekko.

Gaga over Yaga

Yaga Venugopal Reddy, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2003-2008 is being credited as being the 'saviour of the Indian financial system' from the impact of the global meltdown (a newspaper articles' words, not mine!). The dude sure seems pretty prescient in hindsight, since he moved swiftly (and with little regard to the netas in the government, it must be noted) to quell what seems now to be an obvious bubble in real estate prices and unsecured credit by raising interest rates. No wonder the guy is in great demand as a speaker at various international fora on financial system stability and the role of central banks.

What Reddy did during his tenure seems all the more amazing now since at that time, it seemed quite a contrarian and rather obstinate thing to do. Indeed, if Greenspan had done what Reddy did, perhaps we would not have this catastrophe of a credit crunch on our hands and perhaps many millions of jobs would not be lost. It is therefore instructive to see what Reddy thinks now.

Interestingly enough, in an interview with Mint, he says: "that the underlying inflationary pressure in India is very high" and that "one should take into account the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and not the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) while taking monetary and fiscal measures. In contrast to WPI, the country’s most widely tracked weekly inflation index, CPI reflects the price of goods at the retail level. For the week ended 25 April, WPI inflation was 0.70%, but CPI for industrial workers continued to be high at 9.63%, for February 2009 (the latest available number)." Bang on!! I always laugh when I hear strange numbers each week on CNBC: Inflation is now 0.2%, now 0.5%!! Huh?? Nothing seems to be becoming cheaper (except petrol, the price of which was reduced in February), so how can this be?

He goes on to say "the challenge before the authorities is unwinding the packages in due course. Otherwise, vested interests (will) develop in some stimulus packages and that will add to the inflationary pressures." Further: "You cannot do recovery at any cost. Your recovery has to be at an appropriate price.” The guy is still being farsighted and rightly indentifies that the focus on blind copying of 'stimulus' by our government (for populist reasons perhaps? or for bailing out property 'developers' who really deserve to be bankrupt) could be sowing the seeds of future pain and degrowth in India.

I wish we had more courageous (and sensible!) people like Yaga at the helm of economic policymaking!

Celebration!! and a new beginning...

This is the 200th post on nothing-spectacular! When I started, I had no idea that this blog would become such a natural and integral part of my life. I hope this journey continues...

This post is special for another reason. The beta version of the Five X Capital website is launched! Please visit http://www.fivexcapital.in and send in your comments / suggestions / brickbats. The site is till date the only thing I have to show for 7 years of education and 3 degrees (BTech, MTech in Computer Science and MBA)!!!! A humbling experience...

Green shoots notwithstanding...

Not wanting to be a party pooper, I can't help but feel uneasy while publishing the following pictures (obtained from The Business Insider). While this may of course not happen, it would hurt no one to be cautious!

First up, a chart showing that a 30% rise does not mean that the tide has turned: such rallies were common in other long term downtrending markets (Nasdaq 2000, Nikkei 1990s, Dow Great Depression, and current credit crisis). Of course, this argument falls flat if one argues that the current credit crisis is not as severe as the others - but it seems to me that it should definitely be more severe than the tech bust of 2000-01?

Next, a really long term chart of the S&P Composite - note that all bottoms are formed when the index moves substantially below the long term trend line. Will it defy history and stop at the line, or will it go below, as it always has?
Points to ponder! Is cash going to be king?

Reverie of a hazy afternoon

Its really hot outside - the hottest April in Delhi in 50 years, the media would have me believe. It is torture to do anything in such heat - anything but sip a cool drink, that is. The telly bleebs on while I listlessly check the time and trawl web pages on enabling the login/password feature on the wife's company's website.

On comes a corny song from the rustically named 'Singh is Kingg'. Neha Dhupia lights up the screen. I flip channels to IPL II (private thought: what a disaster!). The mind lingers still on 'Singh is Kingg'. I think - hey! I rather like Neha Dhupia. I wonder why this is so. I dont really like Katrina Kaif. Nor Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. I positively detest Shilpa Shetty. Sonam Kapoor is ok. Vidya Balan is embarrassing. Why do I like Neha Dhupia?? I think its for the same reason I like Gul Panag.

I think I like her because of her roles - Mithya. 12:30 ki last local. Some shady Kareena Kapoor movie where she is the elder sister. I like her (as I do Gul Panag) because she seems to be able to hold her own in a tough world. Able to give back as good as she gets. Able to stand out, and not blend in with the crowd. A strong lady. Trying to be different (in weird ways though - by undressing and making provocative statements). But hey, still different. Still unique.

The mind slowly focuses back on reality. The login/password feature beckons. I trawl more pages. The heat gets worse.

Traders, Guns and Money

Although I read this delighful book a few months ago, I was reminded of it today as the author (Satyajit Das) wrote a long article on the whole 'green shoots' business in the Mint today.

The book is a side splitting and very very accurate take on life in the daring world of derivatives. The author, thanks to his massively varied experiences (true or apocryphal, I know not!) paints a rollicking picture of banks vs. clients (sophisticated companies, ignorant companies, MNCs, small noodle makers - the only thing they have in common is that they get shafted :-). Replete with incidents like the 'big swinging dick' trader farting (and more... its so gross its quite funny) loudly to make his point on the trading floor, or an English lawyer turning the tables on the big bad bankers from Goldman or the hookers used by the sales guys for their Indonesian clients, the book keeps one laughing most of the time. Add to that the fact that our dude author talks very intelligently about derivatives, and you have a winner on your hands.

Some excerpts (from this interview of the author):
Story 1
A trader I know thought that it might be useful to have his business cards translated into Japanese. His official title was “Trader- Fixed Income”. The Japanese translation was “Trader on Fixed Salary”. The card brought strange looks from the bemused Japanese clients. It seemed more than a little was lost in translation.
Story 2
Around 1999, I met an ERM (Enterprise Risk Management) advocate,. Dudley , the head of risk for an investment bank. He wanted to meet me. I had no idea why. I soon discovered that Dudley had reached ERM. It was the “new”, best-est thing. It was revolutionary. Dudley was at the forefront. He would give me an example of the problems he was trying to model.
“Let’s say our head trader has a complex trading strategy only he understands, yes”. I nodded. I didn’t think any strategy could be that complex, at least if a trader had put it on. But it was quite likely that no one knew about it. The trader may have not told anyone. “Let’s say the trader bicycles to work”. I did not think this likely. Traders prefer Porsches. Not wishing to prolong the discussion, I did not disagree.
“On the way to work, he is hit by a bus. His mobile phone is knocked away from him and damaged. He is unconscious. Assume that simultaneously market prices move due to surprise news. This news is vital to the trader’s position. He does not know. Nobody knows what to do with his position”. I nodded. “That’s not all. Assume simultaneously, there is fraud in another bank”. I nodded in real agreement. That was very likely. “This bank goes into bankruptcy. It creates a financial crisis. This of course affects the trader’s position. He doesn’t know of course. He’s unconscious”. I was hoping he would get to the point soon.
“At the same time, assume there is an accident at a power plant. There is a blackout. The bank’s back-up generator fails. The mechanic forgot to check the fuel tank. The bank’s computer system goes down. The trader can’t get prices or model the risk on his position”. I reminded Dudley that the trader was unconscious, maybe deceased. “Exactly”, he replied cheerily. It went on.
Eventually after a tragedy of biblical proportions had been outlined, Dudley reached the end. “I am modeling the probability that such an event could occur”. For me, it was one step too far in the search for “holistic risk”. Risk management seemed to have completed its transformation into pure entertainment. Dudley seemed the epitome of a risk manager who would drown crossing a river that was 12 inches in depth on average.
Story 3
Nero and I marketed together a fair bit. I provided the technical bits. He smoozed the clients. Nero and I were making a pitch for a new structured product with a portfolio manager from an overseas fund over dinner. Dinner was a 3 martini, 2 bottles of French red wine and cigar and brandy affair. I kept looking for a moment to interject and explain the structure and benefits of the trade. I didn’t get a chance.
Towards the end of the evening, the fund manager turned to Nero and said: “The girls are coming up to my room, right?” I looked at Nero surprised. “You didn’t forget the stuff, it drives the girls wild?” Nero muttered something and carefully steered the conversation in a different direction. After dinner, Nero and I left the hotel. Nero stopped and drew his hand in a cutting motion across his throat. “Remember IBGYBG,” he said. “I be gone, you be gone. Got it kid.” A week later the portfolio manager was on the phone. “Been thinking about your deal. Like it a lot. Send me a term sheet. I think we can do something there.” We closed a juicy trade for $200 million booking profits of over $2 million.
Years later, one of Nero’s boys was pitching a deal to a client. Coincidentally, I happened to be a consultant to the customer. During the presentation, I asked some questions. Nothing personal, I was doing my job. The presentation wasn’t going to plan. Eventually, the salesman stood up and said: “The product is unsuitable for you. It is intended for someone less sophisticated.” I rang and told Nero. He killed himself laughing. True lies, all of them.

I think I'll read it again this weekend!

Eaten alive

Last week the wife and I decided to try something off the beaten track. We tried an experiment where we were fodder from some creatures called 'doctor fish' (garra rufa for the scientifically inclined) flown all the way from Turkey. The concept is quite simple - the fish are supposed to eat up dead skin, giving the person a natural derm-abrasion, and leaving behind only healthy skin. While one can get a full body treatment, we were only adventurous enough for a feet therapy session. Some pictures (not very clear since taken from a phone camera):

The biggest problem in the entire 20 minute experiment was keeping ourselves from laughing uncontrollably from all the tickling. The verdict - only good for experimenting, definitely nothing that dramatically improves the feet or your skin. Will I go again? No, unless I'm in a blue funk and need a lot of giggling to get me out of it!

'Black Swan' author talks sense

in this article from FT...
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Published: April 7 2009 20:02 Last updated: April 7 2009 20:02

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.
In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.

The writer is a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Intriguing

These creative advertising types certainly can be innovative.
Courtesy (of all places!!): marketbhavishya.com

How to become a millionaire in a few easy steps

Here it is finally - the secret of George Soros's $$$$$:
Market turning points are strongly correlated to the sales of backache medicine. Track sales of the latter, and you will get the perfect indicator for the former. Easy step to much moolah!!

If you dont believe me, hear it here from the man himself (courtesy: The Times London)
“It’s as if you’re a jungle animal, and you see another animal facing you. You have to make a decision: fight or flight? Your hair stands up and you growl and you decide, ‘Am I going to attack because I’m stronger or am I going to run away because otherwise he’s going to eat me?’ You are very tense. And that’s the tension that gives you the backache."

Foot in mouth

Equity markets across the world seem to be on steroids. Almost all of them have risen about 20% in the last 2 weeks. The US Dow Jones has just recorded its best 10 days since 1938. The Indian Nifty has risen 500 points from 2525 to 3025 in exactly 11 days. Is there something cooking? Are the bad times over, and will everything else be back to the good old days? I fear not (note that I am speaking specifically for the Indian markets). Reasons follow:

For one, I dont think the real economy has really bottomed out. Indian FY09 Q3 GDP growth was 5.3%, but looking at monthly statistics on exports, IIP or bank credit, it does not seem as if this is the end of economic deceleration. True, the markets discount everything around 6 months in advance, but it seems to me that we have not really suffered yet for the sins of our government (12%+ fiscal deficit!! a dubious record)

Secondly, 2 weeks ago, I distinctly recall multiple investment banks and brokerage firms (CLSA, Kotak, ML, Morgan Stanley, self styled 'experts' on CNBC TV18 etc etc) shouting from the rooftops about an imminent fall to 1800-2000 on the Nifty (ie a 20-25%) fall in the market. In 2 weeks, the world has not suddenly changed. The fact that these dudes are now saying the worst is over is perhaps the best indicator that its not

Thirdly, mature markets in the US and Europe are trading at lower valuations (many companies at bankruptcy valuations) than those in India. The governments there are inviting private investors to partake in the upsides while limiting the risk substantially (this is essentially the $1 trillion 'bad assets plan'). So there are better investing opportunities in mature markets, thus automatically limiting fund flows to emerging markets like India

Fourth, and perhaps most temporarily, there is a huge overhang of potentially disastrous electoral results in India very soon. Who wants to bet money on an uncertain outcome?

Predicting the markets' direction is akin to putting your foot in your mouth. For all these reasons, the markets may still run up substantially from here. But I'm not betting on it!

Top 5 careers

While on the road trip, at Pushkar I had an intriguing thought. What if I could choose any alternate career. What would I like doing best? Initial thoughts run to the following:

5. Travel writer - a no brainer. Travel all over the world (preferably luxury resorts :-) and write about the experience. Will need to guard against getting jaded with new places

4. Book cafe owner - chill out with lots of books and coffee, hopefully meet interesting people. Will need to guard against lack of physical activity and potential boredom

3. Trekking guide - beautiful scenery, good physique which will develop (hopefully!) with all the huffing and puffing. Will need to keep finding new routes

2. Professional footballer - the beautiful game, adulating (female :-) fans, tons of money. Will need to maintain fitness obsessively

1. Trader - never a dull moment, use of brain as well as emotion, potential big payoff. Need to have ample capital to start with

Would be good to hear other ideas!

A dangerous recipe

On a recent road trip, I learnt a deadly new way of knocking back vodka: vodka pops.
Recipe courtesy Kholu (aka Juicy Bytes):

1. Mix one peg of vodka with equal amount of lime flavoured areated drink (Mirinda Lime or Limca recommended) in a glass
2. Vacuum seal with palm of hand
3. Shake violently till mixture is frothy
4. Pop back immediately in single gulp
5. Repeat after 10 minutes

After 3 such pops, life becomes very beautiful. Emperical (personal) evidence says that upto 6 pops cause no grevious bodily injury.

Mark-to-market: necessary evil?

Your house is burning. It is causing destruction of value. Because of your burning house, neighbourhood houses are also burning. There is a lot of destruction of public property - telephone wires, electric poles, roads, water pipelines etc. etc. The local municipal fire tender is fighting the blaze, but is losing the battle. Then, in one fell swoop, the mayor of your town manages to solve the problem of value destruction. How? She mandates - the burning of a few buildings is no longer is classified as fire. No fire, no destruction of value. Simple!

This is of course an exaggerated example, but to me it seems fairly analogous to what the US Congress is trying to do by forcing the Securities Commission and the Accounting Board to change conservative rules for carrying the value of assets on the balance sheet. Agreed, mark-to-market accounting rules are causing banks to take massive write downs, therefore requiring equity infusions. But changing the rule just because it is no longer convenient seems to me to be a travesty of facts. As an investor, I would want to know exactly what value my assets currently have, if they were to be liquidated today. I should not be able to hide behind illiquid or opaque markets. Because if this loophole is created, there is no way of knowing where it will end. Who is to say that a few more Enrons / Satyams / Hexawares would not continue thriving? Today these rules are causing taxpayer funding of tottering institutions. But the absense of these very rules may not even allow the rot to show any symptoms. In the absense of symptoms, the patient (or the institution) could just roll over and die suddenly, with little warning.

The truth, however bitter, is infinitely more palatable than falsehood! I hope sense prevails all around and politicians do not create a bigger mess of the already humongous mess that is the credit crisis.

The ugly side of media

B-school placement season has just ended in India, and the media is full of ugly and inane stories on the fall in salaries on campus and the dramatic cut in the number of zillion dollar salaries. To me, this seems intrusive, misinformative and vouyeurism of the worst kind.
Firstly, there is something obscene in the media's obsession with salaries of freshly minted b-school grads. Speaking strictly from my experience, there is very little correlation between first campus jobs and eventual success in life. The placement process is so screwed up that the biggest factor in the decision making of a student is peer pressure and posturing. There is really no focus on area of interest, skills matching or and other long term parameter. I really think that b-schools should stop publicizing salacious details of pay packets, if only to stop the media's attention on short term and meaningless metrics of success.
Secondly, the poor students who are graduating this year are most likely under tremendous stress as it is - from family, friends, former colleagues and most of all their own expectations. Why gloat on their agony for this kind of stupid journalism? I just dont get it.

Chaman-e-bahar

My cute cousin (born and brought up in the US) primarily uses English as a medium of communication. On a recent visit to Hindi speaking relatives, she mentioned politely - "Aap ka chaman bahut accha hai". This had me in splits for quite some time. Technically, of course, she is absolutely right - literally translated, it means that your garden is very pretty. But having spent a substantial part of life in the hostel of an engineering college, I usually associate the word chaman with either 'ujda chaman' or 'chaman charlie' or the not-to-be-mentioned-on-a-family-blog 'chaman ch****a'.

There are quite a few Urdu words that are quite poetic and beautiful in their meaning (or even saying). 'Junoon' is one of my favourites. The English version (viz. passion) somehow just does not capture the madness or the obsession of junoon. Another quaint phrase is 'nosh farmayein' (try /sample it). One of the abiding memories I have of Ustad Bismillah Khan (on an interview on TV) was his use of 'Ama miyan', which somehow captured a lot of warmth and grace in it.

BTW - I did not know till some nifty searches on wikipedia that Urdu itself has its roots in the Turkish word 'Ordu', which means army encampment. The language started in the encampments off the Red Fort in Delhi c.1500 AD and was called Zabaan-e-Ordu (the language of the Urdu bazaar), soon to be shortened to just Urdu. Strange that something so poetic and charming has its origins in the violence of the military!

The Billion Perspective

With fiscal stimuli and bailout packages running into many hundred billions of dollars, the following perspective helps (courtesy Business Standard):

1) One billion seconds ago, it was 1959!
2) One billion minutes ago, Jesus Christ was alive!
3) One billion hours ago, humankind did not exist!

If you become a billionaire, and spend Rs. 50 every second of your life, and not earn anything on it at all, you will not run out of money for 50 years.

Amazing!