Friday, June 27, 2008

Screwed!!

A friend recently had a windfall and landed some good money. He (being a saving type) does not want to splurge it on consumption goods, but wants to use the corpus to ensure financial security later in life. He is a worried man!
He narrated his logic to me thus:
1) if he keeps the money as cash, inflation erodes its value very quickly
2) if he invests in stocks, going by his recent experiences, he could see the value of his windfall decline 30% in a week
3) the amount is not large enough to buy any real estate. Moreover, he does not want to take a loan and buy property in these times of rising interest rates
4) if he keeps it in a fixed deposit, negative real interest rates screw him
5) he would like a new car, but he thinks rising oil prices will make running costs prohibitive

Not being entirely sober at that time, I suggested he roll up the entire amount, and throw it 'on the toss of a coin' (as Kipling would have said, rather written) on crude oil futures. Alternately he could punt on a short position on the US dollar.
That is the only certain thing in these bedevilled times!!

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