Hilarious article in the Economic Times (trust the ToI group to find something titilating in the global recession)!
Also made me think - what a wonderful thing to be a researcher! And even more, a sexologist. I wonder what a sexologist does(Apart from researching such profound topics, that is)
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
A Painful Comparison
For me, today's joke of the day was this: our esteemed Finance Minister thinks all is hunky dory with the Indian economy, and we will grow at 9% next year. This very same gentleman was, till a few days ago, parrotting the phrase that Indian GDP will grow at 8%+ in FY09. And we all know just how unlikely that is.
The small matter that his boss, the Prime Minister, publicly keeps saying that growth would be in the range of 7%-7.5% in FY09 did not deter him in the least. Nor the fact that industrial growth in the 1st half of FY09 has been HALF that of last year. Or that exports have actually DECLINED year on year in October, and this trend is not likely to change anytime soon. Or that tax collections have DIPPED from last year in October. Someone should explain to the esteemed Finance Minister of India that talking does not equal doing. Or that wasted opportunities / regressive policies DO come back to haunt the nation (but who cares - its the next government's problem, I can hear the FM smirk!!)
I cannot help but compare the painfully slow response of our policymakers to worldwide recession to that of US policymakers. The US Fed had been easing liquidity long before the current liquidity crunch, they had approved a fiscal stimulus before recession became a reality (the point is not that these measures were not enough - the point is that someone was trying to be ahead of the curve and trying to keep on top of things). Contrast that with our country where the FM behaves like an ostrich and the government takes action (or takes NO action) after the fact. Or compare this with China where policymakers used good times to build a vast treasure chest of cash, which they will now deploy for building more infrastructure (they are already much ahead of India in this aspect, and it certainly looks like they will get even further ahead).
Our government has frittered away strong tax collections of the last 5 years to a) increase wasteful subsidies - the farm loan waiver? b) increase wasteful expenditure - the Employment Guarantee Scheme? c) Implement regressive policies - administered pricing of petrol / cement / steel / etc etc. As a result, we are running a fiscal deficit close to 8% of GDP, and have been caught out when the times are turning bad. Our central bank actually INCREASED interest rates as recently as July, saying that growth is a given, and inflation must be contained.
Looks like our policymakers are indulging in rear-view driving. Painful!!
The small matter that his boss, the Prime Minister, publicly keeps saying that growth would be in the range of 7%-7.5% in FY09 did not deter him in the least. Nor the fact that industrial growth in the 1st half of FY09 has been HALF that of last year. Or that exports have actually DECLINED year on year in October, and this trend is not likely to change anytime soon. Or that tax collections have DIPPED from last year in October. Someone should explain to the esteemed Finance Minister of India that talking does not equal doing. Or that wasted opportunities / regressive policies DO come back to haunt the nation (but who cares - its the next government's problem, I can hear the FM smirk!!)
I cannot help but compare the painfully slow response of our policymakers to worldwide recession to that of US policymakers. The US Fed had been easing liquidity long before the current liquidity crunch, they had approved a fiscal stimulus before recession became a reality (the point is not that these measures were not enough - the point is that someone was trying to be ahead of the curve and trying to keep on top of things). Contrast that with our country where the FM behaves like an ostrich and the government takes action (or takes NO action) after the fact. Or compare this with China where policymakers used good times to build a vast treasure chest of cash, which they will now deploy for building more infrastructure (they are already much ahead of India in this aspect, and it certainly looks like they will get even further ahead).
Our government has frittered away strong tax collections of the last 5 years to a) increase wasteful subsidies - the farm loan waiver? b) increase wasteful expenditure - the Employment Guarantee Scheme? c) Implement regressive policies - administered pricing of petrol / cement / steel / etc etc. As a result, we are running a fiscal deficit close to 8% of GDP, and have been caught out when the times are turning bad. Our central bank actually INCREASED interest rates as recently as July, saying that growth is a given, and inflation must be contained.
Looks like our policymakers are indulging in rear-view driving. Painful!!
Monday, November 10, 2008
Catch 22
I knew I was truly affected by the fear in the capital markets when I found myself questioning the need for this!! Or this!!
ICICI Bank offering 11-12% yields on 1-2.5 year fixed deposits? Is their credit risk so high, that they are offering higher returns to compensate? Poor ICICI Bank - they are damned if they do, and damned if they dont!
Reminds me of Catch 22: A pilot could be excused from a suicide bombing mission only on grounds of unsound mind. However, the fact that the pilot wanted to be excused from the suicide mission proved that he could NOT be of unsound mind!! Joseph Heller lives on! (though I thought Closing Time - the sequel to Catch 22, was vastly inferior)
ICICI Bank offering 11-12% yields on 1-2.5 year fixed deposits? Is their credit risk so high, that they are offering higher returns to compensate? Poor ICICI Bank - they are damned if they do, and damned if they dont!
Reminds me of Catch 22: A pilot could be excused from a suicide bombing mission only on grounds of unsound mind. However, the fact that the pilot wanted to be excused from the suicide mission proved that he could NOT be of unsound mind!! Joseph Heller lives on! (though I thought Closing Time - the sequel to Catch 22, was vastly inferior)
Monday, November 03, 2008
Birds of a feather...
PS: Click on pictures to enlarge and make out details better!
The wife and I decided to give vent to the nature-loving beings hidden within each of us, and took off on a weekend trip to the Bharatpur bird sanctuary one cool October Saturday. The 190km drive from Delhi was a breeze, with the NH2 allowing us to cruise along at >100kmph quite easily.
The Bharatpur bird sanctuary is spread over an area of 29 sq km, most of it marshland. For the past 5 years, little rain had almost dried the place up, with the result that most migratory birds had given the place a miss, but good rain in June this year ensured a record turnout from our feathered friends (some of them flying in all the way from Egypt!). Aug-Oct is usually peak season for Indian birds in Bharatpur, and Oct-Jan for foreign birds, so October was witness to a happy confluence of both types.
We had booked ourselves into the ITDC resort within the sanctuary, and it was quite good, reasonable, clean and with good service. We set off at 6am sharp, armed somewhat inadequately with a toy binoculars that the wife had dug out from her childhood treasures, but with hardy cameras. One can walk, bike, boat or take an electric car within the sanctuary.
We saw a plethora of very very pretty birds (some of which can be seen in the photos here - check out captions for description). My personal favourites were the woodpecker (persistent and amazingly strong for its size), the kingfisher (extremely colorful and beautiful), the sarus crane (for its lifelong fidelity to its partner), the snake bird (for being an expert underwater swimmer), and the spotted owl (for being huge - over 4 feet large - and extremely owlish :-)
At the end of the visit, which took all of 2 days from beginning to end, we determined that we should do this much more often!
The wife and I decided to give vent to the nature-loving beings hidden within each of us, and took off on a weekend trip to the Bharatpur bird sanctuary one cool October Saturday. The 190km drive from Delhi was a breeze, with the NH2 allowing us to cruise along at >100kmph quite easily.
The Bharatpur bird sanctuary is spread over an area of 29 sq km, most of it marshland. For the past 5 years, little rain had almost dried the place up, with the result that most migratory birds had given the place a miss, but good rain in June this year ensured a record turnout from our feathered friends (some of them flying in all the way from Egypt!). Aug-Oct is usually peak season for Indian birds in Bharatpur, and Oct-Jan for foreign birds, so October was witness to a happy confluence of both types.
We had booked ourselves into the ITDC resort within the sanctuary, and it was quite good, reasonable, clean and with good service. We set off at 6am sharp, armed somewhat inadequately with a toy binoculars that the wife had dug out from her childhood treasures, but with hardy cameras. One can walk, bike, boat or take an electric car within the sanctuary.
We saw a plethora of very very pretty birds (some of which can be seen in the photos here - check out captions for description). My personal favourites were the woodpecker (persistent and amazingly strong for its size), the kingfisher (extremely colorful and beautiful), the sarus crane (for its lifelong fidelity to its partner), the snake bird (for being an expert underwater swimmer), and the spotted owl (for being huge - over 4 feet large - and extremely owlish :-)
At the end of the visit, which took all of 2 days from beginning to end, we determined that we should do this much more often!
Friday, October 24, 2008
Revision
I think my earlier post today was written in a bit of anger at the RBI's (in)actions. Later events have caused me to revise that opinion.
As we speak, trading in the Dow Jones and S&P futures has been halted since they have fallen to the maximum permittable limit. European markets are down by 9-10% (only). Asian markets have closed down 9-12%. The Indian Nifty 50 index has closed down 14%. Why? Because everywhere, everyone thinks the world economy is going into recession. Not so the esteemed RBI.
So now, in more measured tones, I can blandly state the following - the Indian Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India are crazy lunatics (I wish to use stronger words but propriety prevents me from saying f***ing idiots since this is, after all, a family blog :-)).
As we speak, trading in the Dow Jones and S&P futures has been halted since they have fallen to the maximum permittable limit. European markets are down by 9-10% (only). Asian markets have closed down 9-12%. The Indian Nifty 50 index has closed down 14%. Why? Because everywhere, everyone thinks the world economy is going into recession. Not so the esteemed RBI.
So now, in more measured tones, I can blandly state the following - the Indian Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India are crazy lunatics (I wish to use stronger words but propriety prevents me from saying f***ing idiots since this is, after all, a family blog :-)).
Wake up and smell the ...
Here is a quick quiz:
True or False?
True or False?
- The world is spinning rapidly into a period of deep recession
- Millions of jobs will be lost, in developed and developing economies
- Commodity prices (oil, metals, foodgrains) have crashed and are only going further south
- Consumption is declining (will decline even more) as people have less disposable incomes to spend
- India is not immune to the global slowdown (as seen by the 1.3% growth in the Index of Industrial Production for August) and is going to feel the shocks of a slowdown. Already Q2 results have been terrible and things are going to get worse before they get better.
If you answered True to any / all of the above questions, you are in disagreement with the esteemed Reserve Bank of India. In its mid year policy review, the honorable central bank has kept key rates unchanged (repo rate at 8%, CRR at 6.5%, reverse repo rate at 6%). It has not even cut the SLR. It thinks inflation will be at 7% for the year and GDP growth rate will be 8% (no, this is not a typo). At a time when Keynesian stimulus is the order of the day (this is not only my opinion, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Economics Prize winner for 2008 thinks so too), our central bankers prefer to be dyed-in-the-wool monetarists!
This attitude reminds me of the Indian economy in 1994-95 when similar bull-headedness (or should I call it bear-headedness?) in terms of interest rates cost India a full 4 years of lost growth. Anyone listening to history at the RBI?
One of you or the honourable RBI is smoking dope, and I dont think it is you!! By the time these esteemed gentlemen wake up and smell the shit, the economy will be in a shambles, credit growth will have crashed and investments would have been totally squeezed out of the system. But hey! who cares?? It will be time for a new election...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Alarming analysis
Something is wrong with my blog posts these days. The quantity is still chugging along, but something seems to be an issue with the quality. The following analysis says it all:
From this graph I can see that (before this post):
From this graph I can see that (before this post):- On average, I have posted exactly 5 entries per month in calendar year 2008
- Each of the 50 posts have received exactly 2.0 comments per post
- The quality of the blog (comments per post - right hand axis - used as proxy) has been steadily declining - from a high of almost 5 comments per post in April (with one particular post gathering a relatively massive 14 comments!), the number has come down to a pathetic 1 comment in 5 posts of October. (And if I discount comments from family, this number would total up to zilch!!)
Clearly I am not writing about the right things (or in the right way). Time to put on the thinking cap!!
Unheralded triumph
In the hoopla about India handing out Australia a decisive test loss, popular media almost missed on a greater achievement - Vishwanathan Anand has handed out Vladimir Kramnik 3 defeats in 6 games (out of a total possible of 12) in the playoff for the World Chess Championship.
Amazing feat, given that chess is truly a global sport, played in almost all countries in the world, and that this would be the 3rd time that Anand would be winning the global crown! Anand's win is testimony to the tremendous practice and impeccable preparation he has made for the match. After having defeated Kramnik in the 3rd game, it was always going to be easier for Anand (since Kramnik would have to keep trying to take risks to win a game), but the domination that Anand has shown over his rival has been unprecedented.
More power to Vishwanathan Anand!!
Read all about the exciting game 6 here (courtesy rediff)
Amazing feat, given that chess is truly a global sport, played in almost all countries in the world, and that this would be the 3rd time that Anand would be winning the global crown! Anand's win is testimony to the tremendous practice and impeccable preparation he has made for the match. After having defeated Kramnik in the 3rd game, it was always going to be easier for Anand (since Kramnik would have to keep trying to take risks to win a game), but the domination that Anand has shown over his rival has been unprecedented.
More power to Vishwanathan Anand!!
Read all about the exciting game 6 here (courtesy rediff)
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Time to go?
I feel a little embarrassed these days every time India plays test cricket. Not because of India winning or losing, but because of the excrutiating focus on the performance of Messrs. Dravid, Ganguly, Tendulkar, Laxman and Kumble. Every failure is dissed and taken apart, while successes (increasingly rare, it must be said!) are overlooked.
These gentlemen have served their country long and with dignity, passion and purpose. I am sure they feel the pain of failure much more than the contemptible 'critic' who has probably not enough skill to throw a cricket ball 5 feet. Why then do they still face the music?
Is it possible that their love for the game makes them want to keep playing on? I only need to look at Adam Gilchrist or Shane Warne, who retired at the top of their game. Did they not love cricket? Or is it their belief that they are best suited to help India win. I do not think this notion can be supported by facts. At least in the last few years, I think India has won whenever it has been ready to scrap it out, with aggressive, unafraid young blood. Whether the T20 World Cup, the One Day series in Australia and Sri Lanka, the architects of India's wins have not been these gentlemen.
Noting another day of test capitulation to Australia by these gents today, I think the time has come for them to make up their minds. I do not mind India losing to Australia or Sri Lanka with an inexperienced team. But I am not ready for it to lose with these towering talents playing. It is time for them to go gracefully.
Return of the plodder
The financial catastrophe that is engulfing us will benefit me (and perhaps the world) in some ways.
For one, it brings back into focus the value of 'real' things. Real assets vs. ephemeral paper profits, 'real' work vs. jugglery on an excel sheet, 'real' hard work vs. quick and easy money in a few blockbuster years. Think of it, my parents' generation worked long and hard years to achieve something in life. They were loyal to their employers, sincere in their work and willing to postpone immediate gratification for the benefit of their children. They had character. What makes me deserving of much more pelf than they did at my age? Certainly not maturity, not character and not ability.
For another, it will mark the return of sanity to huge discrepancies in compensation. What does a financial services employee do that is so important and unique that she gets paid 100x the normal Jane in equally (perhaps more) important functions like teaching, administration or manufacturing? Other than spending 23 hours a day, 6 days a week in office? In my humble opinion, not much. A bubble which was assuming gigantic proportions has been pricked.
Unfortunate that in the next few years a lot of people will pay for the mistakes of a few. People on the verge of retirement who are seeing their investments become worthless, ordinary taxpayers who will face higher tax regimes, ordinary producers who will see consumption drop, and ordinary consumers who will see inability to get leverage. But it will bring back into focus the basics that our parents taught us - save for a rainy day, work hard and do not worry about the fruit of your labour, live within your means. It will build 'real' character, not dollar filled notions of self worth.
It will bring back into focus the worth of the plodder. I look forward to learning my lessons!
Friday, October 10, 2008
In Bruges
Foreword: I seem to be blogging only about movies these days. Perhaps it shows my world view is getting narrow, or that I am not thinking enough!! (Note to self: no more movie reviews for the next 10 posts!)
A quick trip to the US saw me indulge in my favourite activity - watching lots of movies on the plane. While 'The Happening' (M Night Shyamalan's latest) was eerie, 'Wanted' (Angelina Jolie's take on the Matrix) a total waste of time, and 'What Happens in Vegas' (the movie with the highest paid amount to any actor - Cameron Diaz got $$$$50 million for this movie!!) entirely predictable and stupid, there was one movie that made the journey worthwhile. 'In Bruges' (pronounced Bruge) is a fantastic movie.
A dark comedy, it is in the same genre as 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels' and 'Snatch'. Stupendous acting from Colin Farell and Ralph Fiennes, a haunting background score, stupendously beautiful settings, a twisted plot and extremely quirky dialogue mark the high points of the movie. Highly recommended!!
It made me want to holiday in Bruges and soak in the surroundings.
A quick trip to the US saw me indulge in my favourite activity - watching lots of movies on the plane. While 'The Happening' (M Night Shyamalan's latest) was eerie, 'Wanted' (Angelina Jolie's take on the Matrix) a total waste of time, and 'What Happens in Vegas' (the movie with the highest paid amount to any actor - Cameron Diaz got $$$$50 million for this movie!!) entirely predictable and stupid, there was one movie that made the journey worthwhile. 'In Bruges' (pronounced Bruge) is a fantastic movie.
A dark comedy, it is in the same genre as 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels' and 'Snatch'. Stupendous acting from Colin Farell and Ralph Fiennes, a haunting background score, stupendously beautiful settings, a twisted plot and extremely quirky dialogue mark the high points of the movie. Highly recommended!!
It made me want to holiday in Bruges and soak in the surroundings.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
A Wednesday to remember
A Wednesday (despite the strange name) is a movie that blew me away. Seldom have I seen a real Bollywood thriller, but this one certainly qualifies as one. An extremely taut screenplay, reality dripping from most situations, with nary a dialogue or scene wasted, and powerful performances from almost all characters (Anupam Kher and Jimmy Shergill should win some awards for this movie, per me) make the movie a pleasure to watch. Watching the movie on my parents' home theatre system, with a nice cold beer, I was actually anxious to find out what happens next. Although the climax is artificially convenient, it makes one think and wish - what if? Highly recommended!
I think movies like this one (low budget, no unnecessary song and dances, author backed characters and strong scripts) herald a new wave of good Indian cinema. Aamir (reviewed earlier, somewhat gushingly :-) and A Wednesday, both coincidentally made by SpotBoy Films (UTV's low budget cinema division) make me lick my chops in anticipation of more of the good stuff.
I think movies like this one (low budget, no unnecessary song and dances, author backed characters and strong scripts) herald a new wave of good Indian cinema. Aamir (reviewed earlier, somewhat gushingly :-) and A Wednesday, both coincidentally made by SpotBoy Films (UTV's low budget cinema division) make me lick my chops in anticipation of more of the good stuff.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Irony
As mentioned earlier, I quite enjoyed Rock On, the movie. This was primarily because of its songs. In a smart move, the movie ended (just before the credits) with an exhortation to the lines of 'Don't download the music, buy the CD'. This was, in my humble opinion, a spectacular marketing stunt. I was just making a mental reminder to myself to get the songs, and I determined then and there that I would buy the music instead of filch it off the internet.
Thus began my travails. Most of my music listening happens in the car, as I drive. I have only a cassette player / FM stereo system installed, so buying the CD was not really warranted. I have searched, so far, in no less that 4 music stores - and have not found the CD, let alone a cassette. The wife has tried obtaining the music too, unfortunately with the same fate. Dont know if it is luck or poor distribution on the part of Big Music (the company that bought the music rights of the movie)
I have since (shamefully, I must confess) downloaded the songs from the internet, and the wife has burnt a CD which she keeps in her car (she has a magnificent 10 CD changer there). Yet I am condemned to scour the FM channels for the songs of Rock On. I remain hopeful though!!
Thus began my travails. Most of my music listening happens in the car, as I drive. I have only a cassette player / FM stereo system installed, so buying the CD was not really warranted. I have searched, so far, in no less that 4 music stores - and have not found the CD, let alone a cassette. The wife has tried obtaining the music too, unfortunately with the same fate. Dont know if it is luck or poor distribution on the part of Big Music (the company that bought the music rights of the movie)
I have since (shamefully, I must confess) downloaded the songs from the internet, and the wife has burnt a CD which she keeps in her car (she has a magnificent 10 CD changer there). Yet I am condemned to scour the FM channels for the songs of Rock On. I remain hopeful though!!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
From the lair of Liar's Poker
This blog usually carries the (often opinionated and usually incorrect) views of the author. However, sometimes there are articles that capture succintly the essense of what the author wishes to communicate. One such article is this one, written by Michael Lewis (author of Liar's Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball and other books).
Highly recommended! And good for a laugh today.
Highly recommended! And good for a laugh today.
Monday, September 22, 2008
History in our midst
This weekend, the wife and I decided on impulse to soak in a bit of the culture that surrounds us, which we always overlook. So we stopped by the 700 year old Tughlaqabad fort right in the middle of the city. And were amply rewarded for our efforts. The pictures (unfortunately taken only from a camera phone) tell a much more eloquent tale:
The fort was built by Ghiyasuddin Tughlaq in AD 1321. At that time vast and powerful, it encompassed an entire city within it, including water tanks, palaces, and the commoners' dwellings. The tomb of Ghiyasuddin, his wife and son - the (in) famous Mohammed bin Tughlaq - still lie in the fort in an exquisitely beautiful marble domed mausolem that is surprisingly very well maintained. It truly is an 'oasis of peace'. Highly recommended to those in / around Delhi
The fort was built by Ghiyasuddin Tughlaq in AD 1321. At that time vast and powerful, it encompassed an entire city within it, including water tanks, palaces, and the commoners' dwellings. The tomb of Ghiyasuddin, his wife and son - the (in) famous Mohammed bin Tughlaq - still lie in the fort in an exquisitely beautiful marble domed mausolem that is surprisingly very well maintained. It truly is an 'oasis of peace'. Highly recommended to those in / around Delhi
Sunday, September 21, 2008
The end of capitalism?
One aspect of the much analysed cataclysm in the financial markets that bothers me is the implicit admission by the US administration that capitalism is dead. When the times are good, the capitalist makes money. When the times are bad, the public bails out the capitalist with a mega size cheque. Ok, this is an extreme statement. The public is buying the junk that is killing the capitalist. Actually the public is doing it so that 'markets can function'. Well. Hello. As per me, this is also part of capitalism - creative destruction needs to happen. It must not be stopped.
Per me, some of the consequences of the US administration's actions will last a lifetime - a) the world has seen the birth of the largest market manipulator ever - the US government. Ban short sales. Pour in the billions. Go after sellers. Where was this concern when firms were levering themselves up 30 times? (I kid you not - Lehman had $600 billion of debt, and $26 billion of equity!!). I wish I could get the same treatment - I will lever my meagre networth 30 times, make money when I can, and if I lose it all, I will look forward to Uncle Sam to capitalise me. What this tells every speculator is that everyone loves a rising market. So go ahead and plunge!!
b) who ultimately pays for this mess? Partly, the US taxpayer - he gets taxed more so that the US can fund its GIGANTIC fiscal deficit. But ultimately, 'Helicopter' Ben can just print more US dollars to bridge any gap between revenue and expense. This depreciates the dollar, screws exporters in (for example) India, spikes oil (and other commodity) prices, fuelling global inflation, so again screws India, and reduces the value of Asia's massive dollar reserve holdings (screwing, yet again, good old India).
I still think that the market will win out in the long term - such market manipulations will postpone the inevitable in the short run, but in the long run we will still see the necessary de-levering required to restore balance to the markets. But in the long run, we are all dead. So let us leave these minor problems for our children.
Per me, some of the consequences of the US administration's actions will last a lifetime - a) the world has seen the birth of the largest market manipulator ever - the US government. Ban short sales. Pour in the billions. Go after sellers. Where was this concern when firms were levering themselves up 30 times? (I kid you not - Lehman had $600 billion of debt, and $26 billion of equity!!). I wish I could get the same treatment - I will lever my meagre networth 30 times, make money when I can, and if I lose it all, I will look forward to Uncle Sam to capitalise me. What this tells every speculator is that everyone loves a rising market. So go ahead and plunge!!
b) who ultimately pays for this mess? Partly, the US taxpayer - he gets taxed more so that the US can fund its GIGANTIC fiscal deficit. But ultimately, 'Helicopter' Ben can just print more US dollars to bridge any gap between revenue and expense. This depreciates the dollar, screws exporters in (for example) India, spikes oil (and other commodity) prices, fuelling global inflation, so again screws India, and reduces the value of Asia's massive dollar reserve holdings (screwing, yet again, good old India).
I still think that the market will win out in the long term - such market manipulations will postpone the inevitable in the short run, but in the long run we will still see the necessary de-levering required to restore balance to the markets. But in the long run, we are all dead. So let us leave these minor problems for our children.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Bitter medicine
I wrote about the need for character in these troubled times, and hours later 'Helicopter' Ben obliged (would love to claim some credit for it!!). The US Fed has (rightly and bravely, in my humble opinion) ignored the 80% probability of a 25 bips rate cut that bond traders were betting on, and kept rates unchanged. While this probably means more pain for beleagured over-leveraged entities (like AIG?), it is good for the markets in the long run.
If I remember right, this (and the decision to let Lehman sink) is the first time that the Fed has signaled that it is walking away from bailing out failing institutions using taxpayer's money. This is good since it removes the obstacles from the forces of capitalism's 'creative destruction' - weaker firms will fail, painful de-leveraging will occur, and the business cycle will continue. Certainly this means more pain in the short term, but the writing on the wall is loud and clear - if managements of financial firms suffer from the same hubris or lethargy in dumping toxic assets / raising capital that Lehman did, then they too will suffer. This is good because it will prevent the buildup of insanely easy credit the next time around. Prevent? Maybe not - but it certainly should make a comeback more difficult.
At the time of writing this, the Dow Jones index has greeted the fed announcement with a knee-jerk 100 point drop. Looks like the behavior of a sulky child to me.
If I remember right, this (and the decision to let Lehman sink) is the first time that the Fed has signaled that it is walking away from bailing out failing institutions using taxpayer's money. This is good since it removes the obstacles from the forces of capitalism's 'creative destruction' - weaker firms will fail, painful de-leveraging will occur, and the business cycle will continue. Certainly this means more pain in the short term, but the writing on the wall is loud and clear - if managements of financial firms suffer from the same hubris or lethargy in dumping toxic assets / raising capital that Lehman did, then they too will suffer. This is good because it will prevent the buildup of insanely easy credit the next time around. Prevent? Maybe not - but it certainly should make a comeback more difficult.
At the time of writing this, the Dow Jones index has greeted the fed announcement with a knee-jerk 100 point drop. Looks like the behavior of a sulky child to me.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Crisis and opportunity
By most parameters, we are bang in the middle of tough times. Bombs explode at will in our metro cities and kill and maim innocents every few months. Fear stalks every move, even an innocent stroll in a busy market. Two of the top 4 investment banks in the US (and most B School students' employers of choice) are history overnight. A lot of friends / colleagues / batchmates are out of jobs and the outlook looks bleak for a lot more. Cassandras are calling it the beginning of another worldwide great depression.
One cliche I have always heard is that the Chinese symbol for crisis is made of 2 parts - one signifying danger and the other opportunity. While current times do seem like they are loaded with danger, it seems very difficult to find the opportunity anywhere.
To find and exploit opportunities needs character. Where will we find character?
We cannot look for it in the government in India, which has tried to stem the scourge of terrorism but has not been very successful. We certainly cannot look for it in the home minister, who keeps parroting inane homilies every time there are lives taken. We cannot look for character in the shenanigans of the US Treasury or 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke, who have tried to bail out falling giants, but are finding the going very tough.
That leaves us. All of us, Indian or otherwise, citizen or police, consumer or producer, have to show character and last out these tough times. Because, like all things natural, times will change, and the situation will improve. It is a question of riding the storm out.
One cliche I have always heard is that the Chinese symbol for crisis is made of 2 parts - one signifying danger and the other opportunity. While current times do seem like they are loaded with danger, it seems very difficult to find the opportunity anywhere.
To find and exploit opportunities needs character. Where will we find character?
We cannot look for it in the government in India, which has tried to stem the scourge of terrorism but has not been very successful. We certainly cannot look for it in the home minister, who keeps parroting inane homilies every time there are lives taken. We cannot look for character in the shenanigans of the US Treasury or 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke, who have tried to bail out falling giants, but are finding the going very tough.
That leaves us. All of us, Indian or otherwise, citizen or police, consumer or producer, have to show character and last out these tough times. Because, like all things natural, times will change, and the situation will improve. It is a question of riding the storm out.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Aargh!!! Not another...
Another day, another irritant...
In a nutshell, the issue is thus: India is suffering from a major power shortage crisis. The only way out of this crisis is more power generation. The government has tried (for 61 years now) and has realized that it cannot build generation capacity fast enough. Enter private power producers. These guys will put at RISK (this is a term that ALL bureaucrats should be drilled with - in fact, there should be a separate section in the IAS exam on risk and reward) millions and millions of dollars, and produce electricity. They will try to lock in long term offtake contracts that gives them adequate return for the risk they are taking with their millions. Electricity cannot be stored - if not used, it goes waste. For this reason, they keep a small percentage of power uncommitted so that they can sell it in the spot market to overcome any sudden requirements. For this, there is a market mechanism to determine rates that these producers get - it is a simple auction on an electricity exchange - the buyer sees prices, and decides if he wants to buy (if so how much) or no.
Enter Mr. Bureaucrat. He is all-knowing and all-powerful. He thinks he is smarter than the market. He is in addition, a bleeding heart. He says - from now, you cannot charge more than Rs. x per unit. He justifies it thus - “How can an MPP developer sell power at Rs8 per unit while it is only costing him Rs2 to generate" The learned gentleman does not realize that there is a risk that someone is taking that needs a reward. In any case, how does he justify the cap of Rs 6 per unit?? So he is saying - you can make 3 times your money, not 4 times. I am the arbiter and judge of this, and not the market. This is because I am smarter and wiser than the market.
Is this bureaucrat going to guarantee offtake? What if there is no demand for power, or no transmission capacity at a particular time from the power plant to the user? Then the producer makes electricity for Rs 2 a unit, and cannot sell it. So the money goes waste. Will this generous gentleman then assure offtake?
The net result - government intervention in pricing will kill private investments in power generation or power trading. India will continue to be condemned to live the life that its bureaucrats thinks she deserves.
It would be comic if it were not so pathetic.
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