Prescription for an epiphany

1) Go for a picture perfect holiday to Gulmarg (with lots of snow everywhere) with great friends
2) Return to a precious few days of holidays still left
3) Sit in glorious sunshine
4) Down a (large) can of beer
5) Read a delightful book

Realization soon dawns that god is in his heaven, and all's right with the world!!

6) Spread the word (through your mobile device) without leaving the sunshine

Vindication

Ratings agencies these days are not credible at all. Still, it feels good to be vindicated!
Check out this and this
And now I quote:
NEW DELHI: Blaming RBI's earlier tight monetary policy for contraction in India's industrial growth, Moody's on Friday said deceleration in
manufacturing output is a concern for overall economic growth. "Despite global market turmoil, India's central bank continued to tighten monetary policy until July...the moderation in demand is a result of the tight monetary policy settings in the first nine months," said Moody's Economy.com, a subsidiary of Moody's group. Pointing out that loosening cycle of monetary policy by RBI began only in October, Moody's said, it might not have led to an immediate rebound in domestic consumption. "As such, manufacturing orders from the domestic sector likely remained modest in November and December," it said. However, the RBI had yesterday stated that monetary measures taken by it were "appropriate". Industrial growth turned negative in October for the first time in 15 years, as manufacturing, which comprises around 80 per cent of the industry, shrank to 1.2 per cent growth in October from a whopping 13.8 per cent a year ago.

Query

Enough has been written and said about the events of last week in Mumbai. I have only one bit to add - something that puzzles me quite often.

If India thinks most of the recent terrorist activities on its soil have been directed by Dawood Ibrahim from his location in Karachi, why does it not assassinate the guy? What will it take - a focussed, small contingent, similar to a rapid strike force. A lot of other countries armies have such targetted armies (heck, even the inhuman terrorists did). Kill him. Whose permission are we waiting for?

Frankly, I feel embarrassed every time our PM gets on national TV and bleats about 'Pakistan's complicity' or Dawood Ibrahim's hand in 'dastardly acts'. Perhaps he can learn a thing or two from George 'Dubya' Bush - never mind all the fun everyone likes to make of him, he was able to ensure that there was no terrorist strike on the US since September 11, 2001.

We can choose to continue living (actually dying) like we are, or we can do something about it.

Teji ma time nathi, mandi ma mood nathi

Hilarious article in the Economic Times (trust the ToI group to find something titilating in the global recession)!

Also made me think - what a wonderful thing to be a researcher! And even more, a sexologist. I wonder what a sexologist does(Apart from researching such profound topics, that is)

A Painful Comparison

For me, today's joke of the day was this: our esteemed Finance Minister thinks all is hunky dory with the Indian economy, and we will grow at 9% next year. This very same gentleman was, till a few days ago, parrotting the phrase that Indian GDP will grow at 8%+ in FY09. And we all know just how unlikely that is.

The small matter that his boss, the Prime Minister, publicly keeps saying that growth would be in the range of 7%-7.5% in FY09 did not deter him in the least. Nor the fact that industrial growth in the 1st half of FY09 has been HALF that of last year. Or that exports have actually DECLINED year on year in October, and this trend is not likely to change anytime soon. Or that tax collections have DIPPED from last year in October. Someone should explain to the esteemed Finance Minister of India that talking does not equal doing. Or that wasted opportunities / regressive policies DO come back to haunt the nation (but who cares - its the next government's problem, I can hear the FM smirk!!)

I cannot help but compare the painfully slow response of our policymakers to worldwide recession to that of US policymakers. The US Fed had been easing liquidity long before the current liquidity crunch, they had approved a fiscal stimulus before recession became a reality (the point is not that these measures were not enough - the point is that someone was trying to be ahead of the curve and trying to keep on top of things). Contrast that with our country where the FM behaves like an ostrich and the government takes action (or takes NO action) after the fact. Or compare this with China where policymakers used good times to build a vast treasure chest of cash, which they will now deploy for building more infrastructure (they are already much ahead of India in this aspect, and it certainly looks like they will get even further ahead).

Our government has frittered away strong tax collections of the last 5 years to a) increase wasteful subsidies - the farm loan waiver? b) increase wasteful expenditure - the Employment Guarantee Scheme? c) Implement regressive policies - administered pricing of petrol / cement / steel / etc etc. As a result, we are running a fiscal deficit close to 8% of GDP, and have been caught out when the times are turning bad. Our central bank actually INCREASED interest rates as recently as July, saying that growth is a given, and inflation must be contained.

Looks like our policymakers are indulging in rear-view driving. Painful!!

Catch 22

I knew I was truly affected by the fear in the capital markets when I found myself questioning the need for this!! Or this!!

ICICI Bank offering 11-12% yields on 1-2.5 year fixed deposits? Is their credit risk so high, that they are offering higher returns to compensate? Poor ICICI Bank - they are damned if they do, and damned if they dont!

Reminds me of Catch 22: A pilot could be excused from a suicide bombing mission only on grounds of unsound mind. However, the fact that the pilot wanted to be excused from the suicide mission proved that he could NOT be of unsound mind!! Joseph Heller lives on! (though I thought Closing Time - the sequel to Catch 22, was vastly inferior)

Birds of a feather...

PS: Click on pictures to enlarge and make out details better!

The wife and I decided to give vent to the nature-loving beings hidden within each of us, and took off on a weekend trip to the Bharatpur bird sanctuary one cool October Saturday. The 190km drive from Delhi was a breeze, with the NH2 allowing us to cruise along at >100kmph quite easily.

The Bharatpur bird sanctuary is spread over an area of 29 sq km, most of it marshland. For the past 5 years, little rain had almost dried the place up, with the result that most migratory birds had given the place a miss, but good rain in June this year ensured a record turnout from our feathered friends (some of them flying in all the way from Egypt!). Aug-Oct is usually peak season for Indian birds in Bharatpur, and Oct-Jan for foreign birds, so October was witness to a happy confluence of both types.

We had booked ourselves into the ITDC resort within the sanctuary, and it was quite good, reasonable, clean and with good service. We set off at 6am sharp, armed somewhat inadequately with a toy binoculars that the wife had dug out from her childhood treasures, but with hardy cameras. One can walk, bike, boat or take an electric car within the sanctuary.

We saw a plethora of very very pretty birds (some of which can be seen in the photos here - check out captions for description). My personal favourites were the woodpecker (persistent and amazingly strong for its size), the kingfisher (extremely colorful and beautiful), the sarus crane (for its lifelong fidelity to its partner), the snake bird (for being an expert underwater swimmer), and the spotted owl (for being huge - over 4 feet large - and extremely owlish :-)

At the end of the visit, which took all of 2 days from beginning to end, we determined that we should do this much more often!

Revision

I think my earlier post today was written in a bit of anger at the RBI's (in)actions. Later events have caused me to revise that opinion.

As we speak, trading in the Dow Jones and S&P futures has been halted since they have fallen to the maximum permittable limit. European markets are down by 9-10% (only). Asian markets have closed down 9-12%. The Indian Nifty 50 index has closed down 14%. Why? Because everywhere, everyone thinks the world economy is going into recession. Not so the esteemed RBI.

So now, in more measured tones, I can blandly state the following - the Indian Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India are crazy lunatics (I wish to use stronger words but propriety prevents me from saying f***ing idiots since this is, after all, a family blog :-)).

Wake up and smell the ...

Here is a quick quiz:
True or False?

1. The world is spinning rapidly into a period of deep recession
2. Millions of jobs will be lost, in developed and developing economies
3. Commodity prices (oil, metals, foodgrains) have crashed and are only going further south
4. Consumption is declining (will decline even more) as people have less disposable incomes to spend
5. India is not immune to the global slowdown (as seen by the 1.3% growth in the Index of Industrial Production for August) and is going to feel the shocks of a slowdown. Already Q2 results have been terrible and things are going to get worse before they get better.

If you answered True to any / all of the above questions, you are in disagreement with the esteemed Reserve Bank of India. In its mid year policy review, the honorable central bank has kept key rates unchanged (repo rate at 8%, CRR at 6.5%, reverse repo rate at 6%). It has not even cut the SLR. It thinks inflation will be at 7% for the year and GDP growth rate will be 8% (no, this is not a typo). At a time when Keynesian stimulus is the order of the day (this is not only my opinion, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Economics Prize winner for 2008 thinks so too), our central bankers prefer to be dyed-in-the-wool monetarists!

This attitude reminds me of the Indian economy in 1994-95 when similar bull-headedness (or should I call it bear-headedness?) in terms of interest rates cost India a full 4 years of lost growth. Anyone listening to history at the RBI?

One of you or the honourable RBI is smoking dope, and I dont think it is you!! By the time these esteemed gentlemen wake up and smell the shit, the economy will be in a shambles, credit growth will have crashed and investments would have been totally squeezed out of the system. But hey! who cares?? It will be time for a new election...

Alarming analysis

Something is wrong with my blog posts these days. The quantity is still chugging along, but something seems to be an issue with the quality. The following analysis says it all:

From this graph I can see that (before this post):

1. On average, I have posted exactly 5 entries per month in calendar year 2008
2. Each of the 50 posts have received exactly 2.0 comments per post
3. The quality of the blog (comments per post - right hand axis - used as proxy) has been steadily declining - from a high of almost 5 comments per post in April (with one particular post gathering a relatively massive 14 comments!), the number has come down to a pathetic 1 comment in 5 posts of October. (And if I discount comments from family, this number would total up to zilch!!)
   

Clearly I am not writing about the right things (or in the right way). Time to put on the thinking cap!!

Unheralded triumph

In the hoopla about India handing out Australia a decisive test loss, popular media almost missed on a greater achievement - Vishwanathan Anand has handed out Vladimir Kramnik 3 defeats in 6 games (out of a total possible of 12) in the playoff for the World Chess Championship.

Amazing feat, given that chess is truly a global sport, played in almost all countries in the world, and that this would be the 3rd time that Anand would be winning the global crown! Anand's win is testimony to the tremendous practice and impeccable preparation he has made for the match. After having defeated Kramnik in the 3rd game, it was always going to be easier for Anand (since Kramnik would have to keep trying to take risks to win a game), but the domination that Anand has shown over his rival has been unprecedented.

More power to Vishwanathan Anand!!
Read all about the exciting game 6 here (courtesy rediff)

Time to go?

I feel a little embarrassed these days every time India plays test cricket. Not because of India winning or losing, but because of the excrutiating focus on the performance of Messrs. Dravid, Ganguly, Tendulkar, Laxman and Kumble. Every failure is dissed and taken apart, while successes (increasingly rare, it must be said!) are overlooked. 

These gentlemen have served their country long and with dignity, passion and purpose. I am sure they feel the pain of failure much more than the contemptible 'critic' who has probably not enough skill to throw a cricket ball 5 feet. Why then do they still face the music? 

Is it possible that their love for the game makes them want to keep playing on? I only need to look at Adam Gilchrist or Shane Warne, who retired at the top of their game. Did they not love cricket? Or is it their belief that they are best suited to help India win. I do not think this notion can be supported by facts. At least in the last few years, I think India has won whenever it has been ready to scrap it out, with aggressive, unafraid young blood. Whether the T20 World Cup, the One Day series in Australia and Sri Lanka, the architects of India's wins have not been these gentlemen. 

Noting another day of test capitulation to Australia by these gents today, I think the time has come for them to make up their minds. I do not mind India losing to Australia or Sri Lanka with an inexperienced team. But I am not ready for it to lose with these towering talents playing. It is time for them to go gracefully.

Return of the plodder

The financial catastrophe that is engulfing us will benefit me (and perhaps the world) in some ways. 

For one, it brings back into focus the value of 'real' things. Real assets vs. ephemeral paper profits, 'real' work vs. jugglery on an excel sheet, 'real' hard work vs. quick and easy money in a few blockbuster years. Think of it, my parents' generation worked long and hard years to achieve something in life. They were loyal to their employers, sincere in their work and willing to postpone immediate gratification for the benefit of their children. They had character. What makes me deserving of much more pelf than they did at my age? Certainly not maturity, not character and not ability. 

For another, it will mark the return of sanity to huge discrepancies in compensation. What does a financial services employee do that is so important and unique that she gets paid 100x the normal Jane in equally (perhaps more) important functions like teaching, administration or manufacturing? Other than spending 23 hours a day, 6 days a week in office? In my humble opinion, not much. A bubble which was assuming gigantic proportions has been pricked. 

Unfortunate that in the next few years a lot of people will pay for the mistakes of a few. People on the verge of retirement who are seeing their investments become worthless, ordinary taxpayers who will face higher tax regimes, ordinary producers who will see consumption drop, and ordinary consumers who will see inability to get leverage. But it will bring back into focus the basics that our parents taught us - save for a rainy day, work hard and do not worry about the fruit of your labour, live within your means. It will build 'real' character, not dollar filled notions of self worth.

It will bring back into focus the worth of the plodder. I look forward to learning my lessons!

In Bruges

Foreword: I seem to be blogging only about movies these days. Perhaps it shows my world view is getting narrow, or that I am not thinking enough!! (Note to self: no more movie reviews for the next 10 posts!)

A quick trip to the US saw me indulge in my favourite activity - watching lots of movies on the plane. While 'The Happening' (M Night Shyamalan's latest) was eerie, 'Wanted' (Angelina Jolie's take on the Matrix) a total waste of time, and 'What Happens in Vegas' (the movie with the highest paid amount to any actor - Cameron Diaz got $$$$50 million for this movie!!) entirely predictable and stupid, there was one movie that made the journey worthwhile. 'In Bruges' (pronounced Bruge) is a fantastic movie.

A dark comedy, it is in the same genre as 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels' and 'Snatch'. Stupendous acting from Colin Farell and Ralph Fiennes, a haunting background score, stupendously beautiful settings, a twisted plot and extremely quirky dialogue mark the high points of the movie. Highly recommended!!

It made me want to holiday in Bruges and soak in the surroundings.

A Wednesday to remember

A Wednesday (despite the strange name) is a movie that blew me away. Seldom have I seen a real Bollywood thriller, but this one certainly qualifies as one. An extremely taut screenplay, reality dripping from most situations, with nary a dialogue or scene wasted, and powerful performances from almost all characters (Anupam Kher and Jimmy Shergill should win some awards for this movie, per me) make the movie a pleasure to watch. Watching the movie on my parents' home theatre system, with a nice cold beer, I was actually anxious to find out what happens next. Although the climax is artificially convenient, it makes one think and wish - what if? Highly recommended!

I think movies like this one (low budget, no unnecessary song and dances, author backed characters and strong scripts) herald a new wave of good Indian cinema. Aamir (reviewed earlier, somewhat gushingly :-) and A Wednesday, both coincidentally made by SpotBoy Films (UTV's low budget cinema division) make me lick my chops in anticipation of more of the good stuff.

Irony

As mentioned earlier, I quite enjoyed Rock On, the movie. This was primarily because of its songs. In a smart move, the movie ended (just before the credits) with an exhortation to the lines of 'Don't download the music, buy the CD'. This was, in my humble opinion, a spectacular marketing stunt. I was just making a mental reminder to myself to get the songs, and I determined then and there that I would buy the music instead of filch it off the internet.

Thus began my travails. Most of my music listening happens in the car, as I drive. I have only a cassette player / FM stereo system installed, so buying the CD was not really warranted. I have searched, so far, in no less that 4 music stores - and have not found the CD, let alone a cassette. The wife has tried obtaining the music too, unfortunately with the same fate. Dont know if it is luck or poor distribution on the part of Big Music (the company that bought the music rights of the movie)

I have since (shamefully, I must confess) downloaded the songs from the internet, and the wife has burnt a CD which she keeps in her car (she has a magnificent 10 CD changer there). Yet I am condemned to scour the FM channels for the songs of Rock On. I remain hopeful though!!

From the lair of Liar's Poker

This blog usually carries the (often opinionated and usually incorrect) views of the author. However, sometimes there are articles that capture succintly the essense of what the author wishes to communicate. One such article is this one, written by Michael Lewis (author of Liar's Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball and other books).

Highly recommended! And good for a laugh today.

History in our midst

This weekend, the wife and I decided on impulse to soak in a bit of the culture that surrounds us, which we always overlook. So we stopped by the 700 year old Tughlaqabad fort right in the middle of the city. And were amply rewarded for our efforts. The pictures (unfortunately taken only from a camera phone) tell a much more eloquent tale:
The fort was built by Ghiyasuddin Tughlaq in AD 1321. At that time vast and powerful, it encompassed an entire city within it, including water tanks, palaces, and the commoners' dwellings. The tomb of Ghiyasuddin, his wife and son - the (in) famous Mohammed bin Tughlaq - still lie in the fort in an exquisitely beautiful marble domed mausolem that is surprisingly very well maintained. It truly is an 'oasis of peace'. Highly recommended to those in / around Delhi

The end of capitalism?

One aspect of the much analysed cataclysm in the financial markets that bothers me is the implicit admission by the US administration that capitalism is dead. When the times are good, the capitalist makes money. When the times are bad, the public bails out the capitalist with a mega size cheque. Ok, this is an extreme statement. The public is buying the junk that is killing the capitalist. Actually the public is doing it so that 'markets can function'. Well. Hello. As per me, this is also part of capitalism - creative destruction needs to happen. It must not be stopped.

Per me, some of the consequences of the US administration's actions will last a lifetime - a) the world has seen the birth of the largest market manipulator ever - the US government. Ban short sales. Pour in the billions. Go after sellers. Where was this concern when firms were levering themselves up 30 times? (I kid you not - Lehman had $600 billion of debt, and $26 billion of equity!!). I wish I could get the same treatment - I will lever my meagre networth 30 times, make money when I can, and if I lose it all, I will look forward to Uncle Sam to capitalise me. What this tells every speculator is that everyone loves a rising market. So go ahead and plunge!!
b) who ultimately pays for this mess? Partly, the US taxpayer - he gets taxed more so that the US can fund its GIGANTIC fiscal deficit. But ultimately, 'Helicopter' Ben can just print more US dollars to bridge any gap between revenue and expense. This depreciates the dollar, screws exporters in (for example) India, spikes oil (and other commodity) prices, fuelling global inflation, so again screws India, and reduces the value of Asia's massive dollar reserve holdings (screwing, yet again, good old India).

I still think that the market will win out in the long term - such market manipulations will postpone the inevitable in the short run, but in the long run we will still see the necessary de-levering required to restore balance to the markets. But in the long run, we are all dead. So let us leave these minor problems for our children.

Bitter medicine

I wrote about the need for character in these troubled times, and hours later 'Helicopter' Ben obliged (would love to claim some credit for it!!). The US Fed has (rightly and bravely, in my humble opinion) ignored the 80% probability of a 25 bips rate cut that bond traders were betting on, and kept rates unchanged. While this probably means more pain for beleagured over-leveraged entities (like AIG?), it is good for the markets in the long run.

If I remember right, this (and the decision to let Lehman sink) is the first time that the Fed has signaled that it is walking away from bailing out failing institutions using taxpayer's money. This is good since it removes the obstacles from the forces of capitalism's 'creative destruction' - weaker firms will fail, painful de-leveraging will occur, and the business cycle will continue. Certainly this means more pain in the short term, but the writing on the wall is loud and clear - if managements of financial firms suffer from the same hubris or lethargy in dumping toxic assets / raising capital that Lehman did, then they too will suffer. This is good because it will prevent the buildup of insanely easy credit the next time around. Prevent? Maybe not - but it certainly should make a comeback more difficult.

At the time of writing this, the Dow Jones index has greeted the fed announcement with a knee-jerk 100 point drop. Looks like the behavior of a sulky child to me.

Crisis and opportunity

By most parameters, we are bang in the middle of tough times. Bombs explode at will in our metro cities and kill and maim innocents every few months. Fear stalks every move, even an innocent stroll in a busy market. Two of the top 4 investment banks in the US (and most B School students' employers of choice) are history overnight. A lot of friends / colleagues / batchmates are out of jobs and the outlook looks bleak for a lot more. Cassandras are calling it the beginning of another worldwide great depression.

One cliche I have always heard is that the Chinese symbol for crisis is made of 2 parts - one signifying danger and the other opportunity. While current times do seem like they are loaded with danger, it seems very difficult to find the opportunity anywhere.
To find and exploit opportunities needs character. Where will we find character?

We cannot look for it in the government in India, which has tried to stem the scourge of terrorism but has not been very successful. We certainly cannot look for it in the home minister, who keeps parroting inane homilies every time there are lives taken. We cannot look for character in the shenanigans of the US Treasury or 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke, who have tried to bail out falling giants, but are finding the going very tough.

That leaves us. All of us, Indian or otherwise, citizen or police, consumer or producer, have to show character and last out these tough times. Because, like all things natural, times will change, and the situation will improve. It is a question of riding the storm out.

My favourite (for the moment)

Rock On rocked.
Check this out:

Aargh!!! Not another...

Another day, another irritant...

I woke up to this (courtesy Mint) - not my idea of a great start to the day.

 

In a nutshell, the issue is thus: India is suffering from a major power shortage crisis.  The only way out of this crisis is more power generation. The government has tried (for 61 years now) and has realized that it cannot build generation capacity fast enough. Enter private power producers. These guys will put at RISK (this is a term that ALL bureaucrats should be drilled with - in fact, there should be a separate section in the IAS exam on risk and reward) millions and millions of dollars, and produce electricity.  They will try to lock in long term offtake contracts that gives them adequate return for the risk they are taking with their millions. Electricity cannot be stored - if not used, it goes waste. For this reason, they keep a small percentage of power uncommitted so that they can sell it in the spot market to overcome any sudden requirements. For this, there is a market mechanism to determine rates that these producers get - it is a simple auction on an electricity exchange - the buyer sees prices, and decides if he wants to buy (if so how much) or no.

Enter Mr. Bureaucrat. He is all-knowing and all-powerful. He thinks he is smarter than the market. He is in addition, a bleeding heart. He says - from now, you cannot charge more than Rs. x per unit. He justifies it thus - “How can an MPP developer sell power at Rs8 per unit while it is only costing him Rs2 to generate" The learned gentleman does not realize that there is a risk that someone is taking that needs a reward. In any case, how does he justify the cap of Rs 6 per unit?? So he is saying - you can make 3 times your money, not 4 times. I am the arbiter and judge of this, and not the market. This is because I am smarter and wiser than the market. 

Is this bureaucrat going to guarantee offtake? What if there is no demand for power, or no transmission capacity at a particular time from the power plant to the user? Then the producer makes electricity for Rs 2 a unit, and cannot sell it. So the money goes waste. Will this generous gentleman then assure offtake?

The net result - government intervention in pricing will kill private investments in power generation or power trading. India will continue to be condemned to live the life that its bureaucrats thinks she deserves. 

It would be comic if it were not so pathetic. 

Chrome

I am writing this post from the all new Chrome - Google's new web browser. Right now (in ten minutes of use) I cannot figure out how it is different (or better!) from the Internet Explorer - except the fact that I need to re-install some plugins that I had on IE. 

Full report in a couple of days!!

Heard on the radio

Delhi has this (well deserved?) reputation of being an aggressive and violent city. Today I heard a jingle on the radio which captures this nicely and along with Delhi, pokes fun at itself -

Man: Shooting, wrestling, boxing...
Woman: (disgusted) zaroor Dilli wale honge
Man: Arre, these are our Olympic winners!

I like it

Why so serious?

So much has been written about The Dark Knight that saying anything else about it would be cliched at best and plagiarism at worst. However, having just seen the movie, I feel compelled to spread the word. The movie is - not to put too fine a point upon it - SUPERB. It is the best comic book movie ever, and I dont think there can be a better one. I was always a Batfreak, and I am always wary of things that other people praise, but this movie has exceeded my wildest expectations.

Without further ado, here is a list of the things I loved about the movie -

The characters:

1. The Joker - the guy is a genius, evil personified, who is always one step ahead of Batman, the police and the District Attorney. The freak without a plan, a disciple of chaos, the single most powerful character of the movie had me hooked. Heath Ledger, with his nervous flicking of the tongue, really lives as the Joker. The 'irresistable force' more than matches Batman's 'immovable object'
2. The concept of Batman as menacing - I always thought of Batman as a good bloke, but after this movie, I can see why he is a menacing presence to all
3. Two Face - the ultimate rational being, who gives everything a 50-50 chance. Also, a victim of fate

The ideas:

1. That Batman is unique in that he need not be a hero, and so can do what is right. This special quality makes him transcend the usual crop of (now seemingly) daft superheroes
2. That chaos is more menacing than the most scary 'plan'
3. That it is ok to burn down the forest to get the rogue bandit

The gadgets:

1. The Batbike - uber cool. What else can I say?
2. The brightly blinking 'parachute' that flies up
3. Two Face's coin

The dialogue:

1. Why so serious?
2. One must die a hero, or live long enough to become a villian

The technique:

1. The fast pace and buildup of suspense in the screenplay
2. The background music - haunting and enticing

This is the third Christopher Nolan movie that is in my list of all time greats - after Memento, The Prestige and The Dark Knight, what will he come up with next?

Thoughts from the spectacle

I watched with great amusement the (in)famous trust vote in Parliament on live TV. Must say it was more engrossing than any of the K-soaps (not that I have, or ever would want to watch the damn things). It had all the elements - drama, suspense, passion, intrigue.

At the end of it all, the primary thought that struck me was that there is a silver lining in all this muck - no, I was not at all disgusted by the sight of wads of money being waved around - lets face it, how surprising was it? Everyone - bar none - knew that large scale buying of votes is pretty common in our polity - it has happened before, and will happen again. So why go all hypocritical and apoplectic about the 'sanctity' of Parliament or the 'damage to the integrity of the nation'? In fact I think this is a good thing because it at least lays out the rules of the game clearly - jiske note uska vote.

But to return to the silver lining - and that was that among all the cacophony and noise, the speeches by Rahul Gandhi and by Omar Abdullah stood out - for being sensible, rational, and (dare I add?) ethical. I was an ardent opponent of Sonia Gandhi being offered the PM's post, but I have revised my opinion about Mr. Gandhi Jr. For one, the guy spends a lot of time actually visiting far flung places and seeing how things are happening on the ground. For the other, even for his (incorrect?) prescriptions to problems - remember the famous Rs. 70,000 crore farm loan waiver? - at least he has in his target the correct problems. Not stupid cliches like 'communalism' or 'communism' but a much more real and practical war against poverty. That is the real scourge that needs to be eradicated, and that is what our esteemed lawmakers should spend their time thinking about. Whether you choose Medicine A (i.e. fiscal grants, loan waivers etc.) or Medicine B (i.e. spreading education, enabling entrepreneurship, upholding basic human rights and restoring individual dignity through capitalism) is the next step. But the basic step is to recognize the problem.

I have hope that Rahul Gandhi and Omar Abdullah and their like have recognized this problem. The King is dead - long live the King!!

Quotes on fear (thank you Wikipedia!)

Like one that on a lonesome road
Doth walk in fear and dread,
And having once turned round walks on,
And turns no more his head;
Because he knows, a frightful fiend
Doth close behind him tread.
Samuel Taylor Coleridge, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, Part VI, st. 10 (1798)

Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear — not absence of fear.
Mark Twain, Pudd'nhead Wilson, ch. 12 (1894)

I must say a word about fear. It is life's only true opponent. Only fear can defeat life. It is a clever, treacherous adversary, how well I know. It has no decency, respects no law or convention, shows no mercy. It goes for your weakest spot, which it finds with unerring ease. It begins in your mind, always. One moment you are feeling calm, self-possessed, happy. Then fear, disguised in the garb of mild- mannered doubt, slips into your mind like a spy. Doubt meets disbelief and disbelief tries to push it out. But disbelief is a poorly armed foot soldier. Doubt does away with it with little trouble. You become anxious. Reason comes to do battle for you. You are reassured. Reason is fully equipped with the latest weapons technology. But, to your amazement, despite superior tactics and a number of undeniable victories, reason is laid low. You feel yourself weakening, wavering. Your anxiety becomes dread. Fear next turns fully to your body, which is already aware that something terribly wrong is going on. Already your lungs have flown away like a bird and your guts have slithered away like a snake. Now your tongue drops dead like an opossum, while your jaw begins to gallop on the spot. Your ears go deaf. Your muscles begin to shiver as if they had malaria and your knees to shake as though they were dancing. Your heart strains too hard, while your sphincter relaxes too much. And so with the rest of your body. Every part of you, in the manner most suited to it, falls apart. Only your eyes work well. They always pay proper attention to fear.Quickly you make rash decisions. You dismiss your last allies: hope and trust. There, you've defeated yourself. Fear, which is but an impression, has triumphed over you. The matter is difficult to put into words. For fear, real fear, such as shakes you to your foundation, such as you feel when you are brought face to face with your mortal end, nestles in your memory like a gangrene: it seeks to rot everything, even the words with which to speak of it. So you must fight hard to express it. You must fight hard to shine the light of words upon it. Because if you don't, if your fear becomes a wordless darkness that you avoid, perhaps even manage to forget, you open yourself to further attacks of fear because you never truly fought the opponent who defeated you
Yann Martel, "Life of Pi", (178-9)

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
Frank Herbert, Dune - Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear (1965), pg. 8.

Fear

There is nothing to fear but fear itself - Franklin D Roosevelt

Oftentimes the fear of the unknown cripples me. A dark gnawing shadow grips my very heart and paralyzes my brain. I become helpless and freeze. Such is the power of fear.

At such times, I draw inspiration from stories of other peoples' overcoming great obstacles. I remind myself that life is a series of arbitrary events that even out in the end. I reassure myself that I can take the rough with the smooth.

I read this statement again. I am no longer afraid.

Jaane Tu? Not really...

Saw the mega-hit and much appreciated Jaane Tu yesterday. And came away with mixed opinions. The movie is overall ok, though only because of 3 positives. The negatives, per me, are 2 (but really big ones!).
Ironically, 2 out of the 3 positives are probably the shortest parts of the movie. And they are: 1) Naseeruddin Shah's character 2) Bhaloo and Bagheera and 3) the hero himself

The negatives are 1) The heroine: all she does in the entire movie is sport a very supercilious expression. The lady tries to be "sweet" but ends up looking like a class A candidate for punishment. Her accent is also pretty thick and should have been worked upon.
The 2nd negative is the story itself - somehow it does not seem feasible in the least (not least the rigmarole and hurry-scurry during the climax). What are mobile phones for, if I may ask?? And how about PCO booths?

All in all, I think the problem was that I went in with expectations that were higher than warranted.

Communist bashing

For a change, this is not me ranting away, but more measured opinion :-)
Check it out here

Some excerpts:
There is a long history of such conduct, going back to the Communist hostility to the Congress-led freedom movement and the willingness to act as agents of the British imperialists (because both Soviet Russia and Britain were on the same side in World War II). That was followed by the denouncing of Independent India as a bourgeois sham, leading to armed insurrection against the lawful government. And when the Chinese attacked India on the northern borders, the Communists once again did not take a clear position with the national mainstream

As for economic issues, when the Green Revolution was achieved, the Communists criticised it as a phenomenon that would displace labour and help only big farmers — whereas it is the Green Revolution that helped India become self-sufficient in food. Indeed, in Punjab which was at the heart of the change, there has been a growing labour shortage, and not the creation of surplus labour. The Left was also critical of the induction of computers, organising strikes to stop computerisation and thereby condemning office workers and whole organisations to manual processes long after they should have computerised and achieved quantum gains in productivity. Once again, the war cry was that workers would be displaced, whereas it is the computer age that has created huge employment in the country — with the Left Front-ruled West Bengal now struggling to reap some benefit by inviting the computer software giants to come to the state. And, of course, the Communists were bitterly critical of the "IMF-World Bank-dictated" economic reform programme that got launched in 1991; ironically, it is this very programme that has given the country freedom from IMF conditionality and also from the need to borrow from the World Bank

For many years, the Communists have also criticised those not of their ilk as being foreign agents, compradors and such like. Yet, as Soviet documentation has established, it is the Communists who were busy taking money from a foreign country, even as they pointed fingers at others. And coincidentally or not, the Left's opposition to the nuclear deal happens to tie in quite nicely with the interests of Communist China, which would like to see India remain in a nuclear straitjacket

Screwed!!

A friend recently had a windfall and landed some good money. He (being a saving type) does not want to splurge it on consumption goods, but wants to use the corpus to ensure financial security later in life. He is a worried man!
He narrated his logic to me thus:
1) if he keeps the money as cash, inflation erodes its value very quickly
2) if he invests in stocks, going by his recent experiences, he could see the value of his windfall decline 30% in a week
3) the amount is not large enough to buy any real estate. Moreover, he does not want to take a loan and buy property in these times of rising interest rates
4) if he keeps it in a fixed deposit, negative real interest rates screw him
5) he would like a new car, but he thinks rising oil prices will make running costs prohibitive

Not being entirely sober at that time, I suggested he roll up the entire amount, and throw it 'on the toss of a coin' (as Kipling would have said, rather written) on crude oil futures. Alternately he could punt on a short position on the US dollar.
That is the only certain thing in these bedevilled times!!

Thought for the day

I met a hugely successful person (by all conventional standards) today. Though he had a tendency to speak in rhetoric, one good thought he left with me -
'Don't run after money, because then you are only running along with everyone else. Follow your principles, do what you do best and let money run after you'

Not reproduced here verbatim, but substantially to similar effect. I love it!!

Powerful

I saw Aamir yesterday, and was blown away by the movie. It is gripping, hard-hitting and powerful. One needs a strong stomach to watch the thing. Although it evoked very mixed reactions from the people around me, without giving anything away, a few things that really stood out for me in the movie:

• The humanity of the protagonist - the guy is an everyday joe, doing what anyone would in his situation. What he does at the end, when he takes charge of his own destiny, is something that requires great courage. The alternative was quite easy to do, and putting myself into his shoes, I probably would have taken the easy way out - I could not have done what he did
• The depiction of Bombay - very real (brutally so!)
• The taut script - no needless subplots, no (melo)dramatic dialogue, good background score, good acting. The name itself - Aamir - which means a leader of men - is very apt
• The thoughts it provoked in me - the essence of the movie is that everyone is responsible for their own destiny, and that there comes a time when (to express it most beautifully) a guy's got to do what a guy's got to do. An individual is a trifle, insignificant and immaterial. There comes an opportunity to transcend oneself, to become greater than the sum of your existence and the society around you. The one who grabs that opportunity is Aamir

Day dream

Malvinder Singh is a guy I envy right now. The dude is all set to pocket approximately $2.5 bn (or Rs. 10,000 crores - the number of zeros in that number has me reeling :-) from selling Ranbaxy to the good Japanese at a hefty premium to market.
Without going into usual debate over whether he did the right thing or no (suffice it to say I approve of the transaction), the more interesting debate in media right now is - what the blazes is he going to do with Rs. 100,000,000,000 (thats 11 zeros folks!)?? Mr. Singh still has a job (he will continue to lead Ranbaxy), and he has made some noises about making Religare a bank (though I dont think he is very serious when he says that), but all this does not prevent me from fantasizing about what I would do if I ever laid my hands on such moolah.
Of course my initial thoughts run to tropical islands, decadent living and luxury homes, but then I decided to find out what use better minds than mine have figured out for money.

• Till recently Mr. Rich Man #1, Bill Gates has decided to give away all his money to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which will use it to prevent AIDS, and organize social initiatives in poor economies like India / Bangladesh etc.
• Mr. Rich Man #2 (and God to legions of investors), Warren Buffett will give away his entire fortune to (surprise surprise) the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• Not too long ago India's richest family, the Tatas, use all the profits from the Tata companies (via Tata Sons) for charity...

I begin to see a pattern. And it gives me ideas. What I would really do with Rs. 9,990 crores (I have put away 10 crores in the bank, remember?) is

a) build a huge university. The university will operate on a pure capitalistic model, with extremely high standards of admission, the best paid faculty, and the best hostel infrastructure, and a market driven fee strucutre. However, the poorest 30% students would get scholarships which would cover their tuition fee (the funds for this would come from interest from an allocated amount). (I will need to devise some smart way of figuring out the real deserving poor students vs. rich kids whose parents get their income through 'unofficial' means)

b) build a huge hospital, extremely modern and efficient, with the best infrastructure, the best paid doctors and nurses, and market rates for treatment. However, the poorest 30% patients will get diagnosis, treatment and medicine for free (funds to come out of interest on an allocated amount)

While I actually have no clue if this would cover the amount at my disposal, I have an idea it would be enough. Anything left over I will hand over to my wife to invest in equity markets and multiply manifold, the proceeds of which I will use to buy my decadent island :-)

Greener grass

After an intense week (and weekend) spent furiously working away, including an entire weekend spent in office, minimal sleep (it is now 1:15am and still a couple of hours to go before i can call it a day) and lots of stress, clarity emerges on some key issues -

1. Family is your most precious asset - without loving and caring family one is finished
2. Better work somewhere you really like - otherwise every challenge beomes a huge burden
3. There is no free lunch - there are trade-offs in almost everything in life
4. Living today is the only way to live - who has seen tomorrow?
5. The grass is always greener on the other side
6. Sleep is the most under-rated luxury

Fuel prices - the strange truth

Another fuel price hike is imminent within a couple of days. While I had always argued for de-regulation of retail fuel prices, I recently came across some interesting information on oil price dynamics in India.

I always assumed that fuel prices are artificially low in India. Let us test this hypothesis. The US (where gasoline ie petrol prices are market driven) retails petrol for $3.6 - 4 per gallon. One gallon = 4.5 liters and 1$ = Rs 42.6. Doing the math, we get Rs. 34 - 37 per liter of petrol. In Delhi (which I believe has the lowest fuel price in India), it retails for Rs 43 / liter. So how can it be under-priced??

The interesting answer is that petrol is underpriced in India from the point of view of oil-marketing companies only, not from the end-consumer point of view. And the guy who keeps all the cream is (no surprises here!) the Government of India.

Here is how it works (all numbers for example only) - petrol price (at international prices): Rs 100. Landed cost in India: Rs 105 (price at which the oil cos refine / buy the stuff). Taxes paid by oil companies (like IOC, HPCL and BPCL) to the Govt (incl. excise, customs and sales taxes): Rs 40. So oil companies' cost: Rs 145. Retailing price: Rs 120. Loss to oil co: Rs 25. Loss to consumer: Rs 15. Gain to big brother GoI: Rs 40.

GoI is a well meaning guy. He wants to make sure that he gets votes. So he takes this Rs 40, and distributes it as largesse to various deserving sections. The only hitch - his agents (the political honchos and bureaucrats - guys in charge of making sure it reaches the right people) - keep Rs 39.5 out of this Rs 40. So they can stash it under their mattresses / maintain their multiple mistresses / send their kids abroad etc etc.

Nice scheme.

Also another reason why oil prices in India will never be de-regulated (at least not while the Congress and their brethren in bed the Communists are in power). Hopefully this will change one day!

A happy end to a long saga

The Bharti - MTN story has finally had a happy ending. First, a disclaimer - Bharti Airtel has been (and remains) one of my favourite stocks, so anything I say here is obviously biased :-)

While in my humble opinion, the deal would have been good for Bharti had it gone through (it would have given Bharti the chance to replicate its low-cost model elsewhere i.e. MTN has much lower margins than Bharti even though it gets much higher ARPU or revenue per user), it is better that Bharti decided to put its foot down when the MTN board reneged on agreed terms and wanted a reverse merger. I think this is a story that MTN has played out multiple times in the last few years - it has dallied with every large mobile operator you can think of - but has always gone back on its word when the rubber hit the road. It would be tough for anyone to take MTN seriously from now on.

Except our dear friend, Mr. 'Power' Ambani, who will gladly jump in and do anything to see valuations rise as he huffs and puffs to demonstrate his victory in sibling rivalry. Anything except improve his companies' operating performance, that is. Even then, tough to see how he would agree to make RComm a subsidiary of MTN.

I think this also demonstrates the high quality of management at Bharti, who were able to walk away from a deal which they could have done, because it went against their desire to make Bharti a truly global company, instead of merely making themselves richer. I think they have done the right thing! All the best to them...

Flicks on a flight

Come to think of it, most of the really good movies that I see are on Jet Airlines flights from Europe to India.

I saw Paris, J'taime last time around.
This time, I started the flick feast with 'There Will be Blood'. In one word - mind blowing. Daniel Day Lewis creates such an intense character that it is tough to rivet your eyes away from the screen. There is blood, of course, and oil, and religion, and greed. Extremely intense and dark movie - a must see.

Next up, I checked out 'I am Legend' (only for Will Smith). Not impressive at all.

And finally, when it was almost too late, I started watching a movie that I have been wanting to for a long long time - Manorama, Six Feet Under. I liked the movie tremendously, especially Abhay Deol's believeable character. However, great tragedy struck, since just 20 mins from the end of the suspense thriller, the plane began its descent, and the movie was turned off :-( So till now I am festering in curiousity about whodunnit.

Anyone who has seen the movie, please call me up asap. Otherwise I may have to go to Europe again!!!

Scrambled thoughts...

I met up with some friends in Venice. These are very nice, educated, intelligent people. What they had to say about what they hear about India left me feeling weird - I didn't know whether to laugh or be concerned about the massive ignorance about my country. Sample a few gems:

1. The main newspaper in Verona (a small Italian town, with a population of 300,000 - about the size of Dwarka in Delhi), carried a full front page article on the "moral outrage" that IPL cheerleaders have caused in India
2. A lot of people believe that all 5 star hotel gyms in India have a sign over treadmills saying "Please do not run over 10km / hour because that will cause a power cut in our hotel"
3. Indians do not like sports. They do not exercise, and they do not lead healthy lives
4. India is a bad country to do business in - the Four Seasons hotel in Mumbai had to get 201 govt. permits to install 201 taps in their 201 hotel rooms

I feel great anger at these perceptions. No one talks like this about China - this is because China performs while India only promises. I want my country to perform as it is capable of. I want people to talk with awe and envy when they speak about my country. I am proud about my country and I will refute anyone who thinks otherwise.

This is why I feel inordinate anger at Manmohan Singh. He is criminally wasting the energy of a billion people. He is harbouring Arjun Singh, whose sole ability is that of licking his master's (or mistress') heels, and a gift for screwing up a billion people. He is harbouring Anbumani Ramadoss, who is worried about what Mallika Sherawat is doing on screen, instead of who is manufacturing spurious medicine. He is advocating salary cuts for CEOs, so that his cohort can make more money as feudal overlords of licenses.

I would rather have Mayawati as PM. At least she says what she means.

Fantasies for beating the merciless summer sun

1. Swimming in cool, originated-from-melted-snow waters of the Jhelum river in Manali
2. Sipping absolutely chilled beer in a cool, dark room with the TV playing a light romantic comedy in the background
3. Showering for 2 continuous hours in cold, underground tank stored water (slipping into a tub full of the same water while reading a nice book also merits the same rank)
4. Putting ice cubes in the air cooler tank, darkening the room, and lying on a straw mat on the cool floor
5. Making lots of money speculating in the stock market / winning a huge sweepstakes, and buying yourself a month long luxury holiday to Switzerland with the same
6. Sitting under a leafy huge peepal tree in a huge garden with bright green grass, on a hammock, and sipping cold nimbu paani
7. Wearing an ice-vest (idea courtesy Australian cricketers)

Other ideas welcome...

Paisa Vasool? Maybe not...

Yesterday I saw an India Premier League T20 match for the first time (first time? I hear you exclaim... the reason why I did not watch any match earlier are too complicated to be dealt with on this post), and walked away un-impressed. The match between the Kolkata Knight Riders and the Mumbai Indians (what kind of name is that??) did not hold out too much promise in any case. But my reasons for not liking it are different.

Most important, I was not rooting for any team. It made not the least difference to me if one side was winning or the other. I dare say it would have been exactly the same had the Delhi DareDevils been playing (again, a name I do not sympathise with!). This robbed the match of any kind of excitement.

Next, the players themselves seemed kind of ho-hum about the whole affair. Ricky Ponting is the last guy I would want to be against if his national team is on the backfoot. But in this match, he seemed quite casual. In fact, I probably should not name names, because even the Mumbai players seemed to lack any kind of bonding. It was just a game to everyone (probably as it should be!)

Third, I did not like the garish golden/ugly blue helmets and pads that the players had on. It looked like a blooming circus show

Fourth, the match itself was pretty one-sided. Right from the first over. So much so, that I gave up after the first six overs, and returned for a very brief interlude towards the middle of the 2nd innings

Maybe this is a litany of negatives without reason. But I certainly do not see what makes it so attractive for everyone else. Apparently the whole nation watches little else on TV. Not that I disapprove - if this is what they want, this is what they should get.

Theatre of the Absurd

I always suspected that we are moving inexorably towards a police state in India, given the bleeding hearts not only in Government, but alas, among general society, who think that laissez faire is a concept best left to academia. They have all the answers, and they know best what is good for you, me and everyone. They are the proponents of the communist state!

I suspected it, and now I have evidence. Sample this, sourced from today's Economic Times. It first made me slack jawed in disbelief, then exceedingly angry, and finally just numb and confused. Am I reading this right? Is there something that I am missing?

(italics are mine):
Ban on pvt school teachers on investing in stock market mooted
20 Apr, 2008, 1041 hrs IST, PTI
MUMBAI: Teachers in Maharashtra's private schools may be banned from investing in stock market if a proposal by the Education Department is implemented. Reason? The Department considers such investments as gambling. A proposal mooted by the education department says that the teachers in private schools in the state could invest only in cooperative banks and credit societies.

The Government has come up with a 'code of conduct' for secondary school teachers, including those in private schools. The draft code of conduct has been circulated among the teachers' unions. The proposal also puts restrictions on investments and business by family members of the teachers. If any member has an insurance policy, or is involved in insurance business or any other business, it needs to be reported to the Deputy Director of education, according to the proposal.

It also stipulates that teacher should not marry a person whose ex-partner is alive and also bars teachers from entering into a marriage contract sans permission from school management. The proposal also adds that marriage to a foreigner should be reported to the management.

The proposal also puts restrictions on teachers' participation in social or political movement and asks them to convince family members to do so. They would also be required to inform the management if a family member wants to contest election.

Connaught Place in pictures

Photos from walk described in earlier post (move mouse over photo to see label):

A walk around CP

Being a bit free in office, I just took off for a bit and went down to CP in the middle of the day. The bright sunshine and the happy milling crowds sparked off the thought that I miss out on this cheerful daily spectacle everyday for no reason! There is something about the magic of human contact, even though you may not know even a single person among the thousands walking by, that beats sitting by yourself in an air conditioned office all day.

Another thought that struck me was that Connaught Place really is quite pretty. The quaint architecture, the wide grassy lawns, the massive wide roads are all quite alluring. If only the honking of cars reduces a bit (which it will - CP is going to be a no-traffic zone from 2010), it would become comparable to the best town centers in the world (Marienplatz in Munich comes to mind).

Yet another thought was - what the hell was I doing in my younger days, when I should have been roaming about this place, without a care, like all the pretty and happy young people here? Sigh! Lost opportunities! When I was closeted with my books (actually I never was! I think it was mainly the computer and the intranet which kept me occupied :-) during college days, I missed out on this hugely relaxing aspect of life. And though I probably am reasonably well off today because of my education, I kind of yearn for the lost, carefree days when I could have chilled out in CP doing nothing.

And the final thought I had was that commerce is booming! Foodstuff is getting sold (literally) like hot cakes :-). The branded stores may not be selling too much, but good old value priced stuff is flying off the shelves and into shopping bags. Roadside pirated booksellers are doing roaring trade. Plastic is getting flashed a-plenty. I am not worried about falling home prices or subprime credit issues half-a-globe away!

I am sure I would have got more insights after imbibing a chilled pint or two of beer. The temptation was almost too strong to resist. If only I had someone to share it with, I would definitely have taken the plunge :-)

Genuine confusion

Something puzzles me about the Dahllies (that is Delhi for those unfamiliar with Delhi's 'sophisticates' and their accent). And that is the following:

If Vasant Vihar is VV
If Defence Colony is DefCol
If Punjabi Bagh is PBags
If Kamala Nagar is KNags
If Greater Kailash is GK
Why is South Extension not SEx???

Identify the bigger bull!

The new new thing

What is it with the IIMs? I always suspected that they breed some kind of a herd mentality (actually I'm being very harsh here - all education in our country has the same outcome!), but what convinces me is this new rush to publish books with an 'IIM' tag.

It was started by 'Five Point Someone' which was the first in its niche. It was followed up by some juvenile effort called 'Anything for you, Ma'am' or some such about life in IIT. And I have been the victim of 2 recent publications - one which was truly despicable ('If God were a Banker' - which tries to peg its tag to IIM AND Citibank), and the other ('The Funda of Mix-ology' - What bartending teaches which IIM doesnt) which, while not the absolute dumps, is nothing to write home about either.

And more to come - I already see marketing efforts for more IIM books.

My point is not that all IIM books are trash - it is that if you need to leverage your IIM roots to sell your book, why dont you write something half-readable? In my opinion, you are diluting the brand, and giving up your chance to stand out from a cluttered marketplace (this sounds suspiciously like what some marketing guy would say, and I am certainly very poor in that discipline, if my grades are anything to go by!!)

I still look forward to the IIM book which is a) relevant b) readable and c) purposeful. Hell, I may just write one myself!!

Why would I want Feedjit?

As some of you may have noticed, I recently put a couple of embellishments on my blogpage. These include a survey app and a very simple scripting app that tells me who visited my page from where and left from where (branded by Feedjit).

The survey has been a spectacular flop, with 2 votes so far (I must shamefacedly confess that both were me, to see how the damn thing works!!). But maybe that was because the survey question was un-imaginative. The other application is what puzzles me, once I sit down to think of it. Why would I want to know who visits my blog page? These could be some reasons:

• I want to generate advertising revenues by showing off my multi-national readership (not the case, since this is a not-for-profit enterprise).
• I want to tailor content according to readership (I dont think I am that good or versatile yet!).
• I am curious (a bit, but not REALLY).
• I go on an ego trip by looking at how many countries I have readership in!!
  

Of all these, I think #4 wins hands down. However, this application is an inaccurate barometer for measuring countrywide readership and getting grandiose thoughts of being a widely loved and respected writer :-) This is because a lot of internet traffic is routed via firewalls / filters / gateways which reside in the US / Europe. For example, whenever I was logged into my corporate network at my last employers, I would always show up as a US origin IP address. So there is not much sanctity to what Feedjit shows me.

It does have its uses though (mostly for reason #3). For example, looking at what the damn thins says right now, I notice that the last person to visit is from 'Petaling Jaya, Wilayah Persekutuan'.

Clearly, I am much intrigued by who could be living in 'Petaling Jaya, Wilayah Persekutuan' which looks like it is in Malaysia. I try to rack my brains about classmates / colleagues / friends who could be in Malaysia right now. Cant think of anyone. I also notice that I myself show as having arrived from 'Bombay, Maharashtra', whereas I am indisputably in Delhi.

In conclusion, I find this application not of much use, and have decided to remove it from this page! I aslo want to ask other buddies who have this application - What is your reason for putting the thing on your page?

Whither Expert??

The bull market frenzy of the 6 months preceding mid-Jan of 2008 has given rise to a new species. In addition to the bulls and bears of the stock market, we had the curious spectacle of the emergence of the 'expert', popularised by the opium distributing CNBCs and NDTVs of this world. This 'expert' needed no skill, experience or achievement. All that was required was 1) an ability to follow the herd superlatively, like it had not been followed before and 2) massive doses of selective amnesia, to be able to forget what was said yesterday, and indeed contradict it with impunity.

Sample this - Mr A (who shall go un-named here) says on January 4 (nifty at ~6,100): the Nifty is poised to touch new highs. If it crosses 6300, the next target is 6700, to be reached within a couple of weeks. So far so good, the guy is entitled to his opinion. The self same Mr A says on Jan 23 (post nifty crash at ~5,000): the nifty is in a major downtrend. The next target for the nifty is 4000, which if violated, the index could go to 3,500. Duh! Dude, maybe you dont get it, but that is like forecasting yesterday today! Your opinion is not merely irrelevant, it is contradictory and self-defeating!!!

There are so many such examples that I could possibly not list out the entire bunch here. Having an honest opinion is fine - you could be wrong, but having an opinion that changes POST facto, based on the trend and what others are saying, is not only stupid, it is unethical. The reason such characters abound is driven by two factors - 1) the desire in our media to create 'celebrities' - we see it on the garish vernacular channels, where it is more in-your-face and 2) the lack of financial maturity in our markets. This is not surprising, given that most of us 'invest' based on tips from friends / colleagues or these 'experts'. Contrast this with developed markets, which, though driven by the same basic emotions of greed and fear, and much more evolved, measured and rational about the state of the economy.

I have hit upon a novel way to make money off these 'experts' advice - I promptly do the opposite of what they tout. Believe me, it works!! What a lot of retail investors dont get is that investing is a serious business, best handled by professionally qualified and experienced individuals. This is what enables the 'expert' to survive, and indeed thrive. I wish our market quickly learns this fact and stops the loss of its hard earned profits!! In the meantime, I look forward to profiting from their babbling prophecies.

Haikus

Consultitis had this nice post on haikus.

A good one repeated here:
Phantom ship moves through
waters hushed in mist. Foghorns
question the darkness.

Here are a couple of my own contributions!

soft clicks of a keyboard
and muted good mornings in cubicles.
sensuous aroma of coffee

bright sunshine and heat
sweat pouring off eyebrows. a quiet songbird chirps
in a silent moment

laid out on a hammock
swayed by the breeze, gazing gently at the sky
epiphany strikes

A (not-so) radical idea

The world is entering (in already in?) a phase of slowing economic growth, if not an outright recession. While classical economists will argue that this is part of normal business cycles, and that it is necessary to curtail excesses built in the boom years of asset price inflation, I think there is somethink different this time around (famous last words?? :-))

Usually, economic recessions are coupled with commodity price recessions. What is different in this recession is that commodities are still not easing at all. Oil climbs everyday to new highs. Metals, gold, foodgrains are still bullish. Part of the reason is the significant dollar weakness, but this alone does not explain the significant price inflation in commodities.

The reason is not too difficult to fathom. China, India and the developing world is using up more and more of basic materials, and this is causing their prices to rise. On top of that, the Indian government is trying to use fiscal measures to stimulate the economy (it desperately wants to keep inflation low in an election year, although by doing this it is curtailing growth in sectors that are really suffering - export dependent sectors for example, which will continue being hit as dollar flows seeking higher debt returns cause appreciation of the Rupee, or realty, or autos). But this post is not about the ills of the lame duck Indian government.

The problem with fiscal measures is that they benefit commodity producers more than they benefit the Indian economy. In an environment where oil and fertilizers are massively subsidized, fiscal measures cause more use of these commodities because of the unnatural price cap. This benefits OPEC - both for oil and fertilizers since natural gas is the biggest raw material in fertilizer production, not India.

How can this situation be balanced? And now we come to the (not so) radical idea - that oil prices in India should be de-regulated. Not only de-regulated, but the subsidy on diesel and keroscene at the cost of petrol should also go. Though this will cause some pain in terms of inflation, the long term benefits will be massive:

1. Prevention of leakages in fiscal stimuli to the economy
2. Less waste of taxpayers money, which could be used to fund massive infrastructure build
3. Environmental benefits, as the normal demand-supply economics curtail use of oil for transport, in polluting diesel generators, and in wastefully inefficient industries
4. Less congestion on roads, better use of public transport, and saved time from efficient travel
5. Less dependence on fertilizers and pesticides in farming produce (and therefore better long term health benefits, with lower wasteage in terms of health costs)

To me, it is unclear why the government does not see this long-term solution to a lot of our problems.

An epic love story

...no, i am not talking about Jodhaa-Akbar, but about the Hip Hopper. Warning: a bit suggestive!!

Babbar Sher (edited)

I always listen to FM radio when I'm driving. Babbar Sher is one program which makes me increase the volume. A sampling of the corny couplets on air:

Samundar ke kinare baithe hain
Kabhi to leher bhi aayegi
Taqdeer ab badle ya na badle
Par chappal to dhul jaayegi

Another one -

Suna hai ishq mein
logon ki neend ud jaati hai
Kaash koi humse bhi ishq kare
Aajkal kambakht neend badi aati hai

And another -

Darakht ke paimaane mein
Furqat se chilman-e-husn ka sharmaana
Iska matlab samajh aaye
To humein bhi samjhaana

Is it just me or is something wrong?

I ambled into a shoes store at the Vasant Lok shopping complex in Delhi today. The sign outside screamed - flat 40% off! and I thought this was as good a time as any to replace my trusty worn out Reeboks.

Inside I had a tough time, because:

• most of the shoes were large and clunky, boasting of various exotic things like air-max, dmx, shockx and allied technologies
• they were all quite ugly looking
• the prices were astounding! nothing less than 6 grand - after the 40% off, it came to around 4 grand
• there seemed to be very little variety, if at all
• the shoes said 'Made in Thailand' and I recall that in Bangkok, the same shoes were available for close to a thousand bucks not too long ago

I walked out thinking that this particular shop must be in a last ditch desperate attempt to make its monthly rental by fleecing clueless people like me. I then walked into another store - and then another - and another - and the same situation persisted!

Is it me, or has something changed in the last couple of years. Six k for a pair of ugly sport shoes??

PS - Discouraged and disheartened, I succumbed and bought a pair similar to my old pair. The financial damage has me reeling...

Peering into a crystal ball

Economic news everywhere is very grim. The headlines scream out about a recession in the US every day. The US fed keeps cutting interest rates like there is no tomorrow. Every week sees some new humongous write-offs by US and European financial institutions. Markets everywhere are in a tailspin. All in all, a portent of economic disaster waiting to happen.

I tried to step back and make sense of all of this. What does this mean? And how can one position oneself for this? First, some (foolhardy?) predictions:

• The Indian economy will continue to chug along at around 7% real growth. High interest rates will continue strangling retail credit growth and corporate investments, and GDP growth will moderate by a couple of percentage points. Real estate, autos will be damped. However, domestic sectors like consumer goods, telecoms, infrastructure sectors, financial services will continue to flourish.
• The rupee will continue to appreciate, driven by inflows of arbitrage seeking capital, keeping IT, textiles, auto component sectors under stress.
• The government will try fiscal stimulants for maintaining growth - effectively, tax cuts, increased infrastructure creation, populist sops. However, in an election year, there will be high sensitivity to inflation, so money supply will be curbed with continuing high interest rates. All of this will crowd out private investment.
• The US consumer-led slowdown will cool growth worldwide, and bring down prices of commodities like metals, oil, shipping etc. However, demand from India and China will keep oil from falling below $50-60 per barrel. This will lead to continued creation of petro-dollars, which will continue buying distressed assets in the US. Eventually there will be a backlash, and the petro-dollars will flow into markets such as India.
• After a while, investors will realize that India is a good place for generating returns, and this will cause a slight re-rating of the equity market. In other words, goodbye to 40%+ returns, and hello to more stable 15-20% type of returns for a year.

Of course, all of this may not come true. The US economy could probably be made to have a 'soft-landing' due to the Fed's rigorous rate cuts. However, this would create conditions for the next crisis 5 years down the line. There will be more empty talk of 'de-coupling' of India, but after a decade of 8% type GDP growth, this de-coupling will actually happen.

Our kids will probably see that happen. Till then we will periodically squeeze out the excesses in our asset prices in 5 year cycles (note that the last two depressions in India happened in 1996-97, and then 2001-02). So watch out for 2012-13!!

Rediscovery of an old favourite

My wife has recently re-discovered fascination for an old favourite of mine - Erle Stanley Gardner's wonder lawyer Perry Mason, and his sidekicks Della Street and Paul Drake. Her enthusiasm has rubbed off on me, and recently we bought a lot of these books and compete with each other to read them first.

I was always a big fan of Perry Mason, not only for the involved detective stories that come together beautifully in the end, but for the explosive courtroom scenes which usually see Mason steal a march over his detractors - most notably Hamilton Burger, the district attorney- through some spectacular legal manoeuveres.

Perry Mason is a detective in the Sherlock Holmes mould - always proactive, bustling about (if not in person then through the Drake Detective Agency), and not averse to bending the letter of the law, if only to uphold its spirit. He is extremely ethical, and tremendously far sighted. Almost in all cases, he finds himself battling not only on his clients' behalf, but also on his own, since his investigations lead him against the state police machinery.

The thing I like a lot about the Mason books is that you could have read them before, yet they manage to hold your interest on a re-read, probably because the cases are so involved that you would forget most of the nuances and the actual culprit in some time (it took me only 12 months). Additionally, the foreword for each book has the author stress on some new aspect of forensic science or legal developments which are baked into the story. However, the best part is that the books remain page-turners, easy to read and able to build interest right till the last page.

Here's wishing posterity to the legacy of Perry Mason!

South East Asia

I dont think a lot of (market interested) people would forget this week in a hurry!



But I found this graph uncannily similar to the coastline of South East Asia - from Gujarat in India all the way upto Vietnam and China!

2008

The reason I've been sloth in posting on this blog (no posts in December!!) has been that I've been on a long vacation, the highlight of which was terminal Blackjack addiction in Las Vegas, not only for me but also my otherwise wise wife! The paradox is that there are so many things to blog about, that I probably wont be able to write about even one of them.

But first here's wishing everyone a very belated and very happy new year!

On Jan 1 2007, I had made 3 resolutions, which were pretty fundamental. They involved desired changes in my weight, career, and marital status. By a huge coincidence and massive doses of luck, I was able to fulfil all of them (alas, a few only temporarily!!). This hugely encouraged me to make some resolutions for this year as well, and I have given this matter some desultory thought over the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, I was unable to come up with very fundamental resolutions, which I could keep. So here are some relatively light ones, which I will document here, and judge my performance against at the end of 2008:

1. Limit alcohol intake to once a month (wine not included here since I usually dont swill wine uncontrollably)
2. Wake up early (i.e. early for me - 6:30 am) each day
3. Contribute significantly to charity at least twice in the year
4. Learn a new activity - either Karate or some form of dance
5. Push myself harder professionally

Would be good to hear about your resolutions as well!

Thunder pe Wonder

Q: If Agent Vinod, Gunmaster G-9 and Agent 116 (hint: these are NOT fictional characters!) came together to save the country from an attack by giant locusts, what would their war-cry be?

A: Thunder pe Wonder!!

Couldn't stop laughing once I read this article (thanks to Mint)

Excerpts here:

The first desi Bond was Jeetendra in Farz (1967). Gopal or Agent 116 of the Indian Secret Service was still quite a homeboy, with his remarkable exclamation, “Thunder pe wonder”, and his white trousers. He meets Sunita (Babita) in the course of investigating the death of another agent and finds that the trail leads to Sunita’s dad.

The next year, we had Sailesh Kumar, who played a spy in Goldeneyes Secret Agent O77 in 1968. If you do not remember who Sailesh Kumar was, don’t let it worry you. No one else does.

This was followed by Agent 999 Operation Jackpot in 1972. Perhaps these flopped badly for it took a while for Rajshri Productions to start Agent Vinod, played by Mahendra Sandhu, which they released in 1977. The story established a pattern that almost all the others were to follow. A scientist (Nasir Hussain) is kidnapped. The government sends in Agent Vinod, who is helped by the daughter of the scientist (Asha Sachdev).

The only James Bond knock-off to be a hit was Suraksha (1979), in which Mithun Chakraborty played Gopi alias Gunmaster G9, with M played by Iftikhar at his school-masterly best. Suraksha’s most memorable moment was a graveside sequence. One of the Indian intelligence agents, Jackson (Suresh Oberoi), has been killed by the nasties. When the Indian intelligence agencies dig him up, they find pieces of plastic in his grave. Some uncredited extra utters the immortal lines: “Sir, ispe to plastic surgery kiya gaya hai (sir, he has had plastic surgery).”

Director Ravikant Nagaich tried to recreate the glory of Suraksha with Wardat two years later, in which Gopi came back when the nation was under attack from large locusts—but it flopped. Trade pundits opined that this was because Indian audiences could not take the idea of Gunmaster G9 being unfaithful to Ranjeeta, the heroine of Suraksha, since Kaajal Kiron was now playing the daughter of the kidnapped scientist and the G9 girl. It might well have been that it was just a very bad film.