Thursday, January 28, 2010

Power and Beauty

Ever wondered why high heels exist? Why the most common lipstick colour is red? Why women prefer (guys with) cars to (guys with) motorbikes? Most of all, does size REALLY matter? The answers are all simple. Explained in this article (courtesy Mint Lounge)...

Pretty interesting, I thought! Though at the end of it all, I had just one question - what is a pudenda??

I have a game I have been trying out at parties for a decade. I ask women to give it a thought, and then choose the order in which they would be attracted to the following types of men as their partner: a) Good-looking b) Powerful c) Stable.

No other quality in these three men is defined, and they are what those words mean. Almost invariably, women choose the powerful man as the one they are most attracted to. This is followed by the stable man and last, the good-looking one. I cannot remember more than a couple of women, and I have polled dozens, who did not choose power as the thing they were drawn to most.
I ask men to choose from the following:
a) Beautiful
b) Rich
c) Homely
Men always choose beautiful first; most pick homely second and rich last.
We are uncomfortable with accepting the extent to which our instinct, formed over tens of thousands of years as hunters-gatherers, dominates our intellect. But it is true that our sexual instinct is not entirely in our control, and women are drawn towards the powerful male.

A wealthy man, no matter how ugly—Aristotle Onassis—will bed the most desirable women in the world: Jacqueline Kennedy, Maria Callas. Given that fact, powerful men often practise what is called serial monogamy, monopolizing a beautiful woman for the best years of her beauty and then moving on to the next woman. That’s why rich men often have many divorces—Larry King is on his eighth wife, Johnny Carson had four, Mickey Rooney eight.
Other powerful men have a different model, a stable family life but constant sexual relationships on the side: Tiger Woods, David Beckham and Bill Clinton.
Evolutionary psychologists attribute this behaviour not to sex addiction but the instinct to spread genes. Man has an unlimited number of potential offsprings because of his ability to generate sperm. And so the most important aspect of whether or not he will mate with a woman is not love or even attraction, but opportunity. Most males will accept this if asked, and any number of studies show it to be true.
One study, a few years ago, had a beautiful woman on a college campus approaching strangers to have sex with her. Every single man she approached agreed. When an attractive man did the same with the campus women, not one agreed. Again, the reason for this is thought to be primal, and it is this. A woman will have three or four and a maximum of perhaps a dozen or so children (Mumtaz Mahal was rewarded with the Taj Mahal for producing 14). So, in a species where man is provider, she must be more careful in selecting her mate because she has to ensure he is capable of protecting her limited offspring. This explains the female attraction to power.
Gujarati women find Narendra Modi very attractive sexually and, even more than the man, it is the urban Gujarati woman who has made Modi a heroic figure in that state. An ageing woman does not have appeal in society because man is instinctively trained to see that her utility is low. This is why women hide their age more than men. It is because of her declining fecundity that age is unattractive on a woman though it’s irrelevant in the rich man. This is not to preclude that a man might find a beautiful woman of older age sexually attractive: He will (remember the opportunity rule). But this will be a relationship of casual sex, because man is first drawn to the nubile woman. Exactly how nubile? The male preference for shaved pudenda offers an indication.
The idea that women are drawn to power opens up doors that many men would rather be left shut. The myth in health literature that penis size does not matter is subscribed to primarily by men. Women would actually have been attracted genetically to the large organ before the use of clothing, which is quite recent. This is because a larger organ is more efficient at depositing sperm, thus ensuring fertilization.
We know that organ size matters because it conditions the unusual behaviour of males in the toilet. In the men’s room, when a urinal is open between two standing men, a third man entering will avoid the spot in the middle and head for the fifth urinal so as to keep one open space between him and the next man. This is because he is conscious of his neighbour sizing him up.
Indian men are particularly insecure and toilets here have a wall—often as high as a standing man’s head—between each urinal.
Incidentally, this competition among men for women is a clear indicator that the anti-homosexual sentiment of Christians and Muslims is Old Testament prejudice. Instinctively, all heterosexual men should like homosexuals because they are not a threat. Often we send out sexual signals that we think are effective, but are actually meaningless. The man who colours his hair black does so without understanding that his youth isn’t what women primarily find attractive in him. It is important, however, for a woman to colour her hair, and the defiant woman who doesn’t, finds it difficult to get men to view her in a sexually attractive light.
Despite the male obsession with large motorcycles, and the advertising that suggests that women find them alluring, an expensive car, say a Mercedes-Benz, is much more effective at communicating a man’s quality. Money power being the key here, and not mechanical power. Similarly, the female predilection for handbags is unfathomable to men, though wearing stilettos is a good idea. Women should wear high-heeled shoes. They make a woman physically vulnerable, teetering, and that makes her attractive to a man, because he likes to think of domination. The heels reform her posture forwards, and that also has its appeals.
Nail polish and lipstick are most appealing to men when red, because it indicates health and vitality, and that was the original purpose of cosmetics. Brown, blue and black and such other colours are quite useless in attracting men.
So can we escape our instinct? Yes, but only episodically. It keeps coming back and it’s always lurking in our head if we observe it. Our prejudice is quite marked and women who are both gorgeous and intelligent are remembered for their beauty. A man who is striking-looking and intelligent is noted for his brains, even by women.
It’s banal but true: To improve their odds in the love market, men need to focus on making more money and women on looking more beautiful.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Unadulterated BS

I have nothing against Mr. Bejan Daruvala. The dude writes a weekly zodiac horoscope in the Sunday Times of India, which I'm sure a lot of people read and forget in a jiffy. However, these days Mr. Daruvala is beginning to bug me a bit - the guy has become a financial expert!!! He advises people on what to buy, sell or trade!! So much so, that he gets star billing on CNBC (dunno if he actually appears on the channel, but certainly on the website!)

I found this mildly amusing initially, but now the trend seems to be really propagating. I was stunned to find that a well educated (MBA, no less!!) acquaintance checked Mr. Daruvala's prophesies daily. Call it superstition or looking for divine guidance, but I call it sheer idiocy. Investing is tough enough as it is - but using these kind of 'astrological' guideposts is a guaranteed recipe for disaster. Check out some specific examples of divine guidance:

05-02-2010 to 18-02-2010 Repeatedly make entries and exit. The time is not good. If you follow the above rule you will make money in atleast 7 out of 10 deals.
19-03-2010 to 01-04-2010 Sell off shares that you purchased at low pricesas they will fetch good prices. Wait for the prices to fall prior to purchasing.
02-05-2010 to 19-05-2010 Not a very good time. Don't trade unidirectionally. During bullish time trade bullishly and in bearish trends trade bearish. Stick to the trends and don't act reverse to avoid risk, advises Ganesha.

Wah!! This last one really is very useful :-) I just wish to offer the poor suckers who trade according to the wishes of this dude a bit of unwanted advice - if this guy could really predict the market, would he be wasting his time telling you how to trade?

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Idiot? Certainly not...

I read this article and felt a bit confused - is this good or bad? Then I figured that this is really really bad - in fact a guaranteed fact that shows just how massively screwed up our education system is!

Nobel laureate Ramakrishnan failed IIT, medical entrance tests
5 Jan 2010, 2138 hrs IST, PTI

BANGALORE: Venkataraman Ramakrishnan won the Nobel prize in Chemistry in 2009 but decades ago he failed to clear entrance tests for both the IITs
and a reputed medical college.

At a public lecture at the Indian Institute of Science campus here, he recalled his journey from Baroda where he went to school and college before moving to Ohio University for his Ph.D. He shifted to Baroda from Chidambaram in Tamil Nadu when he was three.

He noted that he appeared for the IIT entrance test but "did not get a single seat in IIT".

"My parents were somewhat old-fashioned; they did not believe in coaching classes (in preparation for entrance test)," Ramakrishnan told a packed J N Tata Auditorium, where many could not even enter because it was crowded. They (his parents) thought coaching classes were "nonsense".

He also appeared in the entrance test for a seat in the reputed Christian Medical College in Vellore in Tamil Nadu but was unsuccessful. Giving an explanation, he said that those days, there were only a small number of seats for men.

The (really sad) takeaways I have after reading this stupendous article is
  1. Getting into IIT (and other prestigious institutes of higher education) is a function of what kind of coaching class you have been to
  2. There are no avenues within the country for potentially brilliant scientists or other skilled professionals if they do not conform to the rat race (IIT / SRCC / AIIMS / NLS etc etc)
  3. Now that I try to think hard, I cannot recall any Nobel prize winner who is from IIT. I can think of many people in finance though (self included!). To me, this is a travesty of IIT's purpose

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Thoughts in a New Year

A New Year, and a new day, week, month, and if you so believe, even new decade. A time to sit back, relax and count the innumerable pleasures of life. A time to feel the privilege, bask in joy and burst with happiness :-)

Worries on the horizon? I can not recall a single day when I was not worried about something or the other. One year out, I don't even remember 95% of the things I was worried about - feels funny that such trivial inanities should fill 95% of my waking thoughts. When I count my joys, my reasons to be happy, I find I discount them very quickly. Life moves on instantaneously towards the next goal, the next struggle, the next trivial pursuit. How much of this do I really care about? How much of this do I desire? How much can I do without? Mostly all.

The fundamental bedrock of needs - health, safety, family, friends, freedom - are all present in abundance and for free. It is up to me to savour these or take them for granted. I hope I can make the right choice!

Happy new year :-)

Monday, December 21, 2009

Tis the season to be merry...

1) Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day

2) If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you

3) It is darkest before dawn. That's the best time to steal your neighbour's newspaper

4) Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you are a mile away and you have their shoes!

5) Warning sign on a Japanese food processor: Not to be used for the other use

6) Instructions on a Chinese product used to relieve painful haemorrhoids: LIE DOWN ON BED AND SLOWLY INSERT POSCOOL UP TO THE PROJECTED PORTION LIKE A SWORD-GUARD INTO ANAL DUCT. WHILE INSERTING POSCOOL FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES, KEEP QUIET

7) Market definition: Bear market: a 6-8 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewellery and the husband gets no sex

8) Market correction: the day after you buy stocks

9) Institutional investor: someone who sells a stock big time a day or two after you have bought it, for no apparent reason

10) From an engineering exam:

Thursday, December 17, 2009

What does this mean?

If this is marketing strategy, then I'm really glad that I didn't major in marketing. This is the sign put up by Haagen Dazs in a posh south Delhi mall.


Not only do I not understand what this means, I don't think anyone else does, either!
Are they trying to stress how premium their ice-cream is? So premium that only foreigners can eat it? Well, perhaps. But then, why are you launching in India???

In my opinion, this is a really stupid and 'guaranteed to fail' method for launching any new brand. In fact, it is probably downright illegal. If I were sitting in the head office of Haagen Dazs, I would fire the top management.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

The biggest paycheck in history

There is probably a lot of happiness in becoming rich. However, there is almost certainly more happiness in being right. And its best to become very very rich by being right about something that others didn't agree with! To my mind, no one captures the essence of being right more than John Paulson. Boy, he was right. And how!

This article from the tech ticker is worth a read:

The bursting of the housing bubble cost the American economy trillions of dollars and brought Wall Street to its knees. But a few savvy investors, most notably hedge fund manager John Paulson, made fortunes betting against housing and related securities.

In The Greatest Trade Ever, Wall Street Journal columnist Gregory Zuckerman details how Paulson pocketed $6 billion as his firm made $20 billion betting against the boom from mid-2006 through early 2009. These returns included $4 billion for Paulson personally in 2007, which Zuckerman describes as the single-most lucrative payout in history.

While few, if any, will ever approach Paulson's staggering accumulation of wealth, Zuckerman says there are some timeless lessons for the rest of us, including:

Have the courage of your convictions: Paulson stuck by his thesis even as the trades didn't initially pay off in 2006, myriad housing "experts" told him he was on the road to ruin, and seemingly all of Wall Street's machinery was working against him. And when the bets starting paying off in 2007, Paulson didn't book profits and run as many advised -- and some clients begged. After shorting subprime in 2007, Paulson effectively doubled down in 2008, shifting some of his firepower to bets against Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street firms knee-deep in the MBS market.

See the forest for the trees: As an outsider to the mortgage world, Paulson was able to see the carnage coming that those on the inside missed. The ability to think independently and see beyond what the "experts" are saying is critical for individual investors because more financial bubbles are likely, Zuckerman says.Hindsight being 20-20, it's clear the housing market was a bubble and Paulson's strategy of buying cheap insurance against subprime mortgages - in the form of credit default swaps - seems like a no-brainer.

But as Zuckerman details in the book, getting the trade right wasn't easy; others tried but failed to match Paulson's stellar returns because they were either too early, had the wrong trading strategy or didn't see the bet through to its ultimate conclusion.

Furthermore, Paulson struggled in early 2006 to raise money for a fund dedicated to betting against housing securities, Zuckerman reports; Paulson was viewed as an "outsider" in the mortgage market at the time and didn't reached legendary status until after the mega-profits had been booked.

I'm a rightist libertarian!

I read a blog post about the political compass today. Nothing spectacular about it, just a simple questionnaire that lets you know a bit more about yourself. I took the test, and found no surprises :-( It was as I always suspected - I'm a boring kind of centrist guy - leaning towards libertarianism (i.e. laissez faire, live and let live etc etc) as well as economically rightist (the market may not know best, but it sure as hell knows much more than the smartest planner in the world)

Here is my map:



No politicians are like me :-(
Milton Friedman is the closest match. Does that mean I should have been an academician? I think, very very deep down, that I was cut out to be an academician or a researcher!!!



I love such games :-)

Friday, November 27, 2009

The end of a dream?

Today I spotted a Toyota Fortuner on the road - the first time I saw the car outside of a picture or a website.

Unfortunately for me, it was quite a disappointment! I first mistook it for some version of the Innova, then double checked the name, and finally figured that the damn thing does not remotely resemble a power-packed animal. No doubt it is very efficient and indeed powerful, it just does not look so! I think the key factor is the ground clearance - our desi cars have high clearance and a higher back, while the firang cars (while more elegant) have lower centers of gravity and rounded backs. A bit of crudeness is missing!

Give me the Scorpio or the Safari anyday (till then I can dream about the Land Rover and the Audi Q7)!

Some photographs:
Fortuner:

Land Rover:
Q7:
Scorpio:
Tata Safari:

How much is too much?

A question that a lot of people have asked me, and I many! How much is enough? What is the magic 'x' amount of money/assets/material stuff that if one owns, one does not desire anymore?

Clearly, unlike the ultimate answer to the question of life, the universe and everything, the answer is not 'forty two' or any other number. It cannot be, is my personal experience. When I was an engineering student, I used to think a salary of 40k per month was the end-all of most dreams. Then the investment banks came in and spoiled us with dreams of many zeros at the end of some obscene number of dollars in annual compensation. The bar kept rising higher and higher (as indeed did inflation - of houses, cars, food, everything else).

My buddy, who probably earns in fractions of millions of USD in Hong Kong, has also undergone the same phenomena. Last when we spoke of such things, he said he would be happy with something that gave him risk free income of some x amount. Needless to say, he has surpassed that target quite some time ago, but is still on the hunt for more mammon. He sometimes feels unhappy at his pace of life, but on the whole the feeling of being on-the-move energizes him.

Of course, money is not the only thing most people desire. I always like to read the stupid celebrity interviews where the subject is asked to rate by order of priority - fame, money and power. Invariably fame and power get higher billings than money. This is true for a lot of us as well. Money is just a way of keeping score!

The answer to the question therefore, in my mind, is truly what you limit yourself to - and also what you can aspire to. It is a bit like Maslow's heirarchy - when one target is met, one automatically moves to the next one, because without targets there is only boredom. Rare (and very lucky) is the person who has enough! How does this mythical dude entertain himself??

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The big bear turns positive on India

Nouriel Roubini shot to fame thanks to the global financial meltdown of 2008. He didn't make too much money out of being right (unlike John Paulson or George Soros), but certainly earned name and fame!

Since his heyday at the height (depth?) of the armageddon in October 2008, he has been as vocal as before, but not quite so prescient, as markets everywhere have ignored his calls of doom, and have rallied massively. It is interesting to see what the big bear says about Indian markets now...

And surprise surprise! The guy predicts new highs for us next year. The reasons he gives are: 1) The USD carry trade and 2) the fact that India is the top pick in the emerging economy universe and is relatively scarce (i.e. foreign investment can come into India only in the equity market, not through debt, real estate or other investment classes). Both points are well taken.

But I start getting sceptical when the sceptics start becoming believers!! Will Mr. Roubini be right this time? That is the trillion INR question :-)

Thursday, November 12, 2009

More on politics

Thanks DD for this pic - check out the gold on this 'social worker'!

Monday, November 09, 2009

This is what we have become

Politics always repulsed me. But our politicians every single day plumb new depths, and still retain their ability to deeply wound and trouble me. Today I am ashamed to be part of this venal, hypocritical and spineless country. It has a doomed future.

The immediate provocation - a common thug, whose only claim to fame is that he is related to so-and-so, with a very very calculated and cynical eye to a vote bank, commands a diktat which is illegal, unconstitutional and immoral. He says that new MLAs to the Maharashtra assembly should only take their oath in Marathi. While this in itself should be reason enough to put the guy in jail for the rest of his sorry life, what actually happens is that one particular person takes the oath in Hindi, and 4 MLAs from the thug's gang actually beat up this person in the assembly in full view of cameras, security and the country. These people are elected representatives who are supposed to frame our laws.

But what gets my goat is this - I quote verbatim: Eknath Khadse, the BJP group leader, called for a sympathetic view of the entire incident. "Nobody supports what happened today. But, there is nothing wrong in checking the footage again to verify the MNS claim that it was Azmi who had provoked them through his body language," he said. Khadse said since it was the first day of the new house, a lenient view should be taken.

Indeed. Punish the victim. This is what we have become. This is what we stand for. We have lost all humanity, dignity, and morality. We are doomed.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Alliterative flights

Mom: You need to lose all that unwanted ungainly weight
Me: Verily wanton weight
Unwelcome unwholesome weight
Ultimately ululating weight

and then later (staring ahead on an airplane):
Me: Verisimilitudinally vituperative weight
Finally my favourite: Vacuously vaccilating weight!!!

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Art.. and a new vocation :-)

The wife is very artistic, and spiritual to boot. She has demonstrated an aptitude for a dazzling new career :-) Meet Mata Gayatri Devi (drumbeat roll....).

The following pics say it all...



Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Old email folders

I happened to look through some old email folders recently (the kind that you file away while you were a young student and never look at again), and I was amazed to see that I had worked with some really great people!

Even when I was just a (supposedly lowly) intern, in a (supposedly parochial) country where I did not speak the language, there were these guys who were super friendly, considerate and helpful! While I did not value all this at the time, I really am quite touched to read those emails again as the memories come flooding back! Really, there is so much more to life than the pursuit of money and constant compromises to achieve this pursuit. Work is something we all do, and a enabling work environment really does wonders for productivity and efficiency. In my earlier avatar as a management consultant, I was (ironically!) very cynical about this mythical beast called the 'culture' of an organization. I now think it matters tremendously more than I thought. And that it exists in a good form very very rarely!

Note to self: Try to spend the rest of my days in the pursuit of happiness, and not moolah!
Amazing what some old emails can do!

Friday, October 02, 2009

Wise and Otherwise

The wife picked up this book by Sudha Murty last week. I've been reading it, and its contents make me wonder a bit at how removed I am from the pulse of the our country. For those who do not know, Sudha Murty is the wife of one of Infosys' founders and runs the Infosys Foundation, a charitable and social organization.

The book itself is very easy reading, with short 'stories' each commenting upon some idiosyncratic aspect of life in the real India. It is easy to get moved by the plight in these stories of the common person in India, grappling with poverty, social pressures and ills and yet maintaining a stoic and dignified attitude. That said, the book is not heavy at all (something I had feared) and has a liberal dose of light moments.

For me the real story was the kind of transformational work being done by the foundation and the amazingly simple and direct approach of the author. It is easy to see after reading this book why Infosys is a real revolution, and why it (and its founding philosophy) will survive forever. It is easy to throw money at charity or social work (something I've been guilty of) but difficult to devote all one's time, efforts and skills at it. This is the real greatness of the author and the foundation.

I'm going to stop shorting Infosys as a mark of respect. The company has a wonderful future!

Friday, September 25, 2009

I'm very pissed...

...with my bank (hypothetical situation). What do I do?

I ask the bank for compensation for my ire.

How much? One lakh? Ten lakhs? One crore? Hundred crore? One million crore?

Or a sextillion? (i.e one followed by 21 zeros)?

Not enough? How about ten sextillion?

Yeah! that sounds good! Ten sextillion then, is what this gentleman decided!

To call this absurd is akin to saying that Mallika Sherawat is ugly. i.e. highly understated!!!

When melancholy strikes...

...one remembers some old time poignant movies. E.g.

  1. Ijaazat: The story of a couple and how they discover each other when its too late. For the story click here
  2. Parinda: The story of two brothers and how fate intervenes to tear them apart. For story, click here
  3. One of the all time greats: The English Patient. Lyrical, forbidden love which is doomed. How humanity transcends nationality. Story here
  4. On the Waterfront. I could'a been a contender. I could'a been somebody! Story here

The common theme running in these classics is that of loneliness. Terrifying, slow loneliness. Attractive, alluring loneliness.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Very good interview

To complete the troika of bad, good and best, here is the final quote from the same website (but a different analyst):

Q: What do you do now for someone who has been left out in this rally for the past couple of months?

A: Conventional wisdom would suggest that as more and more people who have been left out get frustrated, they get sucked into the market and when the last of them gets sucked in that is when this market will break. Having said that, for me it has been a period of frustration, we are now less in cash than we were earlier much against my better judgement. We are clearly not looking at new ideas, at new stocks but adding a little bit to existing stocks in the midcap space which were looking cheap earlier, which are still looking cheap. My fundamental sense still tells me that there are too many dichotomies in this market, in this purely liquidity led. On the one hand you have consumer price inflation running away with itself but nobody believes that interest rates will go up. Commodity prices are heading higher but nobody believes that global economic recovery will suffer. The world has been through its worst economic crisis over the last twelve to fifteen months but everyone believes that the worst is over. The party is now well and truly on. I don’t think we are going to find too many people coming onto your channel and saying the next band is down. Everyone is saying that the next band is up and rightfully so because a lot of levels have been taken out. But this is a dichotomy. China is another huge imponderable here, three or four months ago, everyone was saying that Chinese growth will bailout the global economy but today China seems to be slowing down. But the view of the world has not changed. It is like one should not worry about China, everything will be fine. It is like the question you asked about the monsoon a little while earlier. The monsoon has not recovered but one should not worry, everything is fine, this market will go up. So that is the mood and it is the liquidity that is driving this mood and who are you or I to buck that trend.

And this is how it should be done...

This is a different guy on the same question:

Q: What about Tata Motors, can the current price be justified? Are you revising your price targets there?

A: Fundamentally, it’s difficult to recommend buying Tata Motors at these levels. First of all the biggest chunk of revenue at about 65-70% still comes from JLR which is geared to the US and Western European markets. That revenue and earnings stream remains quite unpredictable so there is this huge degree of variability in the earnings forecast for Tata Motors. With that kind of a risk I think, these valuations may not be justified at the current levels. In the auto’s side, there are far better opportunities which have a far steadier earnings stream and a lesser degree of risk associated with the business which one can buy. It’s difficult to recommend a risky earnings stream at high valuations at this point in time.

This is a decent answer - the guy talks about headwinds for the company, says that financial performance is difficult to predict, and that a risky earnings stream trading at high valuations is not to be recommended. Anyone who buys after this knows that she is taking a pure punt. This is what a good analyst should do.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

What is bullsh***ing 'analyst'

Just read this 'expert' on business channel CNBC's website. I quote:

Tata Motors a good buy?

Betadpur said, it was difficult to figure out a valuation for Tata Motors. “We have looked at the street estimates. It is all over the place as far as earnings per share (EPS) for 2011, our own numbers are around Rs 20 and we can give it a 30 multiple and that gives you Rs 600 - 30 multiple seems a little too much but that is where we are. If we say everything goes well for the stock, Jaguar-LandRover picks up by 2011, that is generating a lot of cash flow for the company and the EPS goes from our current estimates 20 to 30 and then you give it a 30 multiple, you get to Rs 900-1,000 target. That is what some people on the street are saying that Tata Motors can get to Rs 1,000. That is how we believe on the numbers but I don’t think everything is going to go positive for this company. “

What a jerk!!

1) He is not saying anything

2) He is not even providing any justification for his dumbass arguments - why should it trade at 30 times? What will make EPS increase 50%? Cash flow does not equate EPS. So what specifically will make EPS rise? What about the debt overhang? What about historical valuations?


Jokers like this really get my goat. And what business does CNBC have putting such brain-dead pretenders on air? The irony is that about 20,000 people would have read this and will call their brokers tomorrow with orders to buy Tata Motors, saying they have heard (on authority) that it will soon touch Rs 1000!!

They deserve the slaughtering they are going to get!


PS: I have nothing against Tata Motors. I think they make damn good SUVs!!

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Mo' on co-bro

Suggestions from Icon-o-blast:

Coveted brother
Colossal brother
Concocted brother
Convoluted brother
Constipated brother
Conundrum-like brother

Follow up from me:
Contrarian brother
Copulating brother

Monday, August 31, 2009

Desi English?

Heard today - "He is my co-brother".
wtf??

What is a co-brother? Is it a shortened version of cousin brother? In that case why no co-bro? Or is it colleague who is thick as a brother? I was bursting to ask, but politely nodded in sage understanding instead.

Ah, the eternal mystery of life!

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

To no purpose...

Bored and missing the wife (she is off to her parents for a few days), I sit brooding about the general direction of my life. Office occupies roughly 70% of my weekdays, but I find work and office trivial and trite - it strikes me as funny to see other people make the same mistakes as I did and not get penalized even a tenth. I no longer feel rage at the unfairness of it all. I just look at it as a chore that I must finish - the results do not interest me.

Movies and entertainment bore me. Of the dozen or so movie channels that I see on my overpriced DTH satellite service, I can find exactly zero that are playing movies of any interest. The less I say about the trash broadcast on the general entertainment channels the better - if I were dictator for a day I would just ban the whole lot of them (and throw their content directors into dungeons to boot). Ekta Kapoor would be tortured and then exiled forever.

I have finished reading the Perry Mason that I've put off for close to a week, and I dont feel like getting started on George Soros' new book. It looks ponderous and preachy, and I'm not in the mood for that.

I dont feel like researching any stocks. I have run out of money to bung into the market.

I cannot do household chores - it is not efficient for me to do so now. I cannot run the washing machine since the clothes line is full of wet clothes. I cannot run the dishwasher since it does not have a 100% load. I have heated and eaten dinner, made and drunk tea. I have had a couple of chocolates. Nothing more for me to do.

I dont feel like browsing the internet. I will visit the same sites again and again.

I feel like speaking to a few friends - but they are probably asleep at this hour.

Life certainly seems pretty empty right now! I need a hobby.

(I enjoy writing this blog though! Finally!!)

Sunday, August 16, 2009

You scratch my back I'll scratch yours

The Business Standard carried this op-ed piece yesterday. It brought to the fore what one already feels in one's bones - we are a nation of insidious insiders. We operate on the philosophy of you-scratch-my-back-i'll-scratch-yours; justice, national interest and fair play be damned. Sample this
- we have 55 billionaires for every trillion $ of gdp (more than the US, approx. 3 times Germany and approximately 3.5 times Brazil). The only country that exceeds us is Russia, and we all know that that country is run by crooks.
- the fact that most (27, to be exact) of our elected 'youth' politicians are the sons / daughters / nephews or brothers-in-law of other politicos.

The article in question raises some probing questions into the national soap opera being played out right now - the ugly saga of the 2 brothers - and its repercussions on national energy security. Had it not been for the younger brother being peeved (and rightfully so, in my opinion!) with not getting what was promised to him, no one would have raised some pertinent questions on the way the gas - a national resource - is being priced.

The way the contract works is quite simple - the gas belongs to India, and the contractor (RIL in this case) is compensated for the capital expenditure incurred and operating expenses in extracting the gas via a revenue share on the gas sold. Obviously, the contractor has an incentive to pad capital costs, since this enables recovery of more revenues from the government. This conflict is supposed to be contained via a review mechanism where a 4 member committee approves the capex. Now, the fact is that the capex per cc of gas DOUBLED in 2 years (from 2004 to 2006) . The 4 wise men who stamped this were found to be related (indirectly, of course) to RIL and sister concerns. The government's independent verifying arm, the CAG, has publicly said that it has not been given access to the contractor's data for the last 18 months, despite asking for it repeatedly!

If this is not bad enough, the oil ministry is siding quite openly in the legal process with one side of the litigants. While there is nothing wrong in this, the rub comes here - it is also openly hurting the interests of NTPC, another national company and our largest power producer. The country’s top law officials, the Attorney General and the Solicitor General have openly criticised Deora’s ministry for having hobbled the public NTPC from pursuing its legal battle against RIL.

It is not my case to take sides in the gas dispute - legality aside, it seems to me that the national interest would be served better by NOT honouring the contract between RIL and RNRL. However, I do think that we need a lot more scrutiny and a lot more transparency to prevent India from turning into another oligarchic banana republic.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Ferozeshah Kotla

Early one morning, a few of us landed up at the ruins of the citadel of Ferozeshah in New Delhi. Some pics (courtesy Anjaani Manzil):

The Khooni Darwaza!! Aurangzeb hung the head of his brother Dara Shikoh here. The Brits also killed Bahadur Shah Zafar's 2 sons and grandson here after the Mutiny of 1857
Empire building??
Ruins of the day
the still functioning mosque
the Baoli or the stepwell

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Excerpts from Poe

`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! -
Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted -
On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore -
Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

`Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil!
By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore -
Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn,
It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore -
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?'
Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.'

Probably true! This is as good as it gets.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Bashing Goldman Sachs Is Simply a Game for Fools: Michael Lewis

From the moment I left Yale and started working for Goldman Sachs, I’ve felt uneasy interacting with those who don’t.

It’s not that I think less of Goldman outsiders than I did while I remained among you. It’s just that I feel your envy, and know that nothing I can do or say will ever persuade you that I am no more than human.

Thus, like many of my colleagues, I have adopted a strategy of never leaving Goldman Sachs, apart from a few brief, spasmodic attempts to make what you outsiders call “love” or “the beast with two backs.” Goldman recognizes how important it is for its people to replicate themselves. We bill no performance fees for the service.

Today, the sheer volume of irresponsible media commentary has forced us to reconsider our public-relations strategy. With every uptick in our share price it’s grown clearer that we who are inside Goldman Sachs must open a dialogue with you who are not. Not for our benefit, but for yours.

America stands at a crossroads, and Goldman Sachs now owns both of them. In choosing which road to take, ordinary Americans must not be distracted by unproductive resentment toward the toll-takers. To that end we at Goldman Sachs would like to dispel several false and insidious rumors.

Rumor No. 1: “Goldman Sachs controls the U.S. government.”

Every time we hear the phrase “the United States of Goldman Sachs” we shake our heads in wonder. Every ninth-grader knows that the U.S. government consists of three branches. Goldman owns just one of these outright; the second we simply rent, and the third we have no interest in at all. (Note there isn’t a single former Goldman employee on the Supreme Court.)

What small interest we maintain in the U.S. government is, we feel, in the public interest. Our current financial crisis has its roots in a single easily identifiable source: the envy others felt toward Goldman Sachs.

The bozos at Merrill Lynch, the dimwits at Citigroup, the nimrods at Lehman Brothers, the louts at Bear Stearns, even that momentarily useful lunatic Joe Cassano at AIG -- all of these people took risks that no non-Goldman person should ever take, in a pathetic attempt to replicate Goldman’s financial returns.

For too long we have allowed others to emulate us. Now we are working productively with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and the Congress to ensure that we alone are allowed to take the sort of risks that might destroy the financial system.

Rumor No. 2: “When the U.S. government bailed out AIG, and paid off its gambling debts, it saved not AIG but Goldman Sachs.”

The charge isn’t merely insulting but ignorant. Less responsible journalists continue to bring up the $12.9 billion we received from AIG, as if that was some kind of big deal to us. But as our CFO David Viniar explained back in March, we were hedged. Our profits from AIG “rounded to zero.”

People who don’t work at Goldman Sachs, of course, find this implausible: How could $12.9 billion round to zero? Easy, but you just need to understand the mathematics.

Let’s assume AIG transferred $12,880,560,250.34 of taxpayer money to Goldman Sachs. A Goldman outsider, asked to round this number, might call it $12,880,560,250.00. That’s not how we look at it; at Goldman we always round to the nearest $50 billion, so anything less than $50 billion rounds to zero.

Think of it that way and you can see that $12,880,560,250.34 isn’t even close to not rounding to zero.

Rumor No. 3: “As the U.S. government will eat the losses if Goldman Sachs goes bust, Goldman Sachs shouldn’t be allowed to keep making these massive financial bets. At the very least the $11.4 billion Goldman Sachs already has set aside for employees in 2009 -- $386,429 a head, just for the first six months -- is unfair, as the U.S. taxpayer has borne so much of the risk of the wagers that generated the profits.”

Really, we don’t know where to begin with this one. It is wrong-headed in so many different ways!

Let’s begin with the idea that the taxpayer is running a bigger risk than we are. The billions he stands to lose are trivial; after all, they round to zero.

The real risk, when you think about it even for a minute, is the risk we take ourselves: that Goldman will cease to exist and we will cease to be Goldman employees. To flirt with such tragedy we obviously need to be paid.

Rumor No. 4: “Goldman employees all look alike.”

Several recent newspaper photos have revealed that a surprising number of Goldman Sachs workers are white, male and bald. That non-Goldman people glance at such photos and think “Holy crap, they even look alike!” just shows how deeply anti- Goldman bigotry runs in American life.

We at Goldman represent unique clusters of DNA; if we bear some faint surface resemblance to one another, and to creatures from the 24th century, it is only because our superior powers of reasoning lead us to hold in our minds exactly the same thoughts, at exactly the same time.

A shared disinterest in growing hair, for instance, isn’t a coincidence of nature but an expression of healthy like- mindedness.

“The world is a pool table,” our naked-headed CEO likes to tell us. “And all the people in it are either stripes or solids. You alone are the cue balls.”

Rumor No. 5: Goldman Sachs is “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

Those words are of course taken from a recent issue of Rolling Stone magazine and they are transparently false.

For starters, the vampire squid doesn’t feed on human flesh. Ergo, no vampire squid would ever wrap itself around the face of humanity, except by accident. And nothing that happens at Goldman Sachs -- nothing that Goldman Sachs thinks, nothing that Goldman Sachs feels, nothing that Goldman Sachs does --ever happens by accident.

(Michael Lewis is a columnist for Bloomberg News and the author of “Liar’s Poker,” “Moneyball” and “The Blind Side,” soon to be a major motion picture. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Sona

Was randomly surfing youtube, when I chanced upon an old favourite. One thing led to another, and I figured that this is a very talented and cute chick:






Tuesday, July 07, 2009

80% pass

Everyone and their uncle in the media are running around hoops on how the budget is a 'missed opportunity', not so good etc. etc. I do not agree with this.

For one, the budget is what it was meant to be - a bald recital of the Government's accounts over the next year. It is not the place to make grandiose policy announcements, or to give punters a chance to pump up some stocks and dump others.

Secondly, it prescribes the right dose for India's ailing economy - fiscal stimulus (albeit directly in the hands of the consumer). I felt the removal of the tax surcharge was a really good thing (since the section affected by this is never part of any traditional vote-bank and thus easy pickings for all grasping politicos). It also removed another regressive tax - the FBT. And it committed to introduction of the most efficient goods and sales tax (the GST) from next year.

Third, the budget does not sugar coat any of the hard messages - fiscal deficit is going to be high at 6.8% of GDP (much higher if one accounts for the deficit properly), tax revenues are going to be down, and disinvestment is going to be a slow and tortuous affair, large doses of government spending is going to be required to shore up the rural economy. Were the manic punters bidding up our markets hoping any different? If so, they deserve what they got from the market.

A study in contrasts

Last week, I saw 2 movies - The Hangover and (I am ashamed to admit) Kambakht Ishq.
The Hangover is a really good movie - oddball, corny and really good for guffaws. The perfect weekend fare, intelligently written, well acted and perfectly paced. Kambakht Ishq, on the other hand, made me cringe in disbelief and embarassment.
How could anyone have
  1. written this unadulteratedly regressive, stupid and intelligence-insulting script (if one can call it a script)
  2. acted in such a vehicle and
  3. spent millions producing it

These are true mysteries. There are no songs to speak of, the 'special appearances' are especially dumb, and this movie is a walking talking advertisement for how not to waste time. The movie is full of caveman cliches (the hero shuts up the heroine by smooching her, he can sleep with all and sundry but she has to be pristine, the 'friend' runs her life and marriage on the whims of her friend, the heroine's mother is at fault for her stuck up and tight arsed behaviour, the heroine realizes the folly of her wicked ways in the end - I could just go on and on!) that I just hated.

In fact, by writing about it, I feel I am somehow denigrating this blog. Rather extreme!!

Monday, July 06, 2009

Neemrana

Neemrana is a nice weekend getaway from Delhi - just a hundred kilometers away and good for a break in routine. It is essentially an old fort, which has now been restored and enhanced into a heritage resort. Some pictures from a mobile phone camera:

The Mukut Bagh
Check out the swimming pool at bottom left
The facade
Vista from the top
Beautiful by moonlight
Traditional dancers

Friday, June 26, 2009

Ambiguity as sin

I read John Le Carre's most recent novel, A Most Wanted Man, entirely in a book store. As often before, I was enraptured by its tight plot, totally believeable characters and most of all by its sense of innate morality. It also had the old Le Carre characteristic - the good guys never win (unless it is Smiley - but then Smiley was such a loser in life that he could be forgiven his wins).

As with his other truly memorable books, the story also disturbed me. Because it was so real, and because it probably happens so many times in this world we live in. I looked, perhaps for the first time, upon this world of ours from the point of view of a devout follower of Islam. And did not find it to be a safe or even reassuring world. Innocence is a sin, might is right and morality is a liability. The cruel logic of Guantanamo Bay overrides the human virtues of compassion and justice. We live in a world of justice by strength, justice of the winner, justice as fiat.

Usually I find Le Carre books morally ambiguous - everyone has a point of view which can be understood, Smiley or Karla. But not in A Most Wanted Man. Sometimes ambiguity has to be recognized as what it is - a sin. Something is right, and another thing is wrong. And one has to do the right thing. The right thing is humanity and compassion.

As a character in the book says - five percent of him was bad. But if I look at myself, can I say the same? For me, its probably closer to fifteen. Or even twenty. This is as true for me or you as it is for the character. Recognizing this, and making allowance for it - this is what will make life better for all of us.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Interesting analysis

This post comes from material posted on Yahoo! finance
Professors Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity) have produced a great series of charts that compare the progress of this worldwide recession with the Great Depression of 1929.
Effects on world industrial output and world trade volumes are worse than the Great Depression of 1929!
The good news, however, is that equity markets the world over have been quick to price all this in, perhaps protecting us from the slow painful slide seen last time around (fast and painful, or slow and painful? i prefer the former!)
And add to that the massive (I mean MASSIVE) monetary and fiscal stimulus laid on by governments and central banks. Raises the hope that today's green shoots are really the oaks of tomorrow!!

Service economy? Ha ha

There are no two ways about it - our service economy sucks! Getting a broadband connection at home (this is the most premium plan, and with the 'best' operator) is proving to be a headache. This is after my earlier broadband connection would provide such terrible connectivity that I would find it quicker to use a data card on my computer!

This is not just about broadband, or even telecom. I don't understand why we do not have a good, professional service economy. Where if I am told that xyz will happen on a certain day, it does happen on that day (or even that week)! This is true even of the largest retailer in India, who commits delivery on a certain day but actually delivers on some other day.

Earlier, this was a given - because everything was Govt. (or should I say bureaucracy) owned, and the Govt. certainly does not care about service. It is much more difficult to understand now - we have private companies with a profit motive, we have differential pricing, we have pretty much all elements in place for great service. But do we get it? Unfortunately, the answer is no!

My hypothesis is that this stems from 2 key factors - a) the chaos and unpredictability of daily life in our cities. I cannot predict to within 30 minutes the time it will take me to get from place A to place B, or whether I will find parking there, or whether the guy I'm supposed to meet or the item I'm supposed to collect will be there at all! In such an environment, even a small variable can effect output tremendously. Therefore service providers are unable to predict things themselves b) we are horrible at communication and are very short term thinkers. We think saying something conveniently now (Yes surely I will deliver today / Guaranteed madam, kaam aaj ho jayega) is enough to satisfy the customer, rather than say something not so pleasing, but then keep the promise. Ergo, we are short term optimizers rather than long term strategics.

Whatever the reason, our service economy sucks!

Thursday, May 21, 2009

99

I recently came across the following (true) facts:
  1. Statistically speaking, all girls in Delhi are called either a) Pooja or b) Neha
  2. All taxi drivers in Delhi are thieves
  3. Bhojpuri movies' 'dashing young heroes' are usually middle aged, balding and paunchy men
  4. There is a thriving satta bazaar in Delhi
  5. Mumbai goons have no chance against a) Delhi police and b) the Delhi chill
  6. Cyrus Broacha is funnier in real life than in a funny role

All these were gleaned from a watching of the latest (and only in a long long time!) Bollywood noveau middle house cinema offering - to wit - 99.

The movie is a good timepass watch, entertaining in parts, and with good, believeable characters (except Soha Ali Khan as the eponymous Pooja, in a role so wooden that environmental enthusiasts will embrace her as worth preservation!). Mahesh Manjarekar, Vinod Khanna, Boman Irani and a really good guy called 'Kuber' provide solid performances. The scripting is good, and the situations (while over the top) are believeable.

Definitely worth a dekko.

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Gaga over Yaga

Yaga Venugopal Reddy, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2003-2008 is being credited as being the 'saviour of the Indian financial system' from the impact of the global meltdown (a newspaper articles' words, not mine!). The dude sure seems pretty prescient in hindsight, since he moved swiftly (and with little regard to the netas in the government, it must be noted) to quell what seems now to be an obvious bubble in real estate prices and unsecured credit by raising interest rates. No wonder the guy is in great demand as a speaker at various international fora on financial system stability and the role of central banks.

What Reddy did during his tenure seems all the more amazing now since at that time, it seemed quite a contrarian and rather obstinate thing to do. Indeed, if Greenspan had done what Reddy did, perhaps we would not have this catastrophe of a credit crunch on our hands and perhaps many millions of jobs would not be lost. It is therefore instructive to see what Reddy thinks now.

Interestingly enough, in an interview with Mint, he says: "that the underlying inflationary pressure in India is very high" and that "one should take into account the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and not the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) while taking monetary and fiscal measures. In contrast to WPI, the country’s most widely tracked weekly inflation index, CPI reflects the price of goods at the retail level. For the week ended 25 April, WPI inflation was 0.70%, but CPI for industrial workers continued to be high at 9.63%, for February 2009 (the latest available number)." Bang on!! I always laugh when I hear strange numbers each week on CNBC: Inflation is now 0.2%, now 0.5%!! Huh?? Nothing seems to be becoming cheaper (except petrol, the price of which was reduced in February), so how can this be?

He goes on to say "the challenge before the authorities is unwinding the packages in due course. Otherwise, vested interests (will) develop in some stimulus packages and that will add to the inflationary pressures." Further: "You cannot do recovery at any cost. Your recovery has to be at an appropriate price.” The guy is still being farsighted and rightly indentifies that the focus on blind copying of 'stimulus' by our government (for populist reasons perhaps? or for bailing out property 'developers' who really deserve to be bankrupt) could be sowing the seeds of future pain and degrowth in India.

I wish we had more courageous (and sensible!) people like Yaga at the helm of economic policymaking!

Friday, May 01, 2009

Celebration!! and a new beginning...

This is the 200th post on nothing-spectacular! When I started, I had no idea that this blog would become such a natural and integral part of my life. I hope this journey continues...

This post is special for another reason. The beta version of the Five X Capital website is launched! Please visit http://www.fivexcapital.in and send in your comments / suggestions / brickbats. The site is till date the only thing I have to show for 7 years of education and 3 degrees (BTech, MTech in Computer Science and MBA)!!!! A humbling experience...

Green shoots notwithstanding...

Not wanting to be a party pooper, I can't help but feel uneasy while publishing the following pictures (obtained from The Business Insider). While this may of course not happen, it would hurt no one to be cautious!
First up, a chart showing that a 30% rise does not mean that the tide has turned: such rallies were common in other long term downtrending markets (Nasdaq 2000, Nikkei 1990s, Dow Great Depression, and current credit crisis). Of course, this argument falls flat if one argues that the current credit crisis is not as severe as the others - but it seems to me that it should definitely be more severe than the tech bust of 2000-01?
Next, a really long term chart of the S&P Composite - note that all bottoms are formed when the index moves substantially below the long term trend line. Will it defy history and stop at the line, or will it go below, as it always has?
Points to ponder! Is cash going to be king?

Reverie of a hazy afternoon

Its really hot outside - the hottest April in Delhi in 50 years, the media would have me believe. It is torture to do anything in such heat - anything but sip a cool drink, that is. The telly bleebs on while I listlessly check the time and trawl web pages on enabling the login/password feature on the wife's company's website.

On comes a corny song from the rustically named 'Singh is Kingg'. Neha Dhupia lights up the screen. I flip channels to IPL II (private thought: what a disaster!). The mind lingers still on 'Singh is Kingg'. I think - hey! I rather like Neha Dhupia. I wonder why this is so. I dont really like Katrina Kaif. Nor Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. I positively detest Shilpa Shetty. Sonam Kapoor is ok. Vidya Balan is embarrassing. Why do I like Neha Dhupia?? I think its for the same reason I like Gul Panag.

I think I like her because of her roles - Mithya. 12:30 ki last local. Some shady Kareena Kapoor movie where she is the elder sister. I like her (as I do Gul Panag) because she seems to be able to hold her own in a tough world. Able to give back as good as she gets. Able to stand out, and not blend in with the crowd. A strong lady. Trying to be different (in weird ways though - by undressing and making provocative statements). But hey, still different. Still unique.

The mind slowly focuses back on reality. The login/password feature beckons. I trawl more pages. The heat gets worse.